2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, that's what irks me about excusing the front-offices inaction with claims about positive regression to the mean... it presupposes that all the stuff that went wrong last year will go right this year and that nothing that went right last year will go wrong this year.

No, if that happened the Jays would win 100~ games.

If they have some positive regression and some negative regression this team will win 90~ games like last year and have another go at the playoffs probably, which makes all the whining about the "terrible off season" moot.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

So pumped. Jays flying under everybody's radar. They have a decent team. I'm ready to go.

Goooooooooo Jayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyys

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

No, if that happened the Jays would win 100~ games.

If they have some positive regression and some negative regression this team will win 90~ games like last year and have another go at the playoffs probably, which makes all the whining about the "terrible off season" moot.

If the regressions offset (and maybe they will, pitching was "luckier" than average last year while hitting was "unluckier" than average") then all you have is the straight up changes they made

Turner replaces Belt as DH: call this a wash, even though turner had worse OBP and slugging percentage and is older.

IKF replaces Chapman: pretty clear downgrade, imo.

Rodriguez replaces Hicks: could be an upgrade over the long term if he grows into a starter, but having someone throwing 100mph to lock down the 8th in a tight game is nice also.

?? replaces Ryu as starter #5: this one is a big question mark imo. If we get Cy Young version of Manoah back or Tiedeman turns into the next Jose Berrios thats a huge upgrade. If we end up with a bunch of bullpen days and a rotating cast of guys getting chased in the third this one could be a big downgrade.

Anyway, I think over the off-season if you assume regressions equal out between pitching and hitting I think the team is a bit worse. Not dramatically, probably like 2-3 wins worth.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

If the regressions offset (and maybe they will, pitching was "luckier" than average last year while hitting was "unluckier" than average") then all you have is the straight up changes they made

Turner replaces Belt as DH: call this a wash, even though turner had worse OBP and slugging percentage and is older.

IKF replaces Chapman: pretty clear downgrade, imo.

Rodriguez replaces Hicks: could be an upgrade over the long term if he grows into a starter, but having someone throwing 100mph to lock down the 8th in a tight game is nice also.

?? replaces Ryu as starter #5: this one is a big question mark imo. If we get Cy Young version of Manoah back or Tiedeman turns into the next Jose Berrios thats a huge upgrade. If we end up with a bunch of bullpen days and a rotating cast of guys getting chased in the third this one could be a big downgrade.

Anyway, I think over the off-season if you assume regressions equal out between pitching and hitting I think the team is a bit worse. Not dramatically, probably like 2-3 wins worth.

Mostly agree. I don’t think there’s much difference in Chapman and IKF to be honest. Chapman will have better d and the occasional pop, but I think it’ll be offset with IKF’s average. I think they’ll be washes. Chapman was pretty over rated based on flashes and the potential he had. Like a lot of guys, just wildly inconsistent.

Anyway, I don’t see how most of the batting gets better. And that luck on pitching never happens normally. So I do see them slightly worse this year as well.

[Sylvanfan]

Blue Jays had too many guys who would strikeout in clutch situations. I get that RBI is a meaningless stat, but 2 out walks with no one on and a lot of solo home runs was pretty much what Belt delivered. So yeah the 858 OPS looks nice, but was it that productive? He scored 53 runs and drove in 43 in 400 plate appearances. Plus the injury factor and 141 strikeouts... So to me that's a lot of empty calories. Chapman was just bad after April. Threw out that month and I expect his OPS+ might have been 80...

[flamingred89]

Todays the big day!

Booked the afternoon off work. Gonna grab some Establishment brews. Long Weekend. Life is good.

Lets ####ing Go Blue Jays!!!!

[activeStick]

EXCITED!! Even WFH today, which I hate! Let's go Jays!!!

[looooob]

I'll be there!

[KelVarnsen]

I don't have high hopes for this season. I don't think the team is any better on paper then they were last year. If the bats show up then they should be a good team, if not well...

I'd love to be wrong since I'd enjoy them winning. But I just don't see it happening.

Though I am jaded and bitter so that could be affecting my outlook.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Interesting that they DFA’d Yosver Zulueta. He was a guy who looked to be a future back end of the bullpen guy with great stuff but he has no command. I hope that they can find a way to keep him. It will be interesting to see if he clears waivers - it’s a busy time with teams cutting down their rosters so hopefully he can be sent down and get things sorted out.

[Jason14h]

2022 WAR 2023 WAR
Vladdy 4.0 2.0
Springer 4.1 2.1
Varsho 4.8 3.9
Kirk 2.2 0.6

Those 4 players had a combined drop of 6.5 Wins

Now 3rd Base we have a real question mark. IKF was a 0 WAR last year and Chapman was 4.4 . I am not thrilled at all at the 3rd base situation going into this season.

2B / Utility we basically had a black hole. Merrifield was 0.7, Biggio 0.8, and Espinal 0.5

So if we get a bounce-back to 2022 hitting and someone to take a hold of the 2B job and produce a 2.0 WAR we are looking at ~8.0 WAR bounce back from last year (Maybe even more as Bichette got hurt and cost the team 1-2WAR during that time, and a 4.0 WAR for Vladdy is still pretty MEH)

Now I expect pitching to take a step back. Having 4 starters healthy all year is unheard of.

This is why adding an extra power bat really doesn't 'matter' in the grand scheme of things. The team will live and die whether Vlad, Springer, Kirk, and Varsho bounce back, and Bo continues to improve.

If they dont the team is dead in the water either way, and i would fully expect a rebuild starting in the offseason as that is your core , and they would have failed.

[calculoso]

Opening day roster

https://twitter.com/user/status/1773385896479604795

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

?? replaces Ryu as starter #5: this one is a big question mark imo. If we get Cy Young version of Manoah back or Tiedeman turns into the next Jose Berrios thats a huge upgrade. If we end up with a bunch of bullpen days and a rotating cast of guys getting chased in the third this one could be a big downgrade.

I think Bowden Francis will do a solid job as the fifth starter. He’s got excellent stuff and has a winning mindset.

For a huge chunk of last season, we really didn’t have a 5th starter at all. Ryu didn’t come back until August. Manoah was a disaster in his starts and only threw 87 innings. I’d argue that a stretched out Francis as the fifth starter puts us in a better position that we were in for most of last season.

[Roof-Daddy]

Along with Francis...

Mitch White might be good now
Wes Parsons might be good now
Ricky T is already in AAA
Yariel Rodriguez also looks good

I think a lot will have to wrong for starting pitching to be a weakness, but anything is possible I guess.

[calculoso]

Opening day lineup

https://twitter.com/user/status/1773391701140504696

Vladdy at 2
Bo at 3
Turner at 4

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Along with Francis...

Mitch White might be good now
Wes Parsons might be good now
Ricky T is already in AAA
Yariel Rodriguez also looks good

I think a lot will have to wrong for starting pitching to be a weakness, but anything is possible I guess.

Yeah. There's no sure thing there, but having 5 lottery balls that could win makes it a lot more likely that you have 1 winner in there. That's why I said it's a big question mark - if one of them breaks out that could conceivably be a big upgrade from last year. But it could also be a bunch of meh. It's hard to predict, so the potential range of outcomes is high. It's a high risk high reward sort of situation.

Basically the opposite of IKF, imo. With him, I think the risk of him being much worse than expected is very low, but he's not suddenly becoming prime Derek Jeter either. He is what he is, so we're losing a few WAR at 3B we need to make up elsewhere.

[Ducay]

I mean on paper I like the offense better than last year. Nice going into the season with decent hopes but low-ish expectations

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Opening day lineup

https://twitter.com/user/status/1773391701140504696

Vladdy at 2
Bo at 3
Turner at 4

The bottom of that lineup better play small ball and make
Pitcher work …

[Roof-Daddy]

Zulueta was snapped up by the Reds

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah. There's no sure thing there, but having 5 lottery balls that could win makes it a lot more likely that you have 1 winner in there. That's why I said it's a big question mark - if one of them breaks out that could conceivably be a big upgrade from last year. But it could also be a bunch of meh. It's hard to predict, so the potential range of outcomes is high. It's a high risk high reward sort of situation.

Basically the opposite of IKF, imo. With him, I think the risk of him being much worse than expected is very low, but he's not suddenly becoming prime Derek Jeter either. He is what he is, so we're losing a few WAR at 3B we need to make up elsewhere.

I think you can include Kikuchi as a lottery ball seeing how he pitched two seasons ago and how his spring went.