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Old 02-27-2021, 05:05 PM   #10801
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What is stage 2 anyway? I thought it was retail, which I don't get, since retail is already open. Do they just mean increased capacity at stores?
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Old 02-27-2021, 05:13 PM   #10802
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I really donít think it is though. We were supposed to be under 450 people in hospital for stage two and weíre below 300 for stage three. To me, itís increasingly difficult to justify keeping businesses closed and on life support.

I think the way forward is allow businesses to open more fully and keep restrictions in place regarding at home social gatherings.
Variants continue to rise. That has to factor in too
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Old 02-27-2021, 05:15 PM   #10803
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What is stage 2 anyway? I thought it was retail, which I don't get, since retail is already open. Do they just mean increased capacity at stores?

From the Gov't website:

Potential easing in these areas:
  • Retail
  • Banquet halls
  • Community halls
  • Conference centres
  • Hotels
  • Further easing of indoor fitness and children's sport and performance
So, increased capacity in retail for sure. There are small stores that only allow a few people in at a time. Plus, openings on other areas. Perhaps increased amenities in hotels, such as exercise rooms or breakfast rooms opening.
The last line seems to point to more openings for gyms and arenas, and maybe even places like bowling alleys.
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Old 02-27-2021, 05:16 PM   #10804
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Variants continue to rise. That has to factor in too

True. One thing I don't think we have heard is any outcomes from varients. Have people gone into the hospital from them? Have there been any fatalities?


On the other hand, I would think that at least the first few cases would be resolved by now.
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Old 02-27-2021, 05:44 PM   #10805
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  • 415 Cases, 1,883 Deaths (+6), 4,546 Active cases (+47)
  • 262 In hospital (-7) , 51 In intensive care (-4)
  • 11396 jabs
So trend continues, cases up, hospitalizations down. Cases are up in Calgary, Edmonton and North.
I really want Step 2 on Monday, but it is harder to make the case for it than a few days ago.
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Variants continue to rise. That has to factor in too
7 day average appears to have bottomed out and is rising slightly, so that is a negative.

What was the positivity rate today and how many cases of the variant were there? Those are two important numbers too.

Variant positives seem to be ~10% of total positive cases recently which is smaller than I would have expected given what we have been told, but maybe they just don't have a foothold yet. The numbers (IIRC) for variants seem stable as a percentage of total new cases, I haven't noticed a rise yet. North zone had very few variant cases and was #2 in the province in active cases. I would think currently the majority of variant cases are in the two main cities and have not spread outside (yet)
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Old 02-27-2021, 06:03 PM   #10806
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What was the positivity rate today and how many cases of the variant were there? Those are two important numbers too.
5.3% and 30 (approximately evenly distributed across Calgary, Edmonton, and Central zone), respectively.
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Old 02-27-2021, 06:31 PM   #10807
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I really donít think it is though. We were supposed to be under 450 people in hospital for stage two and weíre below 300 for stage three. To me, itís increasingly difficult to justify keeping businesses closed and on life support.

I think the way forward is allow businesses to open more fully and keep restrictions in place regarding at home social gatherings.
Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. I'm worried that this is a decision to open up more as leading indicators get worse. To me, that's choosing to have a third very restrictive lockdown. I would prefer we support businesses as necessary to keep their heads above water, and ensure this is the last set of restrictions and get a head start on "normal" when the time comes.
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Old 02-27-2021, 06:49 PM   #10808
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Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. I'm worried that this is a decision to open up more as leading indicators get worse. To me, that's choosing to have a third very restrictive lockdown. I would prefer we support businesses as necessary to keep their heads above water, and ensure this is the last set of restrictions and get a head start on "normal" when the time comes.
This was always the risk of setting lockdown guidelines around lagging indicators.
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Old 02-27-2021, 07:03 PM   #10809
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Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. I'm worried that this is a decision to open up more as leading indicators get worse. To me, that's choosing to have a third very restrictive lockdown. I would prefer we support businesses as necessary to keep their heads above water, and ensure this is the last set of restrictions and get a head start on "normal" when the time comes.
Yeah and thatís fair. But weíre literally 6 weeks ahead of those lagging indicators now, which should give some solace to that potential easing. I also think that when you set targets, and people are clearly following those precautions, you have to reward that.

I see this ďMarch for freedomĒ on the news and let me just say that while Iím in favour of relaxing some measures, Iím not one of those people by any stretch!
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Old 02-27-2021, 07:16 PM   #10810
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YI see this “March for freedom” on the news and let me just say that while I’m in favour of relaxing some measures, I’m not one of those people by any stretch!
March for Freedom. lol. Like these people would ####ing know about anything about being repressed.
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Old 02-27-2021, 07:24 PM   #10811
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This is current phase of opening is failing to keep cases down.

So I think you either need to open back up everything except in home visits and let the cases rise like before or increase restrictions on activities to hold case growth at 0 or negative.

A slow gradual rise while people are still locked down is the worst outcome because in 10 weeks you have to do a hard lockdown again and people wonít have had any relief. So I think a hammer and dance approach is correct right now. Open until mid April then a hard lock down for 4-6 weeks then back to summer freedom.

I had hoped that the 1st phase of relaxations would have been subtle enough to keep rt down but people have stopped following the rules from my anecdotal opinion.
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Old 02-27-2021, 07:40 PM   #10812
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This is current phase of opening is failing to keep cases down.

So I think you either need to open back up everything except in home visits and let the cases rise like before or increase restrictions on activities to hold case growth at 0 or negative.

A slow gradual rise while people are still locked down is the worst outcome because in 10 weeks you have to do a hard lockdown again and people wonít have had any relief. So I think a hammer and dance approach is correct right now. Open until mid April then a hard lock down for 4-6 weeks then back to summer freedom.

I had hoped that the 1st phase of relaxations would have been subtle enough to keep rt down but people have stopped following the rules from my anecdotal opinion.
Well Iíd agree, if all things were equal. Theyíre not. The vaccines are being dispensed and the pressures are dropping on the healthcare system.

But yeah, youíre seeing Covid fatigue, and to me thatís exacerbated by restrictions that people increasingly view as unnecessary.
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Old 02-27-2021, 07:54 PM   #10813
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I think there is a few factors at play with this, but the two I keep coming back to are:


-Why do we have restrictions? For most of the past year, the main reason given has been to stop our health care system from being overwealmed. A secondary and complementary reason is so 'grandma' doesn't get sick, because she and people of her generation are most at risk for serious outcomes from the virus.


The strain on the health care system has lessened considerably in the last few months. This is not to say that there should be no vigilance, but as more vaccines are rolled out to the elders in our communities, rising case numbers (if they do happen) will not translate into the rise on hospitalizations we had in December and January.



-When does government/society feel that the most vulnerable are protected by vaccines? This kind of links into the first point.

Will we as a society be comfortable opening up when 10% of people in an age range not yet vaccinated testing positive need hospitalization and 2% die? (People in their 60s) Or how about when 5% testing positive go to hospital, but .3% die? (People in their 50%).

Covid zero isn't going to happen, so at what point do we as a society decide that they negatives of restrictions outweigh the human cost of Covid?
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Old 02-27-2021, 10:28 PM   #10814
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Well Iíd agree, if all things were equal. Theyíre not. The vaccines are being dispensed and the pressures are dropping on the healthcare system.

But yeah, youíre seeing Covid fatigue, and to me thatís exacerbated by restrictions that people increasingly view as unnecessary.
Deaths will drop because of the elimination of LTC deaths but pressure on the health system only increases the safe number of cases and since growth is exponential it only buys you 2-3 weeks every time you half hospitalization rate.

I agree with you that right now less restrictions are required due to Covid fatigue. Hospitalizations need to become scary again before people will tolerate another lockdown.
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Old 02-27-2021, 10:33 PM   #10815
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So for the WFH crowd, how do the tax deductions work if you and your spouse are working from home? Can only one of you claim certain expenses that are common to the home office environment, eg) heat, internet, electricity, etc?

If you feel like doing the non-simplified version of the taxes, is the ceiling of tax deductions lifted, or is it still $400 max?
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Old 02-27-2021, 11:16 PM   #10816
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GoodLife thinks that they will be able to open on Monday:


https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...covid-19-cases
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Old 02-28-2021, 08:58 AM   #10817
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I think this will be the first time we appear to have enough contact tracers to really track where growth is as we roll into the third wave. It will be interesting to see where most cases actually come from.The fall had something like 80% unknown, so the data isn't all that useful.
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Old 02-28-2021, 09:57 AM   #10818
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So for the WFH crowd, how do the tax deductions work if you and your spouse are working from home? Can only one of you claim certain expenses that are common to the home office environment, eg) heat, internet, electricity, etc?

If you feel like doing the non-simplified version of the taxes, is the ceiling of tax deductions lifted, or is it still $400 max?
You can do the non simplified method with the signed tax form from your employer. Or claim up to 200 days for days you worked from home at $2 a day. Both can claim it from what I can tell.
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Old 02-28-2021, 11:27 AM   #10819
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I was just looking at the graphs for new cases in Alberta, Canada and the USA and all the graphs essentially track each other in terms of trends. In fact, since the peak of new cases in December the US has had the most rapid decline in new cases. This seems rather striking as there is a pretty stark contrast in restrictions between Alberta/Canada and the US and even something as basic as masking is not as accepted in the US vs Canada. Restrictions keep the numbers in check but overall the general trend in cases appears to be the same regardless of restrictions. Here in Alberta we are seeing the beginning of an uptick in new cases but so is the USA and this doesn't appear to be a result of easing restrictions as the US hasn't really seen any changes in restrictions.
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Old 02-28-2021, 12:16 PM   #10820
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I was just looking at the graphs for new cases in Alberta, Canada and the USA and all the graphs essentially track each other in terms of trends. In fact, since the peak of new cases in December the US has had the most rapid decline in new cases. This seems rather striking as there is a pretty stark contrast in restrictions between Alberta/Canada and the US and even something as basic as masking is not as accepted in the US vs Canada. Restrictions keep the numbers in check but overall the general trend in cases appears to be the same regardless of restrictions. Here in Alberta we are seeing the beginning of an uptick in new cases but so is the USA and this doesn't appear to be a result of easing restrictions as the US hasn't really seen any changes in restrictions.
By the end of March/middle of April, hospital capacity will not likely be an issue driving mitigation. While we'll still need to protect the unvaccinated population, and morbidity is still a concern, mitigation efforts need to reflect the realities of a lower healthcare system strain.

I too share concerns of the variants increasing risks to children and younger people in general, but mandated social constraints can and should reflect the new realities of a much lower mortality risk.


Edit: looking at my post it doesn't really follow what Calgarygeologist posted, but you have to understand that I was having a conversation in my head and it made sense

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