2023 FIBA World Cup

[CofR]

The draw happened this morning and Canada is in Group H facing France, Lebanon, and Latvia in Jakarta.

August 26 - Canada vs France
August 28 - Lebanon vs Canada
August 30 - Canada vs Latvia

[GirlySports]

Will Canada have a somewhat full team?

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Will Canada have a somewhat full team?

That's always the question. With a full team, we can do real damage.

[CofR]

Seems like pretty much everyone other than Wiggins is in camp right now. Should be a good team and hopefully a long tournament!

[octothorp]

Yeah, Wiggins, Boucher and Lyles are the only real omissions (plus Clarke but I believe he's injured). They're a little undersized, but still this will be by far the most powerful lineup Canada has ever fielded. Having SGA and Murray in the guard positions puts soooo much pressure on defenses, even with the benefit of the easier defensive rules in FIBA, and these guys have a lot of experience going against Gobert.

It's going to be tough though, they still have to beat either the #4 (France) or #1 (Spain) ranked teams to advance past the group stages. It's very interesting that with Nurse out, Jordi Fernandez is the new head coach, and he's got extensive experience with the Spanish program.

So much is going to come down to that first game. Beat France, and a long run is definitely a possibility. Lose that one, and they've basically got to run the table the rest of the way. That game against Spain could end up being the biggest in modern Canadian basketball history... There are so few chances to play the #1-ranked team in a tournament of this calibre. Win that one and it should solidly move them into the top 10 in FIBA rankings and ensure that they aren't constantly getting bad draws.

[octothorp]

Canada will have their first exhibition matches next week in Germany. First an exhibition game against Germany, then a mini-tournament where they'll play New Zealand, and either China or Germany again. Brisset and Joseph have both withdrawn, while Murray is skipping the Germany tournament but still plans to play in the WC. They'll have another mini-tournament the following week in Granada, in which they'll play Spain and Argentina.

The loss of Brissett stings a bit, and we're going to have to reach deeper into our non-NBA depth. Someone like Ejim may end up playing an important role.

[octothorp]

Just a reminder, Canada vs. France is at 7am tomorrow on Sportsnet. Huge game, how Canada does at France will tell whether they're set up for a long run, or a win-or-go-home situation for all the remaining games.

[octothorp]

Amazing third quarter for Canada... that's something that's really been missing from previous interations of this team: that ability to just turn it up a gear in the middle of a tight game.

[octothorp]

Final score, 95:65. First game of the tournament, but still one of the biggest wins in this program's recent history. It sets them up amazingly to get through the group stages. Really looked like a different mindset than previous versions of the team... as someone who's been heavily invested in rooting for this national program since the early 2010s, this feels like a major breakthrough.

[CofR]

This morning felt like a monumental moment for this program

[octothorp]

Yeah, what felt different to me is that it finally looked like they came to play FIBA basketball, rather than just playing NBA-style ball and hoping that their talent-advantage would carry them. Obviously SGA was great, but I was really impressed with the physicality and rebounding... those rebounding rules can be so tough to adjust to, but Canada was playing the boards perfectly at both ends. And everyone played their role. Nobody looked like they were treating it as an opportunity to showcase themselves... which I think might be the effect of guys committing to the team for multiple years.

[octothorp]

No real surprises on day two... maybe just the extent that Brazil dominated Iran (likely punching their ticket to the second round where they'll be in the same group as Canada), and Serbia looking like they're still a powerhouse even without Jokic. US got off to a really slow start against NZ and Edwards insisting that he needed to be a starter looks like a mistake... They've still got the talent to cruise and should meet a stiff test until the quarterfinals, so they've got time to gel and figure things out.

Canada plays Lebanon tomorrow at 3am, but Australia/Germany is the biggest matchup of the night. Franz Wagner had injured his ankle in their first game and is a maybe to play.

From a Canadian perspective, the Italy / Dominican game has some implications. While a loss doesn't knock DR out of the tournament, it gives them a very tough path to reach the quarterfinals, which would mean that Canada can likely earn an Olympic bid by advancing out of the group stages into the quarterfinals. (We get an Olympic bid by being one of the top-two ranked Americas teams, and with the US likely getting one of those spots, the Dominicans are our main threat for the other spot).

[octothorp]

So Canada's game was a cakewalk, but a few really interesting results this morning: Lativa beat France, eliminating France regardless of what happens in the final group games (France has their Olympic qualification already guaranteed as host); Germany beat out Australia (without Franz Wagner!), and both those teams will likely advance to the second group stage but Germany now has a huge advantage for qualifying for the quarterfinals; Dominican Republic beat Italy, also gaining a huge leg up for qualifying for the QFs (and putting pressure on Canada for that second Americas Olympic qualification). While Japan won't advance, getting a win over Finland is a huge victory for their program.

Spain vs. Brazil is the premier matchup tonight/tomorrow, but US/Greece will also be worth following to get a better idea of where the American team is at.

Something that happened last week that people who only follow the big tournaments may have missed, but Bahamas beat Argentina last week in a game to qualify for the Olympic qualifying tournaments next summer. Which means Argentina didn't just fail to qualify for the WC and Olympics this cycle, they failed to get into the final qualifying tournaments. Really huge fall for a team that was a perennial top-5-in-the-world (still ranked 3rd!) team a decade ago when they had Manu and Scola.

[CofR]

I’ll never forget losing to Argentina in the 2015 FIBA Americas when Scola had like almost 40 points or something crazy like that

[GirlySports]

Canada-Latvia game now huge as that result carries over into the second group stage.

[DirtyMike]

Excited for the game v. Latvia tomorrow, though I don't think it should be particularly close given how Canada has played so far.

Will be interesting to see how Canada fares against Spain & Brazil in the next round. Seems like they've got a great chance of earning an Olympic Qualifying spot, but I felt similarly in years past prior to the disappointments against Venezuela and the Czechs.

[octothorp]

Yeah, I have a hard time getting a read on Brazil in the next round. I don't think they'll be a serious challenge, but I worry about them a lot more than Latvia.

An interesting thing to keep an eye on, if both Spain and Canada remain undefeated and win their groups, and then beat Latvia and Brazil respectively in their first group L games, it'll set up a situation where both teams have already qualified for the quarterfinals when they go head-to-head in the final group-stage game, and the winner of that game will have a potential matchup against the US in the semifinals, but the loser will avoid the US until the finals (assuming the US remains undefeated). Will either or both of the teams treat that as a bit of a rest game, with no real advantage to winning?

The group A games could be very interesting tonight. Maybe the boring thing happens and Italy and Dominican win their games and advance. But the points-differentials between the teams are really close, and there are a lot of different ways that group could finish.

The rest of the games tonight either look fairly one-sided, or are irrelevant to seeding. Japan vs. Australia is a win-and-advance game, but shouldn't be close. Lithuania vs. Montenegro for the top of group D might be interesting; Montenegro has had some good games against good european teams in qualifying.

[octothorp]

Tough but gritty first half, dominant second half, another impressive final score. I'm really impressed with Jordi's coaching and the way he has these guys locked in, and also the way he's managing the adjustments and rotations.

[EldrickOnIce]

Re standings
Do I have this right?
2 points for a win, 1 point for a loss?
I don't understand

[octothorp]

Yeah, and 0 for a forfeit. It doesn't really make a difference in a big tournament like this, but it's more-so to ensure that teams don't skip games in other stages and tournaments... particularly where a team knows they're going to lose, but have a lot of travel involved. Then they use that system consistently in all competitions.

edit: worth noting that this rule cost South Korea a WC appearance this year. They likely would have qualified easily as one of the top teams in Asia (they're certainly better than Lebanon and Jordan), but a covid outbreak caused them to miss one group of qualifying games, and getting no points in those games (rather than the single points that they would have gotten if they played and lost), was likely the difference in advancing.