05-29-2020, 11:16 AM
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#1
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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A Net With No Sure Bets Part 1 - League Tendencies
Part 1 in a three part series looking at the draft for goaltenders.
Part 1 - League Tendencies is linked below.
Next week I'll have a look at how each team has fared, and finally a look into Flames goaltending at the draft.
A Net With No Sure Bets Part 1 - League Tendencies
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05-29-2020, 12:00 PM
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#2
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Franchise Player
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Considering the importance of the position, a 38% hit rate for the first round would suggest drafting a goalie in that round isn't really all that stupid.
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05-29-2020, 12:52 PM
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#3
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Considering the importance of the position, a 38% hit rate for the first round would suggest drafting a goalie in that round isn't really all that stupid.
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While that is true, the value of drafting a goalie in the first round must also be weighed against the value of those picks for selecting at other positions. Choosing to draft a goalie in Round One also means choosing to forego selecting a forward or a defensemen who could reasonably be a fixture in the lineup within two years.
I tend to think what we are seeing now is the reservation by clubs of their first round capital only for those goalies who appear as close to "sure-things" as possible. Since 2012 only four goalies have been drafted in the first round: Andrei Vasilevsky in 2012, Ilya Samsonov in 2015, Jake Oettinger in 2017 and Spencer Knight in 2019. While a 38% hit-rate looks okay, this will also become balanced against the total ratio of goalies picked relative to other players: four goalies in 243 selections (1.6%) will help to ensure that the hit-rate remains high.
The moral of the story is that a team should only draft a goalie in Round One if they are certain that he will be an impact player. The stakes are much, much lower for drafting forwards and defensemen.
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05-29-2020, 01:14 PM
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#4
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
While that is true, the value of drafting a goalie in the first round must also be weighed against the value of those picks for selecting at other positions. Choosing to draft a goalie in Round One also means choosing to forego selecting a forward or a defensemen who could reasonably be a fixture in the lineup within two years.
I tend to think what we are seeing now is the reservation by clubs of their first round capital only for those goalies who appear as close to "sure-things" as possible. Since 2012 only four goalies have been drafted in the first round: Andrei Vasilevsky in 2012, Ilya Samsonov in 2015, Jake Oettinger in 2017 and Spencer Knight in 2019. While a 38% hit-rate looks okay, this will also become balanced against the total ratio of goalies picked relative to other players: four goalies in 243 selections (1.6%) will help to ensure that the hit-rate remains high.
The moral of the story is that a team should only draft a goalie in Round One if they are certain that he will be an impact player. The stakes are much, much lower for drafting forwards and defensemen.
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Yeah you almost need to use a first round pick if you really want to draft a goalie, but the hit rate is concerning.
If you think you're getting a top pairing defenseman but he turns out to be a third pairing powerplay specialist you still have value.
But with a goalie if you don't get a starter you don't have much value. There are too many goaltenders floating around that can back up to waste a pick on a guy that may not be your starter.
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05-29-2020, 01:22 PM
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#5
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
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05-29-2020, 01:46 PM
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#6
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Resident Videologist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
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Since the last full lockout:
2019: STL (Binnington) - drafted in 3rd round
2018: WSH (Holtby) - drafted in 4th round
2017: PIT (Fleury) - drafted 1st overall
2016: PIT (Murray) - drafted in 3rd round
2015: CHI (Crawford) - drafted in 2nd round
2014: LA (Quick) - drafted in 3rd round
2013: CHI (Crawford) - drafted in 2nd round
2012: LA (Quick) - drafted in 3rd round
2011: BOS (Thomas) - free agent
2010: CHI (Niemi) - free agent
2009: PIT (Fleury) - drafted 1st overall
2008: DET (Osgood) - drafted in 3rd round (but reacquired)
2007: ANA (Giguere) - trade
2006 CAR (Ward) - drafted in 1st round
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05-29-2020, 02:17 PM
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#7
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Here is the first round data set sorted by the adjusted games played factor and draft points
Code:
Year Round Num. Drafted By Player GP GPP/DY Category Draft Pts
2003 1 1 PIT MA Fleury 847 56.5 Elite 10
2002 1 25 CAR Cam Ward 701 46.7 Elite 10
2005 1 5 MTL Carey Price 682 45.5 Elite 10
2002 1 2 WPG Kari Lehtonen 649 43.3 Elite 10
2005 1 21 TOR Tuukka Rask 536 35.7 Elite 10
2006 1 23 WAS S.Varlamov 493 35.2 Elite 10
2004 1 14 EDM Devan Dubnyk 520 34.7 Elite 10
2012 1 19 TBY A. Vasilevskiy 259 32.4 Elite 10
2004 1 26 VAN Cory Schneider 409 27.3 Starter 7
2006 1 11 LAK J. Bernier 370 26.4 Starter 7
2000 1 1 NYI Rick DiPietro 318 21.2 Starter 7
2001 1 8 CBS Pascal Leclaire 173 11.5 Played 4
2004 1 6 NYR Al Montoya 168 11.2 Played 4
2012 1 24 BOS Malcolm Subban 66 8.3 Cup of Joe 2
2010 1 11 DAL Jack Campbell 64 6.4 Cup of Joe 2
2015 1 22 WAS Ilya Samsonov 26 5.2 Cup of Joe 2
2001 1 10 NYR Dan Blackburn 63 4.2 Cup of Joe 2
2002 1 29 BOS Hannu Toivonen 61 4.1 Cup of Joe 2
2001 1 26 DAL J. Bacashihua 38 2.5 Cup of Joe 2
2001 1 29 CHI Adam Munro 17 1.1 Cup of Joe 2
2006 1 26 CGY Leland Irving 13 0.9 Bust 0
2004 1 17 STL Marek Schwarz 6 0.4 Bust 0
2008 1 30 DET Tom McCollum 3 0.3 Bust 0
2010 1 27 ARI Mark Visentin 1 0.1 Bust 0
2006 1 15 TBY Riku Helenius 1 0.1 Bust 0
2000 1 9 CGY Brent Krahn 1 0.1 Bust 0
2008 1 18 NAS Chet Pickard 0.0 Bust 0
2019 1 13 FLA Spencer Knight 0.0 Developing 0
2017 1 26 DAL Jake Oettinger 0.0 Developing 0
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05-29-2020, 03:39 PM
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#8
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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It would be interesting to see similar numbers for undrafted goalies too because they aren't an insignificant percentage of the total number of goalies.
This season, 87 goalies have played at least one game in the NHL, and undrafted goalies are the third largest group: - 15 undrafted
- 11 first round
- 16 second round
- 17 third round
- 7 fourth round
- 8 fifth round
- 5 sixth round
- 5 seventh round
- 1 eighth round
- 2 ninth round
If you included the 8th and 9th rounds, which no longer exist, the "not drafted in the first 7 rounds" group is bigger than any single round.
In fact, 2 teams (Calgary and San Jose) did not play a drafted goalie in any game this season.
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05-29-2020, 04:48 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Van Island
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Talbot wasn’t drafted?
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05-29-2020, 07:15 PM
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#10
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMike
Talbot wasn’t drafted?
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No. The Rangers signed him as a free agent after three years at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.
Interestingly enough, last week, UAH announced that they were going to shut down their hockey program due to lack of funding. Today, they announced that thanks to a GoFundMe campaign supported by Talbot and others, they were able to raise enough funds to keep the program alive.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1266089644451672064
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05-30-2020, 12:44 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Would be interesting to know how many Cup winning goalies were drafted by the team.
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Low Hanging Fruit;
Vernon, Mike
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05-30-2020, 07:05 AM
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#12
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Brisbane
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Games played by Calgary Flames drafted goalies:
1. Vernon: 781
2. Anderson: 614 (unsigned and re-entered draft)
3. Kidd: 387
4. McElhinney: 237
5. Brossoit: 68
6. Muzzati: 62
7. Sabourin: 57
8. Trefilov: 54
9. Ortio: 37
10. Irving: 13
11. Gilles: 12
12. A handful of others: 1
So after Calgary’s first ever goalie pick panning out the next best is a late bloomer who they didn’t sign, three backups, and then we are in half season to cup of coffee territory. Sad. You’d think if they’d just spend every 10th pick on the highest ranked central scouting goalie they’d have better luck.
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Last edited by FireGilbert; 05-30-2020 at 07:20 AM.
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05-30-2020, 09:40 AM
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#13
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FireGilbert
Games played by Calgary Flames drafted goalies:
1. Vernon: 781
2. Anderson: 614 (unsigned and re-entered draft)
3. Kidd: 387
4. McElhinney: 237
5. Brossoit: 68
6. Muzzati: 62
7. Sabourin: 57
8. Trefilov: 54
9. Ortio: 37
10. Irving: 13
11. Gilles: 12
12. A handful of others: 1
So after Calgary’s first ever goalie pick panning out the next best is a late bloomer who they didn’t sign, three backups, and then we are in half season to cup of coffee territory. Sad. You’d think if they’d just spend every 10th pick on the highest ranked central scouting goalie they’d have better luck.
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I still think Kidd would have been a good goalie were it not for his season-ending injury in 1999. He was never the same after that.
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