Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Oh look, Cowley Ridge is being de-commisioned and won't be rebuilt because *gasp* COST

http://calgaryherald.com/business/en...after-23-years


“TransAlta is very interested in repowering this site. Unfortunately, right now, it’s not economically feasible,” Wayne Oliver, operations supervisor for TransAlta’s wind operations in Pincher Creek and Fort Macleod, said in an interview.

“We’re anxiously waiting to see what incentives might come from our new government. . . . Alberta is an open market and the wholesale price when it’s windy is quite low, so there’s just not the return on investment in today’s situation. So, if there is an incentive, we’d jump all over that.”

That's EXACTLY what I said in my last post.

I think this is more posturing than economics. TransAlta really wants the government to sit down and negotiate buyout rates for the existing coal infrastructure and announce incentives for new green power.

Until that happens I don't think you will see TransAlta announce much of anything.

[peter12]

So of course the decommissioning is occurring because of high costs. If it wasn't, then they wouldn't be asking for a subsidy. And when you introduce market-distorting incentives, then of course, all economic behaviour by firms will become increasingly influenced by posturing.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Funny, you think of those things as once you build them, they are good to go, but it sounds like they need lots of maintenance.

Since they have exceeded their planned life, I'm sure shutting them down was on TransAlta's books. However, the timing of the decision sure seems like a big FU to Notley and a push to get the government to release the details that industry requires to make future investment decisions.

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Funny, you think of those things as once you build them, they are good to go, but it sounds like they need lots of maintenance.

I guess moving parts don't move forever. .. And you need a crane to bring the generator into the shop ( maintenance hurdle).

Trouble with the being a pioneering project for wind farming in Alberta is that you get to find out the difference between predicted performance and actual performance.

About six years ago I attended an info session regarding a wind farm project proposed around drumheller/ Hanna. The presenter remarked how the first wind farms in Alberta (i.e. Near Cowley) were actually put in places with too much wind. Turns out the first winds farms were put in the wrong place because higher average winds were wearing out the equipment.

His project was searching for a site where lower speed winds would blow for longer periods of the daytime... and he describe how they learnt from the engineering decisions of the day.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

#thetriggering

Is there a safe space for these sensitive souls to go?

It's cute you use terms you probably don't fully understand to hide the fact that you're completely unable to debate the substance of the argument.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

FYI the only one calling all mohawks criminals is Rubecube. Burns comment had nothing to do with lumping everyone into one group but it suits your argument much more if he did so you can play the "don't be a racist card". Bloody SJWs.

So wait, smuggling cigarettes and selling weed aren't criminal acts in this country? You sure you're up to date on the Criminal Code?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I wouldn't say "being played' so much as "being paid". It worked very well in BC, so it is rather obvious that American interests would find further investment in screwing Canada over to be worth the money.

It's not just American investments. Lawyers all over the country have realized what an absolute cash cow title cases are and are milking them for all they're worth.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's cute you use terms you probably don't fully understand to hide the fact that you're completely unable to debate the substance of the argument.

Thanks for turning yet another thread into a thread about racism.

[northcrunk]

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's not just American investments. Lawyers all over the country have realized what an absolute cash cow title cases are and are milking them for all they're worth.

Anti-lawyerite.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Thanks for turning yet another thread into a thread about racism.

Pretty sure it was the racist comment that did that, but you're welcome!

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Anti-lawyerite.

Haha, nah it's just capitalism. Many moons ago I had thought I wanted to go to law school and when talking to some lawyers out here they told me to get into aboriginal title law because that's where all the money was.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I think this is more posturing than economics. TransAlta really wants the government to sit down and negotiate buyout rates for the existing coal infrastructure and announce incentives for new green power.

Until that happens I don't think you will see TransAlta announce much of anything.

I disagree (to some extent). Sure there is posturing, but with the spot price for power where it is and the cost to put in a development right now it makes it economically unrealistic. Again, I've looked at the economics and it's not a big moneymaker.

As biased as they are, Transalta just confirmed everything I said with that release. Sure they may be using it as a soapbox to get their point across, but it doesn't change the fact that wind generation is a marginal investment at the moment in Alberta.

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Haha, nah it's just capitalism. Many moons ago I had thought I wanted to go to law school and when talking to some lawyers out here they told me to get into aboriginal title law because that's where all the money was.

.................................

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

.................................

Okay that was funny.

[GGG]

Subway Double meet!!!!!

Oil is over $40.

Its sad that how $40 oil seems like great news

[Fuzz]

If, 2 years ago, someone told you we would be jump[ing and celebrating $40 oil, you'd call them crazy.

Also, interesting forecast chart from last year...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48972.html
Not there yet....

[Senator Clay Davis]

Loonie up 9 cents since the middle of January. Hopefully no one panicked and locked in tons of exchange contracts at like $1.38 now that it's threatening to go back under $1.30.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If, 2 years ago, someone told you we would be jump[ing and celebrating $40 oil, you'd call them crazy.

Also, interesting forecast chart from last year...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48972.html
Not there yet....

I get access to a lot of these forecasts at work. They're all garbage. Don't get me wrong, the reasoning these guys present seems to always make sense but it's all a completely fruitless exercise.

I haven't seen one that forecasts that this is the new norm but I think that's what I would believe the most.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by polak

I haven't seen one that forecasts that this is the new norm but I think that's what I would believe the most.

I don't know if it's just finance people trying to be bullish/optimistic or that they are disconnected from it all...

But I definitely hear that all the time from industry people, that this is the new norm/new paradigm for the next decade (or two!).

Our company just posted this comparing 1985 to what is being forecasted and how this is going to be a 20-year rut.