This is a rebuild

[1qqaaz]

The Flames didn't draft a franchise center in their last rebuild. They only had one top 5 pick. Not putting all the blame on Bennett, but without him succeeding, there was almost going to be somewhat limited playoff success.

The Flames also failed to draft/develop an elite goalie. But this is tough to criticize, because there's no way to reliably do this. Personally, I believe the problem here has been more with development than with drafting.
But these goalies are largely what end rebuilds. The Rangers got Shesterkin. Tampa got Vasilevsky. Pittsburgh got MAF back in the day. And Washington became a goalie factory in general.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The Flames didn't draft a franchise center in their last rebuild. They only had one top 5 pick. Not putting all the blame on Bennett, but without him succeeding, there was almost going to be somewhat limited playoff success.

The Flames also failed to draft/develop an elite goalie. But this is tough to criticize, because there's no way to reliably do this. Personally, I believe the problem here has been more with development than with drafting.
But these goalies are largely what end rebuilds. The Rangers got Shesterkin. Tampa got Vasilevsky. Pittsburgh got MAF back in the day. And Washington became a goalie factory in general.

They tried. Gillies and/or Parsons not panning out was a huge setback.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The Flames didn't draft a franchise center in their last rebuild. They only had one top 5 pick. Not putting all the blame on Bennett, but without him succeeding, there was almost going to be somewhat limited playoff success.

The Flames also failed to draft/develop an elite goalie. But this is tough to criticize, because there's no way to reliably do this. Personally, I believe the problem here has been more with development than with drafting.
But these goalies are largely what end rebuilds. The Rangers got Shesterkin. Tampa got Vasilevsky. Pittsburgh got MAF back in the day. And Washington became a goalie factory in general.

Taking McDonald instead of Demko was idiotic at the time, and well...
Bennett not being the 1C we needed
Monahan was a solid 1C but became injury prone
Fox screwing the team that drafted him
Trading futures for Hamonic and missing a chance to grab Dobson
Also Hamilton not fitting in here really screwed us on having a 1D but Treliving got a solid return of younger core players for him at least

If in 2019 this team has:

1. Demko breaking in
2. Healthy Monahan
3. Stud 1C Bennett
4. Fox in the system
5. Dobson in the system
6. Tkachuk and Gaudreau
7. Lindholm and Hanifin (and no Fox was not pivotal in acquiring these two IMO)

We probably have a lot more than two playoff series wins (plus one play in round win)

[saillias]

Next time lock up the young core players at first available opportunity. No more playing around with bridges when you know what you have. No trying to get cute thinking about some supporting cast player you'd like to have on your 3rd line if you save 2 mil on your star. If the Flames get laughed at or criticized because they sign the next "Tage Thompson" deal that's 100% fine with me. They need to be smarter about asset management.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Taking McDonald instead of Demko was idiotic at the time, and well...
Bennett not being the 1C we needed
Monahan was a solid 1C but became injury prone
Fox screwing the team that drafted him
Trading futures for Hamonic and missing a chance to grab Dobson
Also Hamilton not fitting in here really screwed us on having a 1D but Treliving got a solid return of younger core players for him at least

If in 2019 this team has:

1. Demko breaking in
2. Healthy Monahan
3. Stud 1C Bennett
4. Fox in the system
5. Dobson in the system
6. Tkachuk and Gaudreau
7. Lindholm and Hanifin (and no Fox was not pivotal in acquiring these two IMO)

We probably have a lot more than two playoff series wins (plus one play in round win)

Even if we take out Fox, wow that is a nice core. The biggest miss imo is smith and hickey over Point. 2 chances at him after the first round and we didn’t even bother. That to me would’ve been franchise altering, then there’s less pressure on Bennett to be a 1C.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

Even if we take out Fox, wow that is a nice core. The biggest miss imo is smith and hickey over Point. 2 chances at him after the first round and we didn’t even bother. That to me would’ve been franchise altering, then there’s less pressure on Bennett to be a 1C.

If we're going to think about what ifs, then look no further than the selection of Tyler Wotherspoon at #57 in the 2011 draft. The player selected immediately after him? Nikita Kucherov.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

Even if we take out Fox, wow that is a nice core. The biggest miss imo is smith and hickey over Point. 2 chances at him after the first round and we didn’t even bother. That to me would’ve been franchise altering, then there’s less pressure on Bennett to be a 1C.

Hard to predict that one. Hell TB didn't take him twice in the second round when they had the chance as well. Neither of their second rounders played in the NHL.

[Lanny_McDonald]

The draft is very much a crapshoot. You can pick any draft and find players that should have been picked earlier and others that should have been picked later.

[Calgary4LIfe]

This is the way I look at the Flames entering this past season:


Flames are a good team because they have a lot of good players. They are not a great team because they are missing great players at key positions.



They need to come out of this with BETTER players at key positions, rather than become a younger version of what this team is right now.



Also, in no way is the draft a crapshoot. There are outliers, and there will always be outliers because there is so much else that goes into development, but this is an 18 year old draft. If it was a 20 year old draft, there would be less outliers, but outliers will still exist. Maybe I am misinterpreting the definition of crapshoot, but one only needs to look through the drafts for about 1 min to realize that good players end up getting drafted higher in the draft, and the lower you go the less of those there are, but the more busts and tweeners are found. You can't point to the outliers and proclaim that the draft is a crapshoot if you are being intentionally blind to the incredibly strong correlation that you see in every single draft going back decades and decades.


Some teams make it more of a crapshoot (like Edmonton, especially going back a few years) because those teams are just terrible at drafting. Some teams are really good at drafting. It doesn't mean that you hit on all your picks, but good teams are hitting on more picks more often than bad teams are, and this is fairly consistent year over year. Regime changes tend to upset that consistency somewhat, as new GMs like to bring in their own trusted scouts and so on. Calgary has had a relatively easy time at this as they have normally hired first time GMs, so Calgary hasn't seen as sudden of a change. For instance, the Oilers went out and fired a large portion of their scouting department that one year, and it looks like it started paying off (they have been drafting better of late, but let's see what happens over a longer time-frame).


At any rate, hopefully Calgary can find top-end players at key positions over the next few drafts. That's going to be the most critical aspect of whether or not this rebuild is successful or not. I trust Conroy not to artificially try and accelerate things like Treliving tried to do (picks for Hamilton which were good value, but an accelerated move, picks for Hamonic which were awful value, and constant trading of picks to fill holes or create depth, which then ends up creating depth issues down the road).


Flames are a good team right now with a lot of good players. They did a massive sell-off, and they are still competing with most teams. That speaks volumes to how deep this team is. It just doesn't have that elite top-end, and this hurts this team win enough to go on a run. That's the challenge here, and the the challenge is finding enough of these in the next few drafts, as there is no way the Flames are likely to be bad enough to continue picking that low without Conroy making purposeful moves to tank (which he won't).



TLDR;

Find the good players in the next few drafts Conroy, and get us a cup!

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

If we're going to think about what ifs, then look no further than the selection of Tyler Wotherspoon at #57 in the 2011 draft. The player selected immediately after him? Nikita Kucherov.

They had Kucherov and Gaudreau on their list as players to target in later rounds. Sounded like they didn't expect Kucherov to go that early, and didn't want to let Johnny slip away.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

This is the way I look at the Flames entering this past season:


Flames are a good team because they have a lot of good players. They are not a great team because they are missing great players at key positions.



They need to come out of this with BETTER players at key positions, rather than become a younger version of what this team is right now.



Also, in no way is the draft a crapshoot. There are outliers, and there will always be outliers because there is so much else that goes into development, but this is an 18 year old draft. If it was a 20 year old draft, there would be less outliers, but outliers will still exist. Maybe I am misinterpreting the definition of crapshoot, but one only needs to look through the drafts for about 1 min to realize that good players end up getting drafted higher in the draft, and the lower you go the less of those there are, but the more busts and tweeners are found. You can't point to the outliers and proclaim that the draft is a crapshoot if you are being intentionally blind to the incredibly strong correlation that you see in every single draft going back decades and decades.


Some teams make it more of a crapshoot (like Edmonton, especially going back a few years) because those teams are just terrible at drafting. Some teams are really good at drafting. It doesn't mean that you hit on all your picks, but good teams are hitting on more picks more often than bad teams are, and this is fairly consistent year over year. Regime changes tend to upset that consistency somewhat, as new GMs like to bring in their own trusted scouts and so on. Calgary has had a relatively easy time at this as they have normally hired first time GMs, so Calgary hasn't seen as sudden of a change. For instance, the Oilers went out and fired a large portion of their scouting department that one year, and it looks like it started paying off (they have been drafting better of late, but let's see what happens over a longer time-frame).


At any rate, hopefully Calgary can find top-end players at key positions over the next few drafts. That's going to be the most critical aspect of whether or not this rebuild is successful or not. I trust Conroy not to artificially try and accelerate things like Treliving tried to do (picks for Hamilton which were good value, but an accelerated move, picks for Hamonic which were awful value, and constant trading of picks to fill holes or create depth, which then ends up creating depth issues down the road).


Flames are a good team right now with a lot of good players. They did a massive sell-off, and they are still competing with most teams. That speaks volumes to how deep this team is. It just doesn't have that elite top-end, and this hurts this team win enough to go on a run. That's the challenge here, and the the challenge is finding enough of these in the next few drafts, as there is no way the Flames are likely to be bad enough to continue picking that low without Conroy making purposeful moves to tank (which he won't).



TLDR;

Find the good players in the next few drafts Conroy, and get us a cup!

The other thing about drafting is teams that are labeled good at drafting change over the years too. It's very hard to always be great at drafting. Boston had an amazing run for years back in 03 to around 07, they haven't been great since. Tampa had a great stretch, that seems to have dried up. The Stars seem to be the best now but there is no guarantee that they will keep it going.

Odds always favor the top 5 picks and 1st overall is by far better than even 2nd overall. Sure, you might get Bennett, but you are more likely to get a Barkov top 5 than a Kucherov in the 2nd round. You need a few hits in the mid rounds and the best teams always find good players, but it's hard to find Mackinnon, McDavid, Matthews types past the 1st few picks.

For once, I wish the Flames would get lucky in the lottery. 1 1st overall pick can change everything.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The Flames didn't draft a franchise center in their last rebuild. They only had one top 5 pick. Not putting all the blame on Bennett, but without him succeeding, there was almost going to be somewhat limited playoff success.

The Flames also failed to draft/develop an elite goalie. But this is tough to criticize, because there's no way to reliably do this. Personally, I believe the problem here has been more with development than with drafting.
But these goalies are largely what end rebuilds. The Rangers got Shesterkin. Tampa got Vasilevsky. Pittsburgh got MAF back in the day. And Washington became a goalie factory in general.

The Flames had the pieces, they just didn't perform. Gaudreau did a lot of the work as a #1 center, he just didn't have the size to actually play center.

Gaudreau often led some of the best lines in hockey. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Lindholm was the best first line for many stretches.

It was a bad combo of bad luck, untimely poor performances, and coaching that was all over the place. Marstrom not falling apart in 2022. Tkachuk not getting injured in 2020. If Covid/Sutter doesn't happen then Gaudreau and Tkachuk are likely still Flames. Maybe the Flames have a coach that eventually tries Tkachuk/Bennett together and eventually moves up Zary and the other prospects.

If this was the lineup right now, the Flames would be a success:

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Zary
Tkachuk-Bennett-Mangiapane
Backlund-Coleman-Toffoli

That's a winning lineup. The lack of success had nothing to do with pulling the rebuild short, lack of personal, or missing a #1 centre.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Flames had the pieces, they just didn't perform. Gaudreau did a lot of the work as a #1 center, he just didn't have the size to actually play center.

Gaudreau often led some of the best lines in hockey. Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Lindholm was the best first line for many stretches.

It was a bad combo of bad luck, untimely poor performances, and coaching that was all over the place. Marstrom not falling apart in 2022. Tkachuk not getting injured in 2020. If Covid/Sutter doesn't happen then Gaudreau and Tkachuk are likely still Flames. Maybe the Flames have a coach that eventually tries Tkachuk/Bennett together and eventually moves up Zary and the other prospects.

If this was the lineup right now, the Flames would be a success:

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Zary
Tkachuk-Bennett-Mangiapane
Backlund-Coleman-Toffoli

That's a winning lineup. The lack of success had nothing to do with pulling the rebuild short, lack of personal, or missing a #1 centre.

You be paying a lot of money - dunno if you can keep all those guys.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You be paying a lot of money - dunno if you can keep all those guys.

Going into next year sure. Maybe you do the Sharangovich trade, in any event. Maybe Pelletier, with proper development, is ready.

Anyways, my point is that it wasn't the drafting or decision to pull the rebuild early, that led to the last rebuild failing. It was a lot of other events not related to drafting.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blankall

Going into next year sure. Maybe you do the Sharangovich trade, in any event. Maybe Pelletier, with proper development, is ready.

Anyways, my point is that it wasn't the drafting or decision to pull the rebuild early, that led to the last rebuild failing. It was a lot of other events not related to drafting.

Maybe, though I sure don't think that's a cup winning lineup. It's a win a round maybe lineup.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Maybe, though I sure don't think that's a cup winning lineup. It's a win a round maybe lineup.

The Bennett/Tkachuk combo let loose alone showed that they can push a team to the finals.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Bennett/Tkachuk combo let loose alone showed that they can push a team to the finals.

I think that was a one-off. And it was more about Bobrovsky. Plus, they barely made it in. So I think they had a lot of horseshoes (TB exiting helped and it’s always nice to play the Leafs in round 2.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

The other thing about drafting is teams that are labeled good at drafting change over the years too. It's very hard to always be great at drafting. Boston had an amazing run for years back in 03 to around 07, they haven't been great since. Tampa had a great stretch, that seems to have dried up. The Stars seem to be the best now but there is no guarantee that they will keep it going.

Odds always favor the top 5 picks and 1st overall is by far better than even 2nd overall. Sure, you might get Bennett, but you are more likely to get a Barkov top 5 than a Kucherov in the 2nd round. You need a few hits in the mid rounds and the best teams always find good players, but it's hard to find Mackinnon, McDavid, Matthews types past the 1st few picks.

For once, I wish the Flames would get lucky in the lottery. 1 1st overall pick can change everything.

Good drafting is a ton of luck. Like you said there are teams that have some amazing drafting during a certain window of time but then it dries up. I never expected Yzerman to have the same success in Detroit as in Tampa. The Wings were unreal at drafting for a stretch as well and Holland looked like a genius during that time.

Even the draft class is luck. Do you get Ovechkin and Malkin or Yakupov and Murray.

I think all you can do is give yourself the best odds and hope for some luck. Get high picks and multiple picks and you give yourself the best probability to get lucky.