Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Why? Do you take pleasure in seeing the Canadian economy collapse and people losing their jobs and their homes?

(sigh, the difficulty of sarcasm transmissivity through forums posts.)

Let me try again.




As an interesting sidebar though, would people like the BoC to keep rates/policies in place to keep the bubble going? As I watched the US bubble collapse, the natural inclination is to feel bad for all the people losing their homes. But then on the other hand, a LOT of these people couldn't afford a house and never should have tried to buy one in the first place. So should the rest of the tax payers pay for their bad investment decisions/give them a free or cheapo house?

[chemgear]

Actually, the more I think about it – I would suggest that yes, having interest rates go up sooner rather than later would probably be a good thing.


The Canadian economy added over 100,000 jobs last month – the most since 2002. Inflation report will come out Friday but it’s been going at a fairly decent clip recently. I don’t think increasing interest rates will instantly automagically cause the “Canadian economy to collapse and people to lose their jobs/homes.” That’s a bit of fear mongering to be honest. Current interest rates are at emergency levels as indicated by the Bank of Canada. They are absolutely unsustainable into the future.


The low rates have motivated every man, woman and child (back allocated mathematically speaking) in Canada to borrow up to $41,000+ in non asset (house, car, etc.) debt during the greatest economic downturn in 50 years. Worse than the US peak before their housing crash. So that is not mortgage/car debt, it’s credit cards, pay day loans, lines of credit, etc. Housing prices are not following market/logical fundamentals. The longer interest rates are this low, the worse that’s going to get. Right now, 15% of all Canadian mortgage holders already face “hardship” if rates go to something like 5.25%. You want to keep rates super low to get more people to buy homes they can’t afford and make that percentage even higher? Isn’t this like déjà vu from the US crash – can you imagine the crash if the easy access to credit when on for another year at the peak of their bubble?!


Why would you/the Bank of Canada want to prop up something that is fundamentally unsustainable/untenable?

(I’m not pointing at “you” specifically; the pronoun is kinda in the royal sense of people cheering for low rates for longer I guess, hehe.)

I’m just thinking out loud here, but wouldn’t cheering for low rates for an even longer period be like handing out more rope for the average Canadian to hang themselves with?


Oh . . . and almost forgot:





But who knows, I could certainly be wrong – I do tend to focus on historical fundamental numbers/statistics/trends. Perhaps the obvious US analogy is too easy and tempting to use. If so, I’ll be more than happy to catch up to the average Canadian take out a pay day loan for 140% of my annual income – party time! Or better yet, I’ll go finance a Lexus LFA and if things go bad you all should feel sorry for me and bail me out when I can’t pay for it. I’ll start collecting your bailout money now!

[Kev]

Originally Posted by Shazam

People do know that many variable rate mortgages don't actually have their payments change when rates change, right?

Yeah, but some do, it depends how you set it up.

[cmyden]

Calgary on pace for the lowest May SFH sales since the new millennium...

http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_t...millenium.aspx

We're on schedule to have the lowest number of May single family home sales since the beginning of the new millenium. For the period May 1 - 25, there are 1033 sales. The next closest was 2008 with 1056. The highest was 2006 with 1627.

New listings for the same period are third-highest.

On the inventory side of the equation, it doesn't seem like we'll hit that 6,000 SFH benchmark in May. It currently sits at 5,680, on pace to hit around 5,800 by month's end (at mid-month it was looking like closer to 5,900-6000ish).

[Sylvanfan]

Hmm, I'm a bit surprised that there were more sales in May of 2009 than in 2008. I would guess the value of the sales from 2008 was higher than the 2009 total. In May of 2008 prices were still pretty high but the recession really hadn't sunk it's teeth into Calgary yet. Whereas May 2009 it was well in effect, although the lending rates were extremely low too.

[Fobby]

I don't know what this means, but someone I know had their house on the market for 1 day, and it was sold for more then the listed price and it wasn't priced for quick sale either.

[red sky]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Calgary on pace for the lowest May SFH sales since the new millennium...

http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_t...millenium.aspx




On the inventory side of the equation, it doesn't seem like we'll hit that 6,000 SFH benchmark in May. It currently sits at 5,680, on pace to hit around 5,800 by month's end (at mid-month it was looking like closer to 5,900-6000ish).

There were 33 houses sold yesterday though. Compared to the last few days that was quite high but that is most likely just timing due to the long weekend perhaps.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Hmm, I'm a bit surprised that there were more sales in May of 2009 than in 2008. I would guess the value of the sales from 2008 was higher than the 2009 total. In May of 2008 prices were still pretty high but the recession really hadn't sunk it's teeth into Calgary yet. Whereas May 2009 it was well in effect, although the lending rates were extremely low too.

I believe free money had started at that point. Historical numbers here, halfway down the page:

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listings?p...=127&pageId=19

May 2009
Average: $436
Median: $390
# Sold: 1584

May 2008
Average: $480
Median: $419
# Sold: 1368

[chemgear]

Heh, the CREA is tossing in the towel and actually forecasting next week that prices will drop "about three percent next year."

Considering what extreme of the spectrum they sit on . . . interesting times are certainly ahead.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business...066/story.html

"And we expect to go through a period where these large price increases are largely behind us, and we expect prices to remain stable as incomes and savings catch up."


I don't know about you guys, but I'm sure as heck looking forward to our income increasing 25-50% this year (along with a new massive savings account) - it's been foretold by the CREA!

[Wookie]

I should request my raise tomorrow to get in ahead of everyone else.

[red sky]

90 sales in the last two days has propped total monthly sales to 1123 for May. May will still fall below April for sales but the month isn't looking as bad as originally thought.

[chemgear]

Anybody get their massive raise from the realtors yet?

Best growth in the economy in 10 years this quarter, some talk about 0.50% June increase in interest rates but I doubt it - guessing just 0.25%

http://www.financialpost.com/news-se...tml?id=3092092

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

http://www.vancouversun.com/business...066/story.html

"And we expect to go through a period where these large price increases are largely behind us, and we expect prices to remain stable as incomes and savings catch up."


I don't know about you guys, but I'm sure as heck looking forward to our income increasing 25-50% this year (along with a new massive savings account) - it's been foretold by the CREA!

I hate that article, especially the title: "Prices to stop rising as quickly". Just an awkward way of saying "prices will not rise" or "prices will drop".

[chemgear]

It does read pretty bad. I agree with you - but we all know how realtors have to "spin" things so the average ###### thinks that they have to keep buying so realtors can continue to get their commissions. "Prices will continue to go up up up! In fact, they will do so by significantly increasing negative numbers!"

The nonsensical "it's different here, there is oil here, omg there is no more room, you can't ever go wrong with real estate, the immigrants will save us, buy now or be priced out forever, etc." silliness is always pathetic. Show me real numbers, fundamentals, immigration/growth numbers, and statistics that you can bank on - not the handwaving BS.

Though to be honest, I do find it amusing sometimes too when their arguments make no logical or economic sense and they're flapping in the wind and everybody knows it.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

It does read pretty bad. I agree with you - but we all know how realtors have to "spin" things so the average ###### thinks that they have to keep buying so realtors can continue to get their commissions. "Prices will continue to go up up up! In fact, they will do so by significantly increasing negative numbers!"

The nonsensical "it's different here, there is oil here, omg there is no more room, you can't ever go wrong with real estate, the immigrants will save us, buy now or be priced out forever, etc." silliness is always pathetic. Show me real numbers, fundamentals, immigration/growth numbers, and statistics that you can bank on - not the handwaving BS.

Though to be honest, I do find it amusing sometimes too when their arguments make no logical or economic sense and they're flapping in the wind and everybody knows it.

Actually I am a Realtor and I disagree with the article and CMHC's claims. I also disagree with your assertion that every Realtor thinks the same way and says prices will always go up.
You're just as bad as the article, as you're the guy on the other end of the spectrum painting every Realtor with the same brush and acting like we're all out to rip off the public, while you flap around your stupid emoticons for effect without substance.

When the market is going up you're no where to be found, because you're the guy always screaming "don't buy!", "real estate is in a bubble!", "it's not a good investment!", "home ownership is a scam!!"

Most reasonable people and reasonable Realtors, know very well to ignore you dramatics on either side, because the truth is usually somewhere in the middle and we're all just making predictions anyway.
You guys who act like you always know that the market is going up or crashing are delusional and only in the debate for effect.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Actually I am a Realtor and I disagree with the article and CMHC's claims. I also disagree with your assertion that every Realtor thinks the same way and says prices will always go up.
You're just as bad as the article, as you're the guy on the other end of the spectrum painting every Realtor with the same brush and acting like we're all out to rip off the public, while you flap around your stupid emoticons for effect without substance.

When the market is going up you're no where to be found, because you're the guy always screaming "don't buy!", "real estate is in a bubble!", "it's not a good investment!", "home ownership is a scam!!"

Most reasonable people and reasonable Realtors, know very well to ignore you dramatics on either side, because the truth is usually somewhere in the middle and we're all just making predictions anyway.
You guys who act like you always know that the market is going up or crashing are delusional and only in the debate for effect.

Fair enough, I haven't come across very many realtors that hold such a few. Most I've spoken to in my mls searches in the last year hold firm to the (unrelenting) upward trend belief (along with the published realtor association releases.) And hey, that could certainly may be the face one puts out to a potential client. Oh, I'm always around and checking stuff out in the real estate market.

I'm certainly not an expert but I am a home owner and I have rental property as well in fact. Maybe looking to buy sell/again in the next year or so as well.

I think I'd be a bit of a hypocrite if I were saying your listed quotes of absolutes. The discussion/market effects interest me – it’s why I joined the forums/thread only just in March. I don't think real estate is doomed and it's time to start eating your neighbor before the world ends (not sure when I said that.) Just probable for some uncomfortable corrections are incoming from my minimal understanding of economics and market fundamentals. If that makes me sound (uber) dramatic . . . well, not sure what to say there.

LOL, the emotes are there illustrate that my comments aren’t overly serious (nor do I take myself very seriously) as forum posts can often be misconstrued or the tone misunderstood.

Regardless, I personally appreciate your viewpoint as a realtor – it is refreshing and insightful as I’m certainly not in that position myself.

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by chemgear

It does read pretty bad. I agree with you - but we all know how realtors have to "spin" things so the average ###### thinks that they have to keep buying so realtors can continue to get their commissions. "Prices will continue to go up up up! In fact, they will do so by significantly increasing negative numbers!"

The nonsensical "it's different here, there is oil here, omg there is no more room, you can't ever go wrong with real estate, the immigrants will save us, buy now or be priced out forever, etc." silliness is always pathetic. Show me real numbers, fundamentals, immigration/growth numbers, and statistics that you can bank on - not the handwaving BS.

Though to be honest, I do find it amusing sometimes too when their arguments make no logical or economic sense and they're flapping in the wind and everybody knows it.

I am a Realtor and I disagree with your portrayal of Realtors. You can't all paint us with the same brush. I advise all of my buyer's the possibility and likelihood of prices dropping in 2011 and 2012.

Perhaps you need to find better Realtors to talk to?

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by fotze

We should have a top 10 Calgary douchy realtor list. Just based on what they look like on their ads.

I nominate that one old dude who I believe is wearing a Dick Tracy hat with two cougs in behind him.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by fotze

We should have a top 10 Calgary douchy realtor list. Just based on what they look like on their ads.

Good thing I'm Vancouver. Can't put me on your list suckas!

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Good thing I'm Vancouver. Can't put me on your list suckas!

hehe!