Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[united]

Posting again as I made the mistake of doing so during the period of reactionary hot takes.

What we know is that James Neal is a far better finisher than Milan Lucic, but Milan Lucic is a better two-way player and brings the physical element. We also know that neither of the two are playing in the top six on this Calgary Flames team. The kicker, to me, could be Lucic's penalty differential blackhole.

Given Neal relies on his teammates to get him the puck in order to exploit his phenomenal release, he is a poor fit in the bottom six of any team. On a non-playoff team like the Oilers, he will get the opportunity to play in the top six and possibly with McDavid dishing to him. He can camp in open areas and fire away, of course only when the Oilers have the puck in the offensive zone which won't be very often especially when factoring in his ineffectivness in the defensive and neutral zones.

With Lucic, he rapidly lost his ability to generate offense, and never had a great shot to begin with, but is still reliable defensively and is nearly impossible move from the front of the net once he gets there. In the bottom six he will be just fine as a utility player and nobody can deny he brings a scary physical element few in the league bring. The big detriment with Lucic is even in his later years he is still wildly undisciplined and over the course of the season that adds up significantly if you aren't drawing penalties to offset it - which he doesn't, at all - but this is something Bill Peters should be able to tame to an extent.

If Lucic can reign in his temper while still holding opponents accountable, I think Neal will have the better counting numbers but the Flames will be better off overall. Neal brought nothing to the table here, while Lucic can if he puts his mind to it and controls himself a bit.


Here are their respective time-weighted impacts on teammates for last season isolated, and the last two seasons cumulative. Plus non-fight/misconduct PIM differential.

                    2018-19 only
          xG%     HD%     CF%    PIM +/-
Lucic  +1.62    +3.71    +3.16    -29
Neal   -5.65    -5.79    -2.27     0 (Even)

                 2018-19 and 2017-18
          xG%     HD%     CF%    PIM +/-
Lucic  +2.63    +4.55    +2.34    -63
Neal   +0.42    +2.24    +3.50    +34

[neo45]

I really don’t think Lucic will click with Ryan like Hathaway did. That line was dynamite because of their speed and quick transitions

Lucic will play with Jankowski I think, and try to get the cycle game going

Czarnik will get a chance in Hathaway’s spot I imagine. Dube has to earn his roster spot out of camp still

[dammage79]

I mean. At the end of the day, will any of this really matter if the Flames make a cup run? Not really. I think you generally go deep with big guys like Lucic. I wont even really care much if he does much of anything in the regular season except keep the other teams honest in regards to slashing etc. Bit if he can help put a little fear into the opposition's hearts come playoff time, then all is well. These thoughts really dont do much to alleviate how bad this trade feels still but a good run will definitely help put these icky feelings to rest.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I'd be floored if Lucic scores 11 goals, so that's one area where I very much doubt he replaces what Hathaway gave us.

Would you be penciling Hathaway in for another 11 if he were back?

I think you look at either one of them and assume 5 - 10 goals for the year.

[Vinny01]

I wonder if Lucic could find a niche playing with Tkachuk and Backlund. Chucky will keep him engaged with the scrums and Lucic has been a strong possession player. Both Tkachuk and Lucic are slow but Backlund brings good speed up the middle and our D is often active so it could work?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by neo45

I really don’t think Lucic will click with Ryan like Hathaway did. That line was dynamite because of their speed and quick transitions

I don't think Hathaway especially "clicked" with Ryan either way.



Mangiapane is the one who clicked with Ryan IMO, and Hathaway was just there for the ride

[Heavy Jack]

I’d sooner try Bennett in the top 6 versus Lucic at this point; we have more time and energy invested in Bennett and he could still find another gear where as Lucic is going to be settling into the next stage of his career and is better suited for the bottom six. I do think he sees power play time though and with how free Peters is with blending lines at certain times during games there is no doubt we will see Lucic take some 5 on 5 reps with Tkachuk/Backlund, it just won’t be a constant and that’s ok.

[Enoch Root]

I like the idea of Mangiapane - Ryan - Lucic

[Mayo]

Just watching Lucic's highlight videos...I don't think he was ever much faster than he is now...I mean his best season points wise was when he was on a line with Iggy and at that point Iggy wasn't fast either

All the complaints about Lucic about his time in Edmonton was how slow he was....how much of this was actually an issue of speed vs poor utilization

We're a quick team as well but hopefully we can find a way to better use this guy

[Mayo]

Also - I hope Lucic has some serious chips on his shoulder with some of the guys in the Edmonton locker room.

List of players I would like to see him stroke out this year:
-Nurse
-Kassian
-Kassian
-Kassian

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by united

Posting again as I made the mistake of doing so during the period of reactionary hot takes.

What we know is that James Neal is a far better finisher than Milan Lucic, but Milan Lucic is a better two-way player and brings the physical element. We also know that neither of the two are playing in the top six on this Calgary Flames team. The kicker, to me, could be Lucic's penalty differential blackhole.

Given Neal relies on his teammates to get him the puck in order to exploit his phenomenal release, he is a poor fit in the bottom six of any team. On a non-playoff team like the Oilers, he will get the opportunity to play in the top six and possibly with McDavid dishing to him. He can camp in open areas and fire away, of course only when the Oilers have the puck in the offensive zone which won't be very often especially when factoring in his ineffectivness in the defensive and neutral zones.

With Lucic, he rapidly lost his ability to generate offense, and never had a great shot to begin with, but is still reliable defensively and is nearly impossible move from the front of the net once he gets there. In the bottom six he will be just fine as a utility player and nobody can deny he brings a scary physical element few in the league bring. The big detriment with Lucic is even in his later years he is still wildly undisciplined and over the course of the season that adds up significantly if you aren't drawing penalties to offset it - which he doesn't, at all - but this is something Bill Peters should be able to tame to an extent.

If Lucic can reign in his temper while still holding opponents accountable, I think Neal will have the better counting numbers but the Flames will be better off overall. Neal brought nothing to the table here, while Lucic can if he puts his mind to it and controls himself a bit.


Here are their respective time-weighted impacts on teammates for last season isolated, and the last two seasons cumulative. Plus non-fight/misconduct PIM differential.

                    2018-19 only
          xG%     HD%     CF%    PIM +/-
Lucic  +1.62    +3.71    +3.16    -29
Neal   -5.65    -5.79    -2.27     0 (Even)

                 2018-19 and 2017-18
          xG%     HD%     CF%    PIM +/-
Lucic  +2.63    +4.55    +2.34    -63
Neal   +0.42    +2.24    +3.50    +34

I agree. I think the best case scenario is Lucic uses his huge frame to help his line possess the puck while being disciplined and not taking a billion penalties. As Jonathan Willis and Blake McCurdy, two of the best Oilers writers, have said, Milan Lucic’s lines usually do remarkably well with respect to puck possession. If anyone can make sure that this positive contribution is not outweighed by his penalty differential, it’s Bill Peters. His teams are usually quite disciplined.

[flames_fan_down_under]

My prediction for Lucic: He won't be very good offensively, however will be effective in a bottom 6 role, will muck it up with some morons from opposing teams, he won't score many goals but he will score some big goals, I will cheer for him regardless and I will slowly develop a soft spot for him, and that will be that.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

My prediction for Lucic: He won't be very good offensively, however will be effective in a bottom 6 role, will muck it up with some morons from opposing teams, he won't score many goals but he will score some big goals, I will cheer for him regardless and I will slowly develop a soft spot for him, and that will be that.

I think that's a pretty good summary.

[TheScorpion]

It's been too long since the Flames had a useful #17. Who was the last one, Bourque?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Would you be penciling Hathaway in for another 11 if he were back?

I think you look at either one of them and assume 5 - 10 goals for the year.

Honestly, no, I wouldn't be assuming another 11 from Hathaway. But if we are discussing whether or not Lucic can replace what Hathaway gave us last year, then his bar is what Hathaway gave us last year.

And GranteedEV - if you want to get into a shooting percentage last year vs. career norms debate, then the only thing you'll do is make this trade look even worse than it does already. Neal is more likely to return to career norms at this point than Lucic is - especially since the latter has been an awful finisher for two full seasons now.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's been too long since the Flames had a useful #17. Who was the last one, Bourque?

Bouma for a season or two.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So in other words, the deal doesn't make sense which in turn is why I think it was born completely of desperation.

There HAD to be something coming back to the Flames that at least somewhat alleviated the contract/risk coming with Lucic...not the money but the impossibility of getting out from him continuing the complete suckage of the last 2 1/2 years.

Again in the last 19 calendar months (122 games)...he has SEVEN goals.

Obviously it appears they needed him out of the room...but why not just a buy out instead of acquiring what is a much worse contract in terms of getting out of it?

I have no way of knowing for sure, but I cannot believe that if they didnt offer him around for 50% retained (a much much preferable outcome) they could not have at least gotten a 3rd or even a longshot prospect


Desperation IMO.

You think 8 years of cap hit is better than Lucic in Calgary. That's fine. But you're answering your own question aren't you? They didn't.

They think a deterrent and a better fit in the bottom six for half that term is a better move or they would have bought him out.

You can certainly call it desperation if you want, but I see it they really wanted Neal to go, spent weeks looking for a scenario and went with the best one they could fine.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by bax

You know what would be awesome?

Let’s rally around Lucic. Let’s show the hockey world that we respect a player that wants to be here and comes in to work hard, do his job, and protect his teammates.

Let’s get a Lucic chant going first game of the season and embrace him and his role on the team. Yes, the contract sucks but forget about that and take him for what he is at face value. He will fit in well on the 4th line and provide more than Neal was ever going to despite what he does in Edmonton.

We rescued him from Edmonton so let’s let him return the favor by hitting, fighting, and chipping in the odd goal. Yes, he’s a mean goon, but let’s embrace him as our mean goon.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

That's pretty much how I feel about it. The trade is done, we can complain all we want. But what's done is done. Our job now as fans, is to cheer the players on to perform the best they can. No sense in hating on Lucic. Yes his contract sucks. But he would have been a fool to turn down $42 million of guaranteed money, even if it was with Edmonton. I'd sign the dotted line too if that contract was put in front of me.

I feel on the ice it's a lateral move at best, although I do think Neal has a much better chance of rebounding. However if by some miracle Lucic can find his game again, he brings an element that the team desperately needs and Neal could never provide. The Flames are the 2nd best high powered offensive team in the league. Nobody is going to miss Neal's pathetic lack of offence.

I've calmed down since yesterday's trade news, so the way I see it now is that the Flames wanted to get rid of Neal, and they didn't need to hand over any additional cap space or assets to do so. They got back a player who sucks just as bad, but the worst part about him isn't his play, but rather his contract. But from what I've read, his NMC turn into a NTC when the expansion draft rolls around, so the team doesn't have to waste a spot for him. If that's all true, then it's really nothing to worry about.

I think Lucic has a style of play that meshes better with certain Flames' players then he did any Oiler's players. Guys like Bennett and Tkachuk would be better fits with him then Neal ever was with them. Lucic doesn't need to come here and have the spotlight on him like it was in Edmonton. He can come here and just be himself. Simplify his game a bit and not have to worry as much.

I still think the trade sucks. But it's laughable to say it's amongst the worst trades in Flames' history. Not even close. It feels a lot worse then it really is, because Lucic is one of the 'stars' in the E=NG threads, acquiring players from Edmonton feels bad, and his contract blows. However the Flames gave up nothing, saved a bit of cap space, and potentially will get a draft pick. All to get rid of a guy most of us wanted gone in the first place. Those saying it's on par with the Phaneuf or Gilmour trade need to slap their heads around for a bit. The Flames LOST high quality in those trades and both trades set back the franchise years. We lost nothing of quality in this trade, and gained (relatively little) a net positive back in terms of cap space and a draft pick.

Game 1 I'll be cheering for Lucic. It feels....filthy to say that. But he's a Flame now and he deserves to prove himself.

[zuluking]

If I can halfheartedly cheer for Todd Bertuzzi, I can find it in myself to do so for Milan Lucic. “Yay...”

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Well Calgary was Neal's 5th team in a 10 year nhl career.and his rep was out there ...

I don't relish being a negative Nancy so I did not participate in the Neal signing thread but it seemed to me at the time to be a dreadful mix of both parties' desperation. Neal wasn't getting offers with term and Calgary was coming off finishing 27th in the league in goals.

So you do it extremely often but don't enjoy it?

Neal was a different beast in Calgary though. Not sure you can find the examples of Neal getting moved to the bottom of the roster or the press box in the other locales.

And maybe he wasn't a problem in the room. The Gaudreau Lucic call makes it seem that way but I certainly don't know.