Russia invades Ukraine

[opendoor]

Barring a nuclear strike or a strike on NATO territory, there's zero chance NATO gets dragged into direct confrontation. It's just not going to happen; they'd let all of Ukraine get rolled over before that happened.

As for NATO support; obviously they're not doing everything possible to support Ukraine, because the US doesn't want to compromise their own military in any way. They want to maintain the redundancy to be able to successfully fight a 2 or 3 theatre conventional war, and they're not going to give that up. And despite their rhetoric, that was basically always the game plan. They want to weaken Russia as cheaply as possible while limiting the chance of the war spreading outside of Ukraine and Russia.

Yeah, it's depressing and super cynical, but that's basically how superpowers work.

[burn_this_city]

I could see Poland and other willing Baltic countries join the fray. Perhaps not NATO but a coalition of NATO countries that are fully invested in stopping the disease from spreading further.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I could see Poland and other willing Baltic countries join the fray. Perhaps not NATO but a coalition of NATO countries that are fully invested in stopping the disease from spreading further.

Maybe. I guess they could think that they could attack and the threat of NATO retaliation would prevent Russia from doing anything too stupid like dropping a nuclear bomb. But I don't think they're going to do anything the US doesn't allow them to, and that is such a huge risk for the US, I don't see it ever happening.

I just don't think any NATO country actually sees Russia as a real military threat at this point. So that would mean they'd have to want to engage in direct confrontation with a nuclear power simply for Ukraine's sake. I don't see any country doing that.

[RoadGame]

My heart agrees with Huntingwhale and my head agrees with opendoor. I'm not even Ukrainian and the developments of the past few days have preoccupied my thoughts to the point of it being a distraction from day to day. What does a person do? I give more money to a Ukrainian friend who is part of a network sending supplies to units in Bakhmut, I buy striped perogies from Tisto Factory... on one level I wish I had the fitness, training and lack of personal entanglements necessary to go over and help for real but it's a fantasy. So I sit, read in abject horror and donate money. It seems ridiculous from that position saying weeks like this are hard, but for anyone emotionally invested in the outcome here this is turning out to be quite a week.

[FlamesAddiction]

NATO is apparently conducting their largest air exercise in history next week in Europe.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/07/...se-over-europe

They are actually cancelling hundreds of commercial flights in order to do the exercise, which seems really extreme. They must feel that it is really important to do that.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Barring a nuclear strike or a strike on NATO territory, there's zero chance NATO gets dragged into direct confrontation. It's just not going to happen; they'd let all of Ukraine get rolled over before that happened.

As for NATO support; obviously they're not doing everything possible to support Ukraine, because the US doesn't want to compromise their own military in any way. They want to maintain the redundancy to be able to successfully fight a 2 or 3 theatre conventional war, and they're not going to give that up. And despite their rhetoric, that was basically always the game plan. They want to weaken Russia as cheaply as possible while limiting the chance of the war spreading outside of Ukraine and Russia.

Yeah, it's depressing and super cynical, but that's basically how superpowers work.

Yup, pretty much.

We'll all feel better when the finish line to this stupid conflict approaches it's end. The day Ukraine joins NATO (or frankly, has a nuclear deterant) will be a huge sigh of relief.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Barring a nuclear strike or a strike on NATO territory, there's zero chance NATO gets dragged into direct confrontation. It's just not going to happen; they'd let all of Ukraine get rolled over before that happened.

As for NATO support; obviously they're not doing everything possible to support Ukraine, because the US doesn't want to compromise their own military in any way. They want to maintain the redundancy to be able to successfully fight a 2 or 3 theatre conventional war, and they're not going to give that up. And despite their rhetoric, that was basically always the game plan. They want to weaken Russia as cheaply as possible while limiting the chance of the war spreading outside of Ukraine and Russia.

Yeah, it's depressing and super cynical, but that's basically how superpowers work.

And Putin knows that so long as Ukraine is in open conflict they will not accept them into NATO. Ukraine could get all the way back to pre-2014 borders and Putin will still keep the war going because if it stops, Ukraine could join NATO. Putin needs to die

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by Firebot

This is the video in question i am talking about

https://twitter.com/user/status/1666825630946566146

Unfortunately Russia has real footage now instead of faking.

Russian anti tankers were prepping pretty hard for the arrival of western tanks. Not surprised if they are proficient rank hunters
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-reve...-1793421?amp=1

[icarus]

Godspeed to the Ukrainian soldiers, that their nerve and stamina won't desert them and likewise that wisdom and insight won't elude their commanders.

My dream is that the will for change comes from within Russia but sadly I just don't see it happening. Putin has elevated himself to greater autocratic rule (and protection) than any of the Romanov tsars.

Apropos of nothing, I was in Lisbon last weekend and outside of one of the main attractions there, the Cristo Rei statue (basically Dollar Store-copy of Rio's Cristo Redentor) was unmissable graffiti for anyone visiting: Z, Free Donbass, and Ukraine + USA = terroristas. I'm pissed off just thinking back on it. But if that kind of stuff can be found in Europe you only wonder how strong it must be in Russia itself still.

[CaptainCrunch]

We do have what looks like the start of the summer offensive, and there are from the sounds of it a lot of probing attacks happening.



As always the offensive side is going to take a lot of casualties against a dug in enemy. Its going to be bloody.



Theres still no significant air superiority on either side, which means that there's going to be a lot of stumbling into traps.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

We do have what looks like the start of the summer offensive, and there are from the sounds of it a lot of probing attacks happening.



As always the offensive side is going to take a lot of casualties against a dug in enemy. Its going to be bloody.



Theres still no significant air superiority on either side, which means that there's going to be a lot of stumbling into traps.

I think the expectations of Russians running is too high, and the expectation of losses way too low based on my Twitter feed.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I think the expectations of Russians running is too high, and the expectation of losses way too low based on my Twitter feed.

Might be time to delete twitter.. it's doing a good job of painting a hellscape right now

[CroFlames]

I've been thinking recently that a strong response is needed to the destruction of the dam. If NATO doesn't respond, it will empower the enemy to continue with atrocities. Maybe they shell an actual nuclear power plant next?


The air power exercise is Germany is a good start. But again, I wonder if a naval battle group or two being sailed into the Black Sea might deter some of this brazen behavior.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I've been thinking recently that a strong response is needed to the destruction of the dam. If NATO doesn't respond, it will empower the enemy to continue with atrocities. Maybe they shell an actual nuclear power plant next?


The air power exercise is Germany is a good start. But again, I wonder if a naval battle group or two being sailed into the Black Sea might deter some of this brazen behavior.

None of what you suggested is a strong response, IMO.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

None of what you suggested is a strong response, IMO.

Invasion is out of the question, as is a bombing campaign. What would you suggest?



I think with multiple NATO fleets parked on their doorstep and a strongly worded message might get the point across.



If they still don't listen, then it's a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That really is the extent of it, unless we want the world to end.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Invasion is out of the question, as is a bombing campaign. What would you suggest?



I think with multiple NATO fleets parked on their doorstep and a strongly worded message might get the point across.



If they still don't listen, then it's a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That really is the extent of it, unless we want the world to end.

I suggest the strongest of finger wagging, which is really all of those things are at the end of the day.

A no fly zone is all well and good, but who enforces it and how.

[Texas]

"The night is dark and full of terrors"

For the third night in a row: Russian chatter is about resumed offensive operations by the Ukrainians, during the night, in the Zaporizhzhia area.

Some important remarks:

- Almost all footage is spread by Russian sources, so focused on Ukrainian losses, of course.
Most losses were already a few days old and/or some were known losses shown from another perspective.
The losses also sometimes show that the Ukrainians are further South than expected.
Where you see one vehicle, there were more that were not affected...

- Today, Ukraine released some footage from both southern directions:
In the last 3 days, Ukraine managed to destroy 2x TOS-1A, one in Velyka Novosilka Axis and one in Bakhmut Axis. This was unseen previously during this war.
This helps us determine that Ukrainians are tight on OPSEC, but the little footage they released shows that more is going on.

- The amount of destroyed vehicles:
Ukraine has received thousands of vehicles, one thousand+ vehicles for the new brigades, "The Nine", alone.
This is conventional warfare against a layered defense. Ukraine will lose a lot of vehicles. That is part of an offensive. The numbers the Russians show are nothing compared to the amount Ukraine has for this offensive.
But what is more important: people. The soldiers. Most destroyed vehicles seem to be destroyed by mines. You see that the hatches are open, no blood, almost no bodies. So the vehicles did what they are intended to do: protect the soldiers inside. Vehicles can be replaced, humans cannot.
And the hard truth is maybe difficult to accept: loss of human lives are foreseen and expected during an offensive.

Conclusion:
The Russian side is spreading footage of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, while the Ukrainian side keeps a tight OPSEC and continues working behind the scenes.
Experts in conventional warfare are rare today and it has been decades since we have seen a war of this magnitude. So, keep this in mind as you closely monitor this war.

Stay Calm and Wait for GeoConfirmations!

http://geoconfirmed.org

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/sta...htmode%3Dfalse

[Firebot]

In regards to the Ukrainian offensive, it's really important to read between the lines, especially when using Russia as the source, because Russian sources is all we have right now.

This is really one of the only sources available, and obviously very much filled with blatant propaganda and false info, but every once in a while you get tidbits of what is actually going on.

https://t.me/s/rybar

What is known, it that Ukraine has broken through the first line of defense on several sections of the southern front, and Russians had some significant casualties running through the minefields behind them. Once the breakthrough occurs, expect lots of info flowing out and true panic.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

We do have what looks like the start of the summer offensive, and there are from the sounds of it a lot of probing attacks happening.



As always the offensive side is going to take a lot of casualties against a dug in enemy. Its going to be bloody.



Theres still no significant air superiority on either side, which means that there's going to be a lot of stumbling into traps.

Yeah, I am sure they expected and knew there would be high losses when the offensive kicked off. It's sad, but I am sure a lot of the people in the first wave knew there was a really big chance they were not coming home.

If you just looked at the photos from the after math of the allied invasions of continental Europe during WW2 without context, it would look like the offensive was a failure with all the losses sustained, but they won the war. It was a heavy price and a lot of sacrifice, but they won.

I have no doubt that Ukraine is sustaining losses in the field and are paying a heavy price, and of course Russia is going to use those images for their propaganda, no one should let those images give them the perception that Ukraine can't be victorious in the long run. I am worried for them because I don't know how it will play out in the end, but as of right now, I don't think they are in a worse place now than they were before the offensive started.

[Firebot]

There's been quite a lot of news in the past 24 hours, most notably Ukraine has wiped out 20KM of front lines, and liberated over 100km2 of land. Outside of that initial column that Russians showed 7 angles of while claiming each were new attacks, Russian sources have been quite alarmed and silent.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1667648741740892161

https://twitter.com/user/status/1668000262974328832

Also Russia MoD demanded Wagner to sign over all their soldiers and Wagner under direct Russian control

https://twitter.com/user/status/1667875675972182016

This powder keg is about to blow over and it won't be pretty in Russia