2. Your whole outlook on this is pretty anthropocentric. For all you know, there are species that live for what we would think of as essentially forever, and for whom a 42 year trip (or a 400 year trip) would be like a heading to the corner store.
I think assuming that intelligent alien civilizations would want to explore the universe or Earth for that matter, is pretty anthropocentric. Our whole evolutionary path led us to being a species that "looks up" and had to use the stars to navigate and grow food. Our ancestors came out of the trees, probably because of environmental conditions occurring at just the right critical point in our development. The surrounding bare landscape necessitated the use of the stars to find our way around and predict seasons, sparking our space curiosity that would evolve with us for the next couple million years. There is no reason to think that other intelligent life forms would have followed the same path or their environmental factors would have guided them in the same way.
The chances are astronomically unlikely. Just look at all the things that had to go right for us:
* A terrestrial planet in the "goldilocks zone".
* The exact right proportions of essential elements.
* Large planets sheltering us from cosmic cataclysms.
* A moon that effects tides and gravity.
* A planet tilted just right to create seasons, biodiversity and environmental adversity (which pushes evolution).
* Avoid extinction events just long enough.
Now consider the time frames. Even if intelligent life evolved and wanted to explore us, and survived long enough to develop the technology, they could have risen and fallen long before we were here.
I feel the chances of two intelligent civilizations coming into contact is probably so incredibly remote, it's not even worth thinking about. There is a good chance that our light hasn't even reached them yet, and by the time it does, we will be gone. Plus, they would need to be looking in just the right direction. The chances of this happening are probably less than if two people on opposite sides of the planet starting walking blindfolded in random directions and eventually bumping into each other at an upholstery art gallery in Peru.
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Yeah I get it, but who's to say there isn't a situation out there that's better than ours? Or if a couple of things were to change that there would still be intelligent life on Earth that just looks different than what we know?
As the years go by I'm actually becoming more and more warm on the idea that there is way more to the space around us than we currently think. A lot of scientists and astronomers are starting to give validation to the possibility of a created simulation, extra dimensions that could exist, etc.
Ideas that if true could completely change the idea that you need to travel as far as possible into space with not much chance of success in order to discover something, which is what we currently staunchly believe is the case.
We know so, so little and tend to speak in absolutes about what we "know" so far about space exploration and the universe.
"I know that I know nothing"
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That's the thing about the universe, we can't rule anything out. We know so little
We also know enough that human beings are a product of this planet, this gravity and this breathable air, long term in space is not a place for us but in the future I can see us sending probes/drones to other exoplanets in hope we can teach future humans about possible life out there.
The chances are astronomically unlikely. Just look at all the things that had to go right for us
The thing is, this is just... wrong. The probabilities work in the opposite way than what your intuitions seem to tell you. Because of the scale of just the observable universe (to say nothing of other areas), it's almost certain that many, many other worlds would generate intelligent life. You're talking about several hundred million stars in the milky way, multiplied by two trillion galaxies. The scale of it suggests that there would be plenty of civilizations like ours, to say nothing (again) of many that are not at all like ours but still have something we would recognize as intelligence. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that an Earth-like setting is essential to the development of intelligent life. Our particular evolutionary path is not the only path to a life form that ultimately will move, expand, explore, or otherwise get to a point where it encounters other planets and solar systems.
Quote:
Now consider the time frames. Even if intelligent life evolved and wanted to explore us, and survived long enough to develop the technology, they could have risen and fallen long before we were here.
I feel the chances of two intelligent civilizations coming into contact is probably so incredibly remote, it's not even worth thinking about.
This is also wrong, or at least, partly wrong (the last part is possible). The observable universe is about 14 billion years old. However, it would only take about 50 million years to move across the galaxy over generations even at relatively slow speeds, so there's actually been plenty of time for this to occur, and occur again and again. That's what the Fermi paradox is all about: given the math, there actually should be contact between intelligent species. So... where is everyone?
There are lots of explanations for why we haven't contacted aliens, given the foregoing. Maybe it's a rule of advanced civilizations that they tend to destroy themselves at some point. Maybe travel at distances of the scale of a galaxy turns out to be more difficult than expected because there's a scarcity of resources to allow for that sort of expansion and movement. It seems most likely, though, that we just haven't waited anywhere near long enough as a society to have actually had any contact ourselves. We've had radio telescopes for less than 100 years. Reliable historical records only extend a few thousand years, and even then, have major gaps. That's a very short period of time in the grand scheme of things for us to have any evidence. Maybe we'll find out that one of these things, or something else, explains why there aren't aliens around, but it'll probably take some time to know for sure. In the meantime, though, the probabilities suggest that there is life out there, somewhere.
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I find myself on the side of the “filter lies ahead” and “Gaian Bottleneck” theories, where the likelihood of a civilization getting to the point of intergalactic travel, prior to self destruction/catastrophic global event, is very low. Not a particularly fun theory.
In all seriousness the military cant just open fire on a horde of citizens. It would be a pr nightmare. A single person getting shot some time ago can be covered up or buried in the news. Even five hundred people showing up would have to be settled somehow other then machine guns.
In this case, yes they can.
a horde of people rushing a military base with the intention of overwhelming them and getting in.
I think they can just open fire, and be justified in doing so although they likely would take other measures first.
I think they'd win the PR battle over a horde of nutjobs, alien enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists and anarchists rushing a military base.
besides, how many of them would actually take a bullet before the rest said "screw this, I'm out of here"?
there would be more deaths from the fleeing stampede than from gunfire.
realistically, out of say 500,000 clicking a button to show their interest, how many will actually show up? a few hundred perhaps? then they'd mill around, wonder what to do. maybe get interviewed and talk about the conspiracy to hide the truth,and then leave.
In this case, yes they can.
a horde of people rushing a military base with the intention of overwhelming them and getting in.
I think they can just open fire, and be justified in doing so although they likely would take other measures first.
I think they'd win the PR battle over a horde of nutjobs, alien enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists and anarchists rushing a military base.
besides, how many of them would actually take a bullet before the rest said "screw this, I'm out of here"?
there would be more deaths from the fleeing stampede than from gunfire.
realistically, out of say 500,000 clicking a button to show their interest, how many will actually show up? a few hundred perhaps? then they'd mill around, wonder what to do. maybe get interviewed and talk about the conspiracy to hide the truth,and then leave.
Area 51 while probably not a hive of alien activity, with vaults full of alien bodies featuring aliens working cheerfully side by side with their human counterparts on developing new technology for the betterment of the old USA, is still a top secret facility and probably a advanced flight research facility.
The funny thing is that the base has been expanding which leads me to believe that there are all kinds of weapons and advanced flight research still happening there.
And a pretty no nonsense warning has been posted by the US Military on line.
Quote:
"[Area 51] is an open training range for the U.S. Air Force, and we would discourage anyone from trying to come into the area where we train American armed forces," a spokeswoman told The Washington Post. "The U.S. Air Force always stands ready to protect America and its assets."
Now will they shoot people? Probably not unless these idiots cross a well defined "Line in the sand". But I'm betting that the FBI is already monitoring this as is the DIA, and the Air Force is going to have extra personal, and non lethal yet extremely uncomfortable methods of breaking this thing up.
It stops becoming a joke if some of these idiots thing that they can rush one of the most highly classified government facilities in the country.
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Area 51 agents will provide several warnings, including but not limited to megaphone warnings, face-to-face visits, and warning shots. If you continue to proceed I believe they have a right to shoot.
500,000 people does not change that protocol.
Either way, aren't aliens - if there are any - in the S4 facility? Area 51 is just an advanced aerospace research facility, with a quite an important role during the Cold War.
