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Old 02-21-2021, 05:03 PM   #2441
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Highschool hockey playoffs going on in Minot, ND right now...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1363261862788403204

And all it too was close to .2% of the population dying.
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Last edited by Julio; 02-21-2021 at 09:36 PM. Reason: Math is hard.
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Old 02-21-2021, 08:54 PM   #2442
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.2% isn’t it?
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Old 02-21-2021, 09:36 PM   #2443
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.2% isnt it?
Yup...my bad.
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Old 02-21-2021, 10:34 PM   #2444
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If they're that open its amazing their trend is still pretty flat. On a per pop basis they are slightly more new cases per day than AB right now, but not much. They might be coming close to herd immunity - they have 25 vaccine doses given per 100 population, plus a lot bigger percentage of people who would have immunity from an infection. If their R value is 1 or less fully open then their pandemic is basically over.
With 25 doses thats probably 20% with one dose plus you have a .2% death rate which is somewhere between an 80% and 40% infection rate. They are likely over 50% immune. They may have successfully Swedened themselves.
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Old 02-22-2021, 01:01 AM   #2445
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With 25 doses thats probably 20% with one dose plus you have a .2% death rate which is somewhere between an 80% and 40% infection rate. They are likely over 50% immune. They may have successfully Swedened themselves.
I find that pretty encouraging to be honest. If they can be flat at a low level with large group gatherings, we should be able to do that as well once we get to similar levels of vaccine coverage.
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Old 02-22-2021, 01:52 AM   #2446
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I find that pretty encouraging to be honest. If they can be flat at a low level with large group gatherings, we should be able to do that as well once we get to similar levels of vaccine coverage.
Keeping in mind our death and case rate is far lower, so wed need much higher than 20% vaccine coverage to reach the same level.

Using really basic math, assuming reported cases is a lot lower than actual cases (which is what we have to assume to get ND numbers), were looking at a combination of additional reported cases and vaccines delivered of about 1,500,000 in Alberta.

Still, things look good for large gatherings in the summer.
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Old 02-22-2021, 07:30 AM   #2447
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And all it too was close to .2% of the population dying.
Are you saying that as in you dont think its a big problem?
Cause I a typical year ~1.25% of the population dies (based on a life expectancy of 80 years)
So yeah, when was the last time something showed up out of the blue and was immediately responsible for 16% of all deaths, despite some pretty significant steps used to prevent it!

Killing 0.2% of the population is a pretty good argument as to how serious Covid is.
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Old 02-22-2021, 07:46 AM   #2448
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Are you saying that as in you don’t think it’s a big problem?
Cause I a typical year ~1.25% of the population dies (based on a life expectancy of 80 years)
So yeah, when was the last time something showed up out of the blue and was immediately responsible for 16% of all deaths, despite some pretty significant steps used to prevent it!

Killing 0.2% of the population is a pretty good argument as to how serious Covid is.
Typical year is actually even less than that. I was looking into this to debate someone on the same point (that 1% would be a huge problem).

In 2015 (most recent data I could find) about 55 million people died globally. Or 0.74%.
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Old 02-22-2021, 08:49 AM   #2449
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Typical year is actually even less than that. I was looking into this to debate someone on the same point (that 1% would be a huge problem).

In 2015 (most recent data I could find) about 55 million people died globally. Or 0.74%.
Yeah I just did some pretty rough math, 80 year life expectancy evenly distributed would mean about 1.25% of people die every year. For the sake of this argument, its erring on the conservative of estimating Covid deaths as a percentage of total, so close enough for making the point I was trying to make.
So yeah, with real numbers, even worse.
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Old 02-22-2021, 08:52 AM   #2450
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Julio was being sarcastic.


I think.
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Old 02-22-2021, 09:36 AM   #2451
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Julio was being sarcastic.


I think.
I was.
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Old 02-22-2021, 10:17 AM   #2452
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1363504932633124864
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Old 02-22-2021, 11:59 AM   #2453
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Keeping in mind our death and case rate is far lower, so wed need much higher than 20% vaccine coverage to reach the same level.

Using really basic math, assuming reported cases is a lot lower than actual cases (which is what we have to assume to get ND numbers), were looking at a combination of additional reported cases and vaccines delivered of about 1,500,000 in Alberta.

Still, things look good for large gatherings in the summer.
Yeah, sorry I meant our vaccine coverage equaling their vaccine coverage + recovered numbers. I agree 1.5 MM more in AB is probably a good estimate, especially if they stretch the timeline for second doses to get more first doses in earlier.
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Old 02-24-2021, 11:07 AM   #2454
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Don't call 911 to book your vaccine appointment
https://twitter.com/user/status/136461279201208729

https://twitter.com/CalgaryPolice/st...012087298?s=20
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Old 02-24-2021, 11:11 AM   #2455
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It's terrible that they're using 811. So instead of the that service being available for people who have actual health issues (which is its purpose and keeps people who need minor advice out of the ER) it's completely bogged down booking appointments.

Why couldn't we have a different 1800 number for the bookings? You don't need to speak to a nurse to book an appointment.
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Old 02-24-2021, 11:16 AM   #2456
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It's terrible that they're using 811. So instead of the that service being available for people who have actual health issues (which is its purpose and keeps people who need minor advice out of the ER) it's completely bogged down booking appointments.

Why couldn't we have a different 1800 number for the bookings? You don't need to speak to a nurse to book an appointment.
I would think they split off those callers at the main menu to dedicated booking staff so as to maintain resourcing for regular business.
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Old 02-24-2021, 11:57 AM   #2457
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I would think they split off those callers at the main menu to dedicated booking staff so as to maintain resourcing for regular business.
Maybe. But 811 has been ringing busy this morning, so I'm not sure that's a relevant consideration.

At least they've changed the error message on the website saying not to call 811.
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Old 02-25-2021, 03:37 PM   #2458
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1365031816277622785
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Old 02-25-2021, 03:57 PM   #2459
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Haha, wow.
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Old 02-26-2021, 01:21 PM   #2460
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this one is pretty funny.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...hift-mask.html

This is the moment a female shopper whipped off her underwear to use as a make-shift face mask after being warned by staff she would not be served without one.
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