Tank for Celebrini

[Tbull8]

I think its ridiculous to be making comments about nepotism and glory days if the flames draft Tij. He's being ranked anywhere from 9-16 and the flames are projected to pick right in that range. I agree that you dont reach on him at 6 or 7, but he's shown all season that he's going to be a player. As some have mentioned, the family tie is a bonus.

This isnt the oilers hiring Coffey as the D coach when he's never coached anywhere relevant, this is a legitimate top 10 potential prospect that Conroy would know the character of better than any other GM in the league.

For fans, Tij could be a big reason for casual fans to sit through a rebuild

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I think its ridiculous to be making comments about nepotism and glory days if the flames draft Tij. He's being ranked anywhere from 9-16 and the flames are projected to pick right in that range. I agree that you dont reach on him at 6 or 7, but he's shown all season that he's going to be a player. As some have mentioned, the family tie is a bonus.

This isnt the oilers hiring Coffey as the D coach when he's never coached anywhere relevant, this is a legitimate top 10 potential prospect that Conroy would know the character of better than any other GM in the league.

For fans, Tij could be a big reason for casual fans to sit through a rebuild

I'd certainly agree with that unless someone falls to us that our scouts project as a 1st line center, that has been such an organizational need for so long, could be almost negligent if we picked a winger over Lindstrom or Catton. I don't believe either of those guys are available at 8 to 10 however.

[Dude Where's Makar?]

So if I'm interpreting tankathon correctly, The Flames (if selecting at 8th overall where I project them to pick) would have a 12.4% chance at a top 3 pick. 1st 6% 2nd 6.2% 3rd 0.2%

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Dude Where's Makar?

So if I'm interpreting tankathon correctly, The Flames (if selecting at 8th overall where I project them to pick) would have a 12.4% chance at a top 3 pick. 1st 6% 2nd 6.2% 3rd 0.2%

We can’t pick top 3 unless we finish top 3. Only the 1st 2 picks are selected by lottery now

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

I'd certainly agree with that unless someone falls to us that our scouts project as a 1st line center, that has been such an organizational need for so long, could be almost negligent if we picked a winger over Lindstrom or Catton. I don't believe either of those guys are available at 8 to 10 however.

100% agree. Dont throw the list out because he’s there, he’s probably going to be there if we’re picking 8-10. Trust your scouts and if he’s the next guy up you grab him.

Side note, I personally see Catton as a winger at the nhl level. Haven’t watched him a ton but he reminds me a lot of Marner. Maybe he’s a Brayden point but I still project him as a winger

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

We can’t pick top 3 unless we finish top 3. Only the 1st 2 picks are selected by lottery now

You have it the opposite way.

The worst team won’t fall lower than 3rd. Teams can move up 10 spots, so teams up to 13th have a chance to pick in the top 3.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

You have it the opposite way.

The worst team won’t fall lower than 3rd. Teams can move up 10 spots, so teams up to 13th have a chance to pick in the top 3.

Sorry yes missed that detail. So if we ended 13th we could pick 3rd

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Dude Where's Makar?

So if I'm interpreting tankathon correctly, The Flames (if selecting at 8th overall where I project them to pick) would have a 12.4% chance at a top 3 pick. 1st 6% 2nd 6.2% 3rd 0.2%

You can’t add odds like that.


Their chance of picking in the top 3 would be .94x.938x.998=.8799-1=12%.

But I am having trouble figuring out how they could pick 3rd?

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You can’t add odds like that.


Their chance of picking in the top 3 would be .94x.938x.998=.8799-1=12%.

But I am having trouble figuring out how they could pick 3rd?

If we win the lottery we pick 1st
If we win the second lottery we pick 2nd

If we win the first and we’re 13th we’d move up to 3
If we win the second and we’re 13th we’d move up to 3 as well no?
Otherwise we don’t move up

[Tbull8]

All these hypotheticals made me think of a weird super unlikely scenario.

Say the 15th team wins the lottery. They can only move up 10 to 5th.
Then the 8th team wins the 2nd pick lottery. They only pick 2nd correct? and the worst team would still be given 1st overall?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

All these hypotheticals made me think of a weird super unlikely scenario.

Say the 15th team wins the lottery. They can only move up 10 to 5th.
Then the 8th team wins the 2nd pick lottery. They only pick 2nd correct? and the worst team would still be given 1st overall?

Yup, worst team gets 1st overall if the team who wins can't get 1st

[PuckDemon]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You can’t add odds like that.


Their chance of picking in the top 3 would be .94x.938x.998=.8799-1=12%.

But I am having trouble figuring out how they could pick 3rd?

I think the way he added the odds is the correct way to do it. The tankathon odds all add up to 100%.

The Flames, if they ended up in 8th position, can pick 3rd if this happens:

1) The 12th position team wins the 1st overall lottery. They are limited to a jump of 10 spots, so they end up in 2nd overall instead.

2) The Flames then win the 2nd overall lottery. Since that spot is already taken, the Flames get bumped down to 3rd overall.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If NJ picks 10-12, I really doubt they are trading that pick.

For Markstrom!

[Roof-Daddy]

If NJD picks 10-12 and Tij is still on the board they probably take him just out of spite.

Sure sounds like Fitz is a whiny little beeeyotch and his feelings got hurt by Conroy not wavering in his ask for Markstrom

[Groot]

I would love to find a way to package the Vancouver 1st with something and move up to top 12, having two top 12 picks in this draft would help move the rebuild forward. Take Lindstrom at 8 and Tij at 12.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

If we win the lottery we pick 1st
If we win the second lottery we pick 2nd

If we win the first and we’re 13th we’d move up to 3
If we win the second and we’re 13th we’d move up to 3 as well no?
Otherwise we don’t move up

I get that, but they have the 8th place team with 0.2% odds of picking third?

[SuperMatt18]

IMO the only asset we have that could maybe get us another top 15 pick would be Andersson and maybe Markstrom if the Devils decide to offer their 2024 pick again, but I think it would be more Andersson.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I get that, but they have the 8th place team with 0.2% odds of picking third?

Would have to be the 12th overall team winning the 1st lottery and then the 8th place team winning the second lottery as the worst team would hold the 1st overall.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Would have to be the 12th overall team winning the 1st lottery and then the 8th place team winning the second lottery as the worst team would hold the 1st overall.

But
It has to happen now to make sense!

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by PuckDemon

I think the way he added the odds is the correct way to do it. The tankathon odds all add up to 100%.

The Flames, if they ended up in 8th position, can pick 3rd if this happens:

1) The 12th position team wins the 1st overall lottery. They are limited to a jump of 10 spots, so they end up in 2nd overall instead.

2) The Flames then win the 2nd overall lottery. Since that spot is already taken, the Flames get bumped down to 3rd overall.

Of course they add up to 100, as all teams are involved.

Look at it this way.

Let’s say Calgary has 2 games to play, each with a 50% chance of winning.

Is there chance of winning at least one game 100%? Of course not.

To find out their chance of winning at least one game, you need to calculate their chance of losing both games. That ‘s .50x.50= 25%. .25-1.00. =.75. So they have a 75% chance of winning at least 1. In reality, we know they have a 25% chance of winning both or losing both, and a 50% chance of winning 1.

To figure out Calgary’s chance of picking at least in the top 3, you need to figure out their chances on not picking in the top 3 and subtracting from 100%. So you multiply the inverse of 6, 6.2 and 0,2 and subtract from 100%, getting about 12%.