03-06-2020, 12:35 PM
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#121
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Put me in the camp that is happy that we didn't sign a 27 year old Mark Stone to a 8 year $10M contract, and that would rather not sign Taylor Hall or Gaudreau to 7/8 year contracts at $10M+ per season.
Except for the truly generational forwards (Kane,Ovy, Crosby, Malkin) age curves don't tend to treat forwards well, especially at 5v5 scoring.
There are 5 forwards aged 30 or over that are PPG this year.
-Marchand
-Kane
-Malkin
-Ovechkin
- Crosby
The top 5 scoring forwards over 35 are:
Eric Staal: 0.71 PPG
Parise: 0.67 PPG
Brown: 0.49 PPG
Pavelski: 0.46 PPG
For these guys that are really good players, but not generational, and around 27-30 years old that are getting 8 year contracts the likelihood is you are getting 3-4 good years (until about age 32/33), and then 3-4 years where they are really over paid and the deal is not good.
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03-06-2020, 12:36 PM
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#122
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
It's no Gaudreau to Hall
It's Gaudreau to Hall+whatever Johnny can be traded for.
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You're leaving out a massive piece of the equation. A gigantic long term contract with high likelihood of becoming an anchor.
The issue should be whether the pieces you want the Flames to acquire are worth two years of Gaudreau at a good value contract. What are those pieces?
For me, Taylor Hall at seven years, $10 million per is a no. Whether Gaudreau is on my team or not.
And I also think whether you actually watch the player much does count. I have watched less than 60 minutes of Taylor Hall play hockey in the last two years so that should be considered when evaluating my opinion. I'm no expert on the guy. But to your point, of course you shouldn't assume someone who disagrees with you doesn't watch the guy.
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03-06-2020, 12:56 PM
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#123
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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On top of my previous note.
Here are contracts signed between Jan 1 2014 and Jan 1 2018 (players are 2-6 years into their contracts) for players that were 26 or older at the time, for 6+ years and $7M+
Carey Price: 29 - 8 x $10.5M (6 years remaining)
M.E. Vlasic: 30 - 8 x $7M (6 years remaining)
Brent Burns: 31 - 8 x $8M (5 years remaining)
Jamie Benn: 26 - 8 x $9.5M (5 years remaining)
Steven Stamkos: 26 - 8 x $8.5M (4 years remaining)
Anze Kopitar: 28 - 8 x $10M (4 years remaining)
Bobby Ryan: 27 - 7 x $7.25M (2 years remaining)
John Toews: 26 - 8 x $10.5M (3 years remaining)
Dion Phaneuf: 28 - 7 x $7.0M (Bought out)
Outside of Stamkos who signed for a huge discount at the time, and maybe Toews/Kopitar, which of those players are you super excited about having on your roster long term for $10M+ right now?
If the player is 26 like Toews & Stamkos were then I think you look at an 8 year term, but if they are 28 years or older, just stay away. 30 years old? Don't even think about it.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-06-2020 at 01:00 PM.
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03-06-2020, 01:10 PM
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#124
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Put me in the camp that is happy that we didn't sign a 27 year old Mark Stone to a 8 year $10M contract, and that would rather not sign Taylor Hall or Gaudreau to 7/8 year contracts at $10M+ per season.
Except for the truly generational forwards (Kane,Ovy, Crosby, Malkin) age curves don't tend to treat forwards well, especially at 5v5 scoring.
There are 5 forwards aged 30 or over that are PPG this year.
-Marchand
-Kane
-Malkin
-Ovechkin
- Crosby
The top 5 scoring forwards over 35 are:
Eric Staal: 0.71 PPG
Parise: 0.67 PPG
Brown: 0.49 PPG
Pavelski: 0.46 PPG
For these guys that are really good players, but not generational, and around 27-30 years old that are getting 8 year contracts the likelihood is you are getting 3-4 good years (until about age 32/33), and then 3-4 years where they are really over paid and the deal is not good.
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I’m not arguing against that, but at some point you have to say let’s be great now and worry about the last half of the contract in 4 years.
It’s basically unprecedented that a high end UFA has serious interest in signing in Calgary. Take advantage when you can.
Who knows how high the cap will be then? Have to go all in at some point
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03-06-2020, 01:14 PM
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#125
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
I’m not arguing against that, but at some point you have to say let’s be great now and worry about the last half of the contract in 4 years.
It’s basically unprecedented that a high end UFA has serious interest in signing in Calgary. Take advantage when you can.
Who knows how high the cap will be then? Have to go all in at some point
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This.
Its time to either take a crap or get off the toilet.
This core needs to be improved/added to in order to have a legit shot at winning a cup.
I'd rather sign a 22 year old right shot #1C than sign Hall, but I don't see one of those available anywhere, so why not sign the high end offensive winger if he's willing to come to Calgary?
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03-06-2020, 01:18 PM
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#126
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
This.
Its time to either take a crap or get off the toilet.
This core needs to be improved/added to in order to have a legit shot at winning a cup.
I'd rather sign a 22 year old right shot #1C than sign Hall, but I don't see one of those available anywhere, so why not sign the high end offensive winger if he's willing to come to Calgary?
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Gaudreau is our trading chip to acquire player X bolded.
Hall is signed to replace some of what Gaudreau brings. This of course assumes that Flames have the conversation with Gaudreau and ask if the money is there is he interested in staying or is he leaving regardless
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03-06-2020, 01:20 PM
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#127
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Franchise Player
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So which 22 year old right shot #1 C are we acquiring?
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03-06-2020, 01:31 PM
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#128
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
So which 22 year old right shot #1 C are we acquiring?
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I would say the correct answer to that is its not gonna happen.
If i could wave a magic wand it'd Barzal though.
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03-06-2020, 02:08 PM
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#129
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
I would say the correct answer to that is its not gonna happen.
If i could wave a magic wand it'd Barzal though.
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That might not be as far fetched as you think. There has been rumblings Barzal and Trotz don't get along.
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03-06-2020, 02:15 PM
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#130
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
That might not be as far fetched as you think. There has been rumblings Barzal and Trotz don't get along.
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Not sure how much input Trotz has on roster construction but I doubt Gaudreau is on his list of favourite players.
If you're moving Barzal because Trotz doesn't want him on the team you'd think he would get to pick the guy he replaces him with.
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03-06-2020, 02:17 PM
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#131
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
That might not be as far fetched as you think. There has been rumblings Barzal and Trotz don't get along.
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Well that'd be fantastic
Would you trade Gaudreau for Barzal?
Do you think the Isles would?
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03-06-2020, 02:30 PM
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#132
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
That might not be as far fetched as you think. There has been rumblings Barzal and Trotz don't get along.
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Where? Show us a legitimate source.
Plenty of players don't get along with their coaches. These 'rumblings' mean next to nothing.
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03-06-2020, 03:56 PM
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#134
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOfan
Where? Show us a legitimate source.
Plenty of players don't get along with their coaches. These 'rumblings' mean next to nothing.
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I was merely speculating maybe he is not untouchable.
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03-06-2020, 03:56 PM
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#135
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
Well that'd be fantastic
Would you trade Gaudreau for Barzal?
Do you think the Isles would?
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In a heartbeat. Not sure if the Isles would. We would have to add I think.
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03-06-2020, 05:34 PM
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#136
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Franchise Player
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I said this in another thread awhile ago when this was being discussed....if Barzal gets traded and Treliving doesn't bring him to the Flames I'll be soooooo pissed.
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03-06-2020, 05:52 PM
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#137
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Kelowna
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
I said this in another thread awhile ago when this was being discussed....if Barzal gets traded and Treliving doesn't bring him to the Flames I'll be soooooo pissed.
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Depends if Barzal would even want to play here.
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03-06-2020, 06:22 PM
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#138
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC
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Seems like business as usual.
Barzal isn't the first young player to receive some tough love from a coach, and he won't be the last. Sure, he might harbour some hard feelings and he might not be sure he wants to play for the Islanders long term, but coming out of entry level he has next to no leverage. When was the last time Lou Lamorillo came up short on a controlled asset?
I have a hard time believing he's in another jersey come next season. If he is, it is going to be at a heavy cost. ie: Seth Jones - Ryan Johanssen. If I'm Lou, I'm bypassing Gaudreau and targeting Tkachuck.
I don't see the Flames having the assets to pull this off.
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03-06-2020, 06:57 PM
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#139
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Northern Crater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOfan
Seems like business as usual.
Barzal isn't the first young player to receive some tough love from a coach, and he won't be the last. Sure, he might harbour some hard feelings and he might not be sure he wants to play for the Islanders long term, but coming out of entry level he has next to no leverage. When was the last time Lou Lamorillo came up short on a controlled asset?
I have a hard time believing he's in another jersey come next season. If he is, it is going to be at a heavy cost. ie: Seth Jones - Ryan Johanssen. If I'm Lou, I'm bypassing Gaudreau and targeting Tkachuck.
I don't see the Flames having the assets to pull this off.
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Oh man I wouldn't hesitate at trading valimaki dube and a 1st or 2. Barzal is awesome. You're probably right about the cost though.
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03-06-2020, 07:02 PM
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#140
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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NYI has about $13-14M in space next year, about 8 spots to fill including Barzal and a backup goalie. It might become a difficult negotiation if Barzal is unhappy.
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