American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GGG]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I know we're 2.5 years out but yeesh.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1552482127404490752

I suspect the predictive power of polling 2.5 years out to be near zero

[opendoor]

Interesting set of results from that poll. If other polling matches this, Biden really needs to consider pulling an LBJ:

11. In the 2024 presidential election, do you currently plan on voting for a Democratic or Republican candidate?

a. Democrat: 55%
b. Republican: 45%

12. In a general election race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who would you prefer?

a. Joe Biden: 47%
b. Donald Trump: 53%

13. In a general election race between President Joe Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence, who would you prefer?

a. Joe Biden: 46%
b. Mike Pence; 54%

14. In a general election race between President Joe Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who would you prefer?

a. Joe Biden: 47%
b. Ron DeSantis: 53%

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GGG

I suspect the predictive power of polling 2.5 years out to be near zero

No, but it tells you how unpopular Biden is.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, but it tells you how unpopular Biden is.

So does the approval rating -19 is historically bad.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...al-rating/amp/

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, but it tells you how unpopular Biden is.

I'd be surprised if Biden ran for a second term. I think either pressure from the party or healthy will drive him towards retirement. I don't know how he could survive being President for 6 more years.

[MoneyGuy]

I don’t think that either Trump nor Biden will run. It’ll be DeSantis vs. TBD.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, but it tells you how unpopular Biden is.

And we're likely not even going to enter fully into recession until late this year or 2023...

[activeStick]

Saw an interesting clip tonight from ABC that the RNC has told Trump that they will stop paying his legal bills if he announces his candidacy for 2024. They're obviously concerned that their strategy for the midterms around Biden would be threatened by Trump and his baggage as a result of the Jan 6 hearings. I wonder if Trump will fall in line?

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by GGG

So does the approval rating -19 is historically bad.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...al-rating/amp/

I’m not entirely certain Biden is mentally fit for office now, in 2028 he’d be a virtual corpse. Couple that with the economy (irrelevant if it’s his fault or not, he’s the president) it’s no surprise.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GGG

So does the approval rating -19 is historically bad.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...al-rating/amp/

This is the more important number that shows consistent bad results instead of random polls of Trump vs Biden (of which there are plenty that show different results, and other that show the same)

Here's the full list of semi recent presidential polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

Incidentally - Biden still shows better in the polls there than Harris or Sanders in the few that include them. But again - those are just single polls so relatively meaningless.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I’m not entirely certain Biden is mentally fit for office now, in 2028 he’d be a virtual corpse. Couple that with the economy (irrelevant if it’s his fault or not, he’s the president) it’s no surprise.

This seems really unnecessary.

While completely true, the whole world would pretty much be better to see him move on, given the politics at this point in time (which could always change in the next year, you never know), if stumbling over words is your measure, I could present a lot of 20 years olds who are struggling with cognitive decline.

And while "but the other guy" shouldn't matter, the other guy if re-elected would be older in his future term than Biden is in this one, definitely isn't a step ahead of Biden for clarity of speach, if you want to argue that a president has control over inflation he certainly has a level of culpability equal or above Bidens, and while somewhat dangerous for us laymen to armchair diagnose over the internet clearly suffers from an extreme case of narcissistic personality disorder. Given all of the great choices out there, the world is extremely lucky to have Biden.

And all of that said, I don't think it's a decision that should be made early in the process, if Biden plans to step down, let the other guys spend the next 18 months running against him.

[Coach]

Kingzinger should run as a Democrat.

Biden should step aside. People under 40 dont want to see these people anymore. Pelosi and Schumer too. Need a totally new cycle of leadership. People should be running for President in their 40s not 70s.

[Azure]

Thoughts on Cuban or Bezos running?

What Mark Cuban is doing right now with Cost Plug Drugs is rather remarkable.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

no more billionaires who want to run the country like a corporation.

Real policy from real policy makers only please.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

no more billionaires who want to run the country like a corporation.

Real policy from real policy makers only please.

And who exactly are those people?

I'm not saying Cuban is a good choice, or that I even like the guy, but Cost Plus Drugs is doing something Congress hasn't been able or willing to do, ever.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

no more billionaires who want to run the country like a corporation.

Real policy from real policy makers only please.

I get where you're coming from but...

1. He's not a Billionaire and never has been, he just Cosplays as one.

2. He ran the Country like its a Chuck-E-Cheese joint and he could keep all the excess tokens.

The fact of the matter is, a real Billionaire wouldnt want any part of being President.

A country cant be run like a Company. They are organizations with inherently diverse interests and goals.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Locke

I get where you're coming from but...

1. He's not a Billionaire and never has been, he just Cosplays as one.

2. He ran the Country like its a Chuck-E-Cheese joint and he could keep all the excess tokens.

The fact of the matter is, a real Billionaire wouldnt want any part of being President.

A country cant be run like a Company. They are organizations with inherently diverse interests and goals.

While that may be true, I think there is a good reason we see people go from the private sector to the public sector and back again with ease.

[Dion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1553027386148638720

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Azure

While that may be true, I think there is a good reason we see people go from the private sector to the public sector and back again with ease.

Yeah. Call me an ass, but I'd be all for something like a 5-year cool-off period between switching.

Compensate them, I'm not advocating for putting them out of work, but enabling a buffer of some kind to diminish the benefit of shilling for your old or future company while in office.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Azure

Thoughts on Cuban or Bezos running?

What Mark Cuban is doing right now with Cost Plug Drugs is rather remarkable.

No. Wealthy men and celebrities of both genders think they’re qualified for office but they’re not. I’ll never forget Trump saying that his daughter could be president because she’s beautiful. Enough of that sh1t. Governments are not businesses and shouldn’t be run like businesses.