Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 03-27-2015, 02:09 PM   #101
fundmark19
#1 Goaltender
 
Join Date: May 2009
Exp:
Default

Well I just bought a house unseen for 6k over list price with multiple offers less then 24 hours on the market. Looks like people are still buying houses!
fundmark19 is offline  
Old 03-27-2015, 02:20 PM   #102
Travis Munroe
RealtorŪ
 
Travis Munroe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

6k more than asking - not necessarily more than true value
__________________

OFFICIAL CP REALTOR & PROPERTY MANAGER
Travis Munroe | Century 21 Elevate | 403.971.4300

Residential Buying & Selling
info@tmunroe.com
www.tmunroe.com

Property Management
travis@mpmCalgary.com
www.mpmCalgary.com
Travis Munroe is offline  
Old 03-28-2015, 02:06 AM   #103
JRW
Draft Pick
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
6k more than asking - not necessarily more than true value
Considering the big ass housing bubble, that's highly unlikely....
JRW is offline  
Old 03-28-2015, 03:36 PM   #104
Travis Munroe
RealtorŪ
 
Travis Munroe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

I don't mean to come across the wrong way, but... considering you know nothing of the situation it seems like a very bold statement to make
__________________

OFFICIAL CP REALTOR & PROPERTY MANAGER
Travis Munroe | Century 21 Elevate | 403.971.4300

Residential Buying & Selling
info@tmunroe.com
www.tmunroe.com

Property Management
travis@mpmCalgary.com
www.mpmCalgary.com
Travis Munroe is offline  
Old 03-28-2015, 06:38 PM   #105
JRW
Draft Pick
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
I don't mean to come across the wrong way, but... considering you know nothing of the situation it seems like a very bold statement to make
On the contrary that is not a bold, but a very easy statement to make. Think of what I'm saying here.
JRW is offline  
Old 03-28-2015, 10:35 PM   #106
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW View Post
On the contrary that is not a bold, but a very easy statement to make. Think of what I'm saying here.
In this discussion, and online in general, it can be very hard to tell when someone is being sarcastic.


I would advise you to just spell out your position.
Kavvy is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Kavvy For This Useful Post:
Old 03-29-2015, 01:06 PM   #107
calgarywinning
First Line Centre
 
calgarywinning's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Field near Field, AB
Exp:
Default

JRW resident housing bubble expert. If there's a bubble he'll solely defy the market and pop it.
calgarywinning is offline  
Old 03-29-2015, 02:04 PM   #108
JRW
Draft Pick
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
In this discussion, and online in general, it can be very hard to tell when someone is being sarcastic.


I would advise you to just spell out your position.
I'm surprised this needs to be spelled out;

It is generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc. that there is a 30 to 60% housing bubble in Canada.

HENCE it is unlikely, impossible I would say to get a fair price for a house in this market. Realtor1 was talking about true value; no houses are selling for their true value currently, especially in Calgary.

When and if the bubble bursts, then he might honestly start using that term.
JRW is offline  
Old 03-29-2015, 05:43 PM   #109
Travis Munroe
RealtorŪ
 
Travis Munroe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

comical

Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.

If said economists, banks, analysts, etc have held true to their belief in this bubble, they have most likely been renting for at least 5 years. Add up all those rent payments and they could have owned, experienced the bubble and would still have come out on top.
__________________

OFFICIAL CP REALTOR & PROPERTY MANAGER
Travis Munroe | Century 21 Elevate | 403.971.4300

Residential Buying & Selling
info@tmunroe.com
www.tmunroe.com

Property Management
travis@mpmCalgary.com
www.mpmCalgary.com
Travis Munroe is offline  
Old 03-29-2015, 06:44 PM   #110
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW View Post
I'm surprised this needs to be spelled out;

It is generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc. that there is a 30 to 60% housing bubble in Canada.

HENCE it is unlikely, impossible I would say to get a fair price for a house in this market. Realtor1 was talking about true value; no houses are selling for their true value currently, especially in Calgary.

When and if the bubble bursts, then he might honestly start using that term.
I have seen many reports of a 15-20% bubble in the Canadian economy, however:

If it is "Generally accepted by many analysts, banks, economists etc" that there is a 30 to 60% bubble , please provide a few links to back this up from different respectable institutions and economists showing a greater then 50% expected drop? A respectable economists isn't "Mr Joe who runs a blog" but someone who has appeared in/on a major news outlook, or someone you can provide credentials for.

Last edited by Kavvy; 03-29-2015 at 07:44 PM.
Kavvy is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 09:04 AM   #111
fundmark19
#1 Goaltender
 
Join Date: May 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
comical

Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.
Don't forget if we believed what all Analysts say we would have $200 oil right now and housing would be even more expensive in this city.
fundmark19 is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to fundmark19 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-30-2015, 10:11 AM   #112
Red
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Yes the analysts have been wrong with timing this As have many people, including me. They did not account for the BOC dropping prime from 4.25% to 1% when the US bubble was bursting. It saved Canada as the big crash was turned to merely a blip on the screen. Can they do that again?
Travis, not sure if you were in the business of selling houses back in 08. You do appear to be very young so I am assuming that you haven't experienced a down market yet. If all you have seen is the last few years of best RE boom this province has ever seen then I can see why you'd have the opinions you have. It's easy to get caught up.

30% of buyers have been missing since January. Expect more as the layoffs are felt across all sectors of the economy in the months ahead. Hard to be optimistic.
Red is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 12:07 PM   #113
Travis Munroe
RealtorŪ
 
Travis Munroe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red View Post
Yes the analysts have been wrong with timing this As have many people, including me. They did not account for the BOC dropping prime from 4.25% to 1% when the US bubble was bursting. It saved Canada as the big crash was turned to merely a blip on the screen. Can they do that again?
Travis, not sure if you were in the business of selling houses back in 08. You do appear to be very young so I am assuming that you haven't experienced a down market yet. If all you have seen is the last few years of best RE boom this province has ever seen then I can see why you'd have the opinions you have. It's easy to get caught up.

30% of buyers have been missing since January. Expect more as the layoffs are felt across all sectors of the economy in the months ahead. Hard to be optimistic.
I was a Realtor in 2008.... I have experienced the downs.
Oddly enough, certain realtors can actually strive when the market is down. All of the part time or think it is quick easy money Realtors fade really quick when the market heads south. This opens the door for plenty of potential new clients who lost their overnight Realtor. While there are less transactions taking place than a up market, there are less Realtors to facilitate the transactions that do go on.
__________________

OFFICIAL CP REALTOR & PROPERTY MANAGER
Travis Munroe | Century 21 Elevate | 403.971.4300

Residential Buying & Selling
info@tmunroe.com
www.tmunroe.com

Property Management
travis@mpmCalgary.com
www.mpmCalgary.com
Travis Munroe is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 01:31 PM   #114
Red
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
I was a Realtor in 2008.... I have experienced the downs.
Oddly enough, certain realtors can actually strive when the market is down. All of the part time or think it is quick easy money Realtors fade really quick when the market heads south. This opens the door for plenty of potential new clients who lost their overnight Realtor. While there are less transactions taking place than a up market, there are less Realtors to facilitate the transactions that do go on.
That was more like a short slow down more than a down market. This is why our opinions differ. I have seen the early 90s and even the not so hot early 00s. It was very hard to sell a house then. People get turned off RE in a hurry when their jobs are not secure.
Red is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 04:55 PM   #115
stampsx2
First Line Centre
 
stampsx2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

I'm just glad I didn't listen to all that housing bubble talk back in 08. I wouldn't be in the position i'm in right now if I had. Went and bought a house anyway and got some appreciation and equity out of it.

Last edited by stampsx2; 03-30-2015 at 04:58 PM.
stampsx2 is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 05:26 PM   #116
JRW
Draft Pick
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
comical

Said economists, banks, analysts, etc have also been saying this for years and years and years.
It is not for me to say if there is a bubble or not but true value is what that home is worth today, not what some crystal ball predicts it to be worth in 5 years.
What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
If said economists, banks, analysts, etc have held true to their belief in this bubble, they have most likely been renting for at least 5 years. Add up all those rent payments and they could have owned, experienced the bubble and would still have come out on top.
Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.

Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000

Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000

Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"

Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
JRW is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 05:38 PM   #117
TSXCman
First Line Centre
 
TSXCman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Exp:
Default

Some of your numbers are a bit funny though like renting for $1800 should be at least $2500 for that house.

I've built a very comprehensive spreadsheet that I've been valuing properties with, to get an input (1 time charges and down payment) , monthly input (monthly average of insurance, utilities, prop tax, mortgage payments, etc) less equity returned. What I am left with is a number to compare to the local rentals in the neighbourhood. Then I ask if it is a large enough difference to justify investing all of the down payment for.
To me, in the areas I look at, the number is close to justify a home purchase, but I haven't found a place that I like enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW View Post
What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.



Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.

Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000

Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000

Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"

Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
TSXCman is online now  
Old 03-30-2015, 06:16 PM   #118
stampsx2
First Line Centre
 
stampsx2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRW View Post
What I find comical is discounting something simply because it last a long time. Great logic there.



Really?? Ok let's runs some fairly average numbers to see if they really would be ahead IF the bubble bursts and they have to sell before the market creates another bubble (if ever). Lets use your assumption of 5 years.

Rent house for 5 years at $1800/month: $108 000

Buy house, 500k house, 200k down, assume interest rate 2.6% for 5 years.
30% reduction in asset value, just by itself = $150 000. So right away your costs are much more than just renting.
Additional costs of owning:
Property taxes $3500/year = $17 500
Servicing 300k loan = $36 000
House maintenance 2000/year = $10 000
Home owners insurance 1000/year = $5000

Total cost of owning = $218 500
I don't think that's called "coming out on top"

Obviously you have a pretty strong bias, but then again I hardly expect a realtor to be an objective source on this matter.
So you're saying it's better not to buy because this time the housing bubble may burst? You should re do those same numbers if the bubble didn't burst and see who comes out ahead.
stampsx2 is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 06:21 PM   #119
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

edit nm

Last edited by Kavvy; 03-30-2015 at 10:57 PM. Reason: bahhh
Kavvy is offline  
Old 03-30-2015, 06:25 PM   #120
calgarywinning
First Line Centre
 
calgarywinning's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Field near Field, AB
Exp:
Default

I thought single bedroom apartments were like $1250 to $1500. Where can you rent a house for 500k for 1800? $2500 would be the minimum.

While your equation is bias, it assumes a static point or a low point in the market place. The economy picks up pace and the value of the house is restored over time.

Meanwhile if you which to change your situation you can sell your house for the loss and buy something else for the same loss for that static moment in time.
calgarywinning is offline  
 

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:41 AM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021