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Old 05-08-2017, 06:04 PM   #241
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This isn't really related to gross margins, which is an accounting issue, but my guess is that the dealerships are afraid that allowing it enables the other auto manufacturers an opportunity to cherry-pick the best locations and markets for themselves.
I'd love to hear more on this accounting issue you've discovered. What would their margins need to be to turn a profit? Sounds like you have the math pretty figured out.
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:10 PM   #242
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This isn't really related to gross margins, which is an accounting issue, but my guess is that the dealerships are afraid that allowing it enables the other auto manufacturers an opportunity to cherry-pick the best locations and markets for themselves.
http://www.economist.com/news/busine...h-car-salesman
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:19 PM   #243
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I'd love to hear more on this accounting issue you've discovered. What would their margins need to be to turn a profit? Sounds like you have the math pretty figured out.
It's not something that I discovered, it's usually brought up whenever Tesla's gross margins are talked about without acknowledging its SG&A. For comparison using financial information from Google Finance , Toyota has a gross margin from 2016 of 20.4% but a SG&A of only 10.4%; Honda's gross margin is 22.4% and SG&A of 11.4%. For American companies, GM's is 12.8% and 7.0%, while Ford is 15.6% and 8.0%.

A good ratio between gross margin and SG&A is 2:1, with well-run Japanese auto manufacturers capable of 20%+ gross margins even when their product line is mass market. While some Tesla SG&A may be in preparation for the Model 3, the complaints about service backlogs and crowded charging stations during peak periods may indicate its SG&A spending is still inadequate.

Last edited by accord1999; 05-08-2017 at 06:27 PM.
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:28 PM   #244
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Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

I read one of these ridiculous articles every now and then since the early 90s. It's not going to happen. Alberta will continue to thrive.
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Old 05-08-2017, 07:20 PM   #245
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Denver's Lessons for Calgary:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=157422
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Old 05-08-2017, 07:34 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by ToewsFan View Post
Not.
Going.
To.
Happen.

I read one of these ridiculous articles every now and then since the early 90s. It's not going to happen. Alberta will continue to thrive.
It's already happening. This isn't a futuristic prediction. It's just a matter of how quickly the snowball will roll. The facts are the facts tho - we're at the bottom of the hill, and this is coming whether we like or believe in it or not.
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Old 05-08-2017, 07:39 PM   #247
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I don't think automated cars will ever be as efficient as mass transportation like trains, buses, etc to get a bunch of people from point A to point B.

We'd have to imagine that all mass transit options will also get smarter and more efficient as time goes on similar to how cars will.
I'd disagree because a car that parks itself doesn't suffer from the last mile problem like transit does. What incentive do I have to transfer from the self driving car I am sitting in to a train?

Also if you can cut following distances and eliminate reaction time and narrow lanes you at least double the road capacity with existing infrastructure. Maybe you have cost savings for the poor but your average downtown train goer takes the train because they either hate driving or don't want to pay for parking. Eliminate those things and train use drops. Unless you solve the last mile problem transit is doomed.
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Old 05-08-2017, 07:41 PM   #248
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It's already happening. This isn't a futuristic prediction. It's just a matter of how quickly the snowball will roll. The facts are the facts tho - we're at the bottom of the hill, and this is coming whether we like or believe in it or not.
are you arguing we have hit peak worldwide oil consumption? Because that is the only metric which affects Alberta. As that starts to decline the oil market changes drastically. I'm willing to bet worldwide oil demand continues to grow to past 2030.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:00 PM   #249
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I'd disagree because a car that parks itself doesn't suffer from the last mile problem like transit does. What incentive do I have to transfer from the self driving car I am sitting in to a train?

Also if you can cut following distances and eliminate reaction time and narrow lanes you at least double the road capacity with existing infrastructure. Maybe you have cost savings for the poor but your average downtown train goer takes the train because they either hate driving or don't want to pay for parking. Eliminate those things and train use drops. Unless you solve the last mile problem transit is doomed.
Well maybe you just end up with smaller scale mass transit.

Already in San Fransisco stuff like Uber Pool and Lyft Line are gaining a lot of popularity. If you are two people or less you hail a car that you may or may not end up sharing with other riders, and you save money either way.

Maybe you have a bunch of smaller automated vehicles delivering people door to door. If the average vehicle has even 4 passengers in it, that takes a pile of vehicles off the road.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:12 PM   #250
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I'ts hard to give much credence to predictions about technology that fail to take into account humanity's unrelenting appetite for status. Just look at social media.

Automated electric vehicles? Sure. Private vehicles entirely supplanted by fleets of generic shared vehicles? Wonderful idea - wrong species.
It's not Binary. Nobody thinks it'll be soviet style genericity.

The services could well be varied with fancy options, convenient options, value options, public ones, etc
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:13 PM   #251
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The comparison to Blockbuster is a false equivalent (though Reddit et al would fawn over that example). One is an entertainment medium that has predictably replaced itself every decade or 2, the other has fueled the greatest human advancement in the history of man. Oil is the lifeblood of humanity today, it's naive to think it will be displaced in 10-20 years.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:20 PM   #252
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Well maybe you just end up with smaller scale mass transit.

Already in San Fransisco stuff like Uber Pool and Lyft Line are gaining a lot of popularity. If you are two people or less you hail a car that you may or may not end up sharing with other riders, and you save money either way.

Maybe you have a bunch of smaller automated vehicles delivering people door to door. If the average vehicle has even 4 passengers in it, that takes a pile of vehicles off the road.
I guess I mean the end of government subsidized mass transit with large infrastructure commitments and fixed routes. I do agree there would be a market for what you are suggesting above.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:24 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by accord1999 View Post
It's not something that I discovered, it's usually brought up whenever Tesla's gross margins are talked about without acknowledging its SG&A. For comparison using financial information from Google Finance , Toyota has a gross margin from 2016 of 20.4% but a SG&A of only 10.4%; Honda's gross margin is 22.4% and SG&A of 11.4%. For American companies, GM's is 12.8% and 7.0%, while Ford is 15.6% and 8.0%.

A good ratio between gross margin and SG&A is 2:1, with well-run Japanese auto manufacturers capable of 20%+ gross margins even when their product line is mass market. While some Tesla SG&A may be in preparation for the Model 3, the complaints about service backlogs and crowded charging stations during peak periods may indicate its SG&A spending is still inadequate.
Given the ramp up of the model 3, you'd expect a net loss at this point. Not sure how your explanation raises flags about the entire business model in the long term. Their cash flow will be just fine once Tesla Energy products launch.

There are plenty of talking heads out there stating that Tesla is doomed to fail, unprofitable, etc. Reality is that their investors and customers don't care, because they want them to succeed and disrupt the industry.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:26 PM   #254
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It's not about oil being displaced in all places for all purposes...its about the transportation sector being transformed by a combination of technological advances that enable new business models.

Aside from range, there is very little that an IC car can do better than an electric one. EV's are faster, simpler, cheaper to operate...especially when they become the dominant design.

The internal combustion engine has been around for over a century...its not going away completely, but in many situations, electric engines make so much more sense.

If the author quoted in the OP is wrong...no problem Alberta is fine with its current approach. If he is right, or even partially right, Alberta needs to pivot.
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Old 05-08-2017, 08:28 PM   #255
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Hey, can you explain how the bylaws work in Calgary for EV Bikes?

From what I read before, powered vehicles are technically not allowed on pathways in the city? And at a certain power/speed, full face helmets are required? The laws might be a bit draconian but I can see where this makes sense as some of these bikes can get very fast.
I live in Victoria But I am familar with all the bike laws minus some of the Asia countries.

As per the Alberta provincial government an legal electric bike must not be more thn 500w CONTINOUS rwating which different than peak power peak . The motor shouldn't propel you more than 32km/hr. For some messed up reason Alberta is one of the only places in NA/Europe that require a D.O.T helmet but as long as the ebike looks like a traditional style of bike they won't big you. Ebikes must be able to pedal like a normal bicycle .
You must be over the age of 16.

Pedalecs ( has a pedal cadence or torque sensor) are legal on Calgary pathways but not throttle only.

You could have both installed and still should be ok.

No gas bikes allowed but thats not surprising since federally gas bikes have been illegal for on road use for almost a decade.


If they meet all the requirements they are consider as a bicycle. If they do not thwy are not aloud for use and can not be insured as they fall into no specific class and less you dot everything and have a mechanic sign off on it to make it a moped/scooter.

I do have bikes that are technically illegal but make sure when im onroad in populated areas i adhere to the requirments as they are the same in B.C. minus the atupid d.o.t helmet laws.

In time most N.A will soon be like California ebike laws . All bike laws in N.A are based around the original laws that California used originally .

Modern Cali laws that were inacted last year.



Refernces

http://www.calgary.ca/CSPS/Parks/Pag...ric-Bikes.aspx

Transportation Alberta has provincial laws.
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:06 PM   #256
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BYD (EV manufacturer) signs agreement with NAIT and SAIT for training on maintenance of heavy duty EV's
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:22 PM   #257
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The comparison to Blockbuster is a false equivalent (though Reddit et al would fawn over that example). One is an entertainment medium that has predictably replaced itself every decade or 2, the other has fueled the greatest human advancement in the history of man. Oil is the lifeblood of humanity today, it's naive to think it will be displaced in 10-20 years.
Absolutely no one is suggesting oil will be completed displaced in 20 years. But how much displacement will cause large disruption?
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:40 PM   #258
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Can't wait until this is bumped in 2030 and everyone is still driving their big gas and diesel vehicles and we all laugh at how silly the article was
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:49 PM   #259
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I'm not that surprised you don't get the point. Market cap is a very good indicator of investor confidence, and how well they think the company is going to perform in the foreseeable future. The fact the Tesla does have such a high market cap is a good indicator of where people see not just the fortunes of Tesla going, but the fortunes of the whole auto industry. The days of the combustion engine being under the hood of most cars is coming to an end. Alberta needs to find a new market for its fossil fuels.
Market cap is a good indicator of investor confidence because it is literally determined by investor confidence. However, that is not a good indicator of future profitability or where the industry is going. This is why stock prices are highly volatile and bubbles form - because current investor confidence can be subject to extreme sentiment and overconfidence. See: Nortel, the highest market cap ever achieved by a Canadian company (and an unlimited number of other examples)

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Given the ramp up of the model 3, you'd expect a net loss at this point. Not sure how your explanation raises flags about the entire business model in the long term. Their cash flow will be just fine once Tesla Energy products launch.

There are plenty of talking heads out there stating that Tesla is doomed to fail, unprofitable, etc. Reality is that their investors and customers don't care, because they want them to succeed and disrupt the industry.
This actually sums it up far better. Tesla's market cap reflects the attitudes of Tesla investors (supporters). It does not reflect economics.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:00 PM   #260
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Agreed. TaaS will make high end sports cars available for regular people to try, don't have to buy at all.

Just because driverless EV's are around the corner doesn't mean people can't satisfy their car tastes. Hell, you already see it the concept in action with Uber and their various offerings for the type of car you want a ride in.
You can rent any sports car or exotic car now. That doesn't change the demand.

The entire idea of status is desiring that which is not readily available to everyone.

ALL of the projected attractions of auto sharing that have been discussed in this thread already exist. But demand remains relatively modest. The massive, immediate, society-wide adoption that is being suggested here, simply because EV, is a pipe dream (at least within a generation or two).

Will demand for EVs continue to grow? Of course. Are the entire structure of society, the infrastructure of cities, and the primary modes of transportation turning upside down in a matter of a few years? We shall see.
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