Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

The bottom line is now this, we've seen what happens when we're reliant on Americans' as our primary market. With Keystone gone and the American's threatening line 5, we've put ourselves in a horrible position, both with our primary customer, and domestically.

So Trudeau has to put on his I love Alberta Oil T-Shirt and address that elephant in the room, though its probably too late because he gave way too much power to Quebec and BC and Ontario.

But Canada has to have a cross Canada pipeline, its that simple, and Canada has to build on its capacity to ship oil at both ends of the country.

We are in a position of zero energy security now. If the governor of Michigan enforces the shut down of Line 5 its going to devastate Ontario and Quebec, both in terms of employment and in terms of energy costs.

Someone above said the American public didn't want Keystone, I saw a survey up yesterday that 68% of American's surveyed approved of Keystone.

I've been saying it for years, but we need to increase our international markets in everything and not rely on the americans, they're not our friends, and we're their ally of convenience. With a stroke of a pen Biden can devastate a lot of business sectors in Canada in the name of America first. We can't prevent him from doing that now, but we have to build towards that future.


Oh and Kenney is dumb talking about things like Trade Sanctions. At the same time, Trudeau giving up without a fight verbally after boasting of breaking the law for SNC for Canadian jobs and the life or death struggle in aluminum or Steel is just a bad message. He has to ask for compensation tomorrow. He has to make it clear that the American elephant just stepped on a loyal allies testicles yesterday.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Victory laps!? I’m devastated. It directly financially impacts countless people I care about.

I’m using it as an example to express disappointment in government after government. An obviously self deprecating example at that. Did you bother to read it? Certainly not bragging, Jesus.

I read it and that's how it came off to me, so sorry if I mischaracterized your thoughts. I guess when you said:

When I was in high school I told my dad, and friends, outright that I wasn’t going to follow in his footsteps. I recall saying “there is no way the industry will be the same when I’m mid career age”. That was 21 years ago.

Me, the guy who barely passed high school. I, who then went back to improve my highschool classes and barely passed that (and failed one). Because, I’m not an overly intelligent individual. That’s how ####ing obvious this has been for 20+ years. But no, everyone I’ve ever known who works in the industry is hard against any change, and throws money around like they’re in a rap video. People who’s job it is to ensure money is flowing in the province either ignored the obvious, or straight up couldn’t understand that things would change.

It came across as "I told you so" and didn't really imply any empathy for people today.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Slava

I read it and that's how it came off to me, so sorry if I mischaracterized your thoughts. I guess when you said:



It came across as "I told you so" and didn't really imply any empathy for people today.

Specifically mentioned “governments” throughout and “people who’s job is it to ensure money is flowing in the province” refers to governments. I’m bitching about AB government after government. I opened with it, used it throughout, and closed with it.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The bottom line is now this, we've seen what happens when we're reliant on Americans' as our primary market. With Keystone gone and the American's threatening line 5, we've put ourselves in a horrible position, both with our primary customer, and domestically.

So Trudeau has to put on his I love Alberta Oil T-Shirt and address that elephant in the room, though its probably too late because he gave way too much power to Quebec and BC and Ontario.

But Canada has to have a cross Canada pipeline, its that simple, and Canada has to build on its capacity to ship oil at both ends of the country.

We are in a position of zero energy security now. If the governor of Michigan enforces the shut down of Line 5 its going to devastate Ontario and Quebec, both in terms of employment and in terms of energy costs.

Someone above said the American public didn't want Keystone, I saw a survey up yesterday that 68% of American's surveyed approved of Keystone.

I've been saying it for years, but we need to increase our international markets in everything and not rely on the americans, they're not our friends, and we're their ally of convenience. With a stroke of a pen Biden can devastate a lot of business sectors in Canada in the name of America first. We can't prevent him from doing that now, but we have to build towards that future.


Oh and Kenney is dumb talking about things like Trade Sanctions. At the same time, Trudeau giving up without a fight verbally after boasting of breaking the law for SNC for Canadian jobs and the life or death struggle in aluminum or Steel is just a bad message. He has to ask for compensation tomorrow. He has to make it clear that the American elephant just stepped on a loyal allies testicles yesterday.

We need a National Energy Program. It is unfortunately destined to come from a Trudeau. The original one failed in that it set ridiculous price caps on the oil that were predatory to the development of our Province, but the basic tenants were very sound: 50+% Canadian Ownership, Canadian Federal support and interest, Transnational pipeline and energy security, Transnational oil jobs to ensure permanent public support, and Port access to global markets on both coasts. We threw out the baby with the bathwater when Mulroney scrapped it.

[CaptainCrunch]

The NEP was predatory in nature, and was designed to siphon funds from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec and it was devestating.


I'm am against any concept of the Federal Government nationalizing or running the Oil industry, if there's a national strategy that they want to affect that involves working with the O+G industry then fine. A sign of good faith is to build an energy corridor across this country.

[Nufy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If the governor of Michigan enforces the shut down of Line 5 its going to devastate Ontario and Quebec, both in terms of employment and in terms of energy costs.

Then and only then will JT take notice.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Second, Canadians lack the killer instinct the rest of the world has. We're like the middle child of a rich parent. We assume we're going to be taken care of because we're agreeable and because we have only known wealth in our lives. There is no doubt that fossil fuels will be phased out. It might be 10 years, it might be 100 years. Every single other producing nation is going to be trying to squeeze every last penny out of this, from the US, to Norway to Saudi and everyone in between. They also smell weakness, so they pick on Canada to camouflage their own efforts. Meanwhile, we are being "good citizens of the world" and refusing to support an income stream necessary to help us pay for the oncoming demographic nightmare when the baby boomers retire and die out with insufficient wealth to support their retirement. We also lack the motivation to fix what is now an insurmountable task to build projects. The quest for consensus and reconciliation means a lot of people's livelihoods (including FNs) are at risk now, and it didn't have to be this way.

This a million times over. The heart of this issue is that most people in Canada are too comfortable and live decent first world lives that when items like this come up they too easily shrug their shoulders and accept bad long term economic policy in exchange for 'de jour' platitudes and sentiment. We take prosperity for granted, largely because for the most part intra-generationally we didn't earn it as it was endowed upon us through plentiful natural resources and favored location adjacent to the world's largest economy. Trudeau 6 years ago said that he hoped that Canadians should be known for their 'Resourcefulness' rather than simply for their resources. Well by turning up our nose at our own resource endowment the younger generations are going to learn first hand what having to compete with the rest of the world without a leg up really means and we won't fair well, because there's an ingrained mediocrity in our business culture.

Canada personified is like that person at work that would rather be liked than successful and makes decisions through that lens.

[Bunk]

I agree that Canada needs to control its own destiny. There is a reason why federal governments are the approval authority for such infrastructure, not provinces. And the federal government needs to be stronger transactionally to say that there will be consequences for pure obstructionism.

On the flip side, Alberta needs to get more serious about its climate plans in conjunction with capacity expansion. I thought the NDP struck the right chord in this regard, the UCP not so much. Too many leaders dismiss these concerns too blithely and trade in a weird sort of climate denialism. A lot of people react in the same visceral manner to concerns about the impacts and risks of climate change in the way that most Albertans are reacting to coal mining on our eastern slopes. We dismiss this at our peril. I thought some people brought really good ideas on how to reduce emissions in conjunction with projects - including leveraging things like wind, co-gen, nuclear, etc, etc. That has to be front in centre in the discourse nationally. The perception is companies, our government, and a majority of citizens, just don't give a damn. That won't fly.

[flamesfever]

nm

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Nufy

Then and only then will JT take notice.

What do you mean? He doesn't just react when Ontario and Quebec are impacted does he?

CN rail strike

Nov 19 2019 Alberta government calls on Trudeau to put end to CN strike

https://calgaryherald.com/business/l...ress-cn-strike

Crickets.

Nov 25 2019, Quebec is running out of propane! Farmers are furious!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...-woe-1.5372690

Nov 26 2019 Trudeau scores big victory with negotiated end to CN rail strike.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cn-rail-strike


Rail blockades

Feb 14 Trudeau: Canada doesn't tell police what to do.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/cana...ades-1.4811999

Feb 20: Critical propane shortage in Quebec announced due to rail blockades

https://financialpost.com/news/econo...ation-supplies

Feb 21: Trudeau makes order that blockades must come down.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51577737

If this wasn't real life and people's livelihoods, this would be a great comic.

The Michigan line will be the one where Trudeau will be 'enough is enough' since Ontario and Quebec will be hit. He could care less about Keystone.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

We need someone like Lougheed who commands respect and has the balls to do something that jolts the Easter Bastards into reality.

And a Prime Minister with the balls to fight for the well being of Canada rather than pander for votes in Quebec.

[Bunk]

Scheer's inability overcome perhaps the most scandal-ridden incumbent Prime Minister in history was directly related to not enough voters thinking he had a credible climate change plan for Canada. Putting political capital on the line to build pipelines is going to necessarily have to come along with climate change-related action. To think otherwise is dreaming.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

And a Prime Minister with the balls to fight for the well being of Canada rather than pander for votes in Quebec.

Exactly. A Prime Minister who does the right thing without bringing politics into it.

The problem with the Liberals is everything is about politics. Its in their DNA.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Exactly. A Prime Minister who does the right thing without bringing politics into it.

The problem with the Liberals is everything is about politics. Its in their DNA.

LOLOLOL.

Yeah the Conservatives are some of the greatest Quebec panderers ever! Same with the NDP for that matter. Are you guys serious?

Scheer referred to Quebec as a nation several times throughout his speech, and presented a Conservative majority government as the only guarantee to ensure the province's interests get prioritized in Ottawa.

"When we talk about Quebec's powers, yes, you are masters in your own house. Masters of your culture," Scheer said.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ste...ties-1.5321846

Every party is exactly the same on this front because you cannot win without a share of Quebec.

It's almost inarguable that Trudeau (for all his faults) buying TransMountain was exactly the opposite of his political interest. He would have gained a lot more politically by not doing that.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Yeah, it's ugly but who gives a fata? It's not like I'm going to build a house overlooking that pit and let my kids swim at the bottom of the hole. Come to my shop in the foothills industrial park - it's ugly, too, and we use weird chemicals and products here as well. Anything you own that has been manufactured sources raw materials from ugly places and creates waste. Existing creates waste and damages natural ecosystems.

So we fata up like 20 square kilometers out of the 510 square kilometers of land there is on earth to give increase the quality of life for millions of people. BFD. This is barely a scratch in the surface of the planet.

You could use the same reasoning for shutting down lithium and cobalt mining that people are currently using for the coal mines in AB. Like literally copy and paste the arguement and it holds water.

[CaptainCrunch]

I guess one of the key questions is.


Last summer when Trump went after Aluminum the Canadian government enacted retaliatory tarrifs. There was no, we respect his decision, and we're moving on.


I would be interested in seeing the transcripts for the call between him and Biden tomorrow. If Trudeau brushes by Keystone, its going to be optically bad for him and he'll look inconsistent in terms of the whole, I'll never apologize for fighting for Canadian jobs line that he used with SNC.


This is going to be tricky, if he doesn't fight and just glosses by, its probably going to increase Western Alienation, especially after his fights for Steel, Aluminum and SNC jobs that directly effected Ontario and Quebec. He's also at risk of really pissing off the Indigenous investors who put nearly 800 million worth of investments.


Trudeau's in a tough spot, he's starting to take heat on the vaccinations procurement and on Keystone. Next weeks polling could be interesting.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely true that the prior generations completely squandered wealth (including the federal governments who were all too happy to accept the higher tax revenues from Alberta taxpayers with no foresight or support). It's also true that this is the first generation that will absolutely do worse than their parents.

What I don't agree with is this one dimensional view that all political parties seem to have. You can diversify and be a strong advocate for oil and gas, which is why the NDP were idiots for not advocating for energy, and the UCP are idiots for pulling back the subsidies/programs for tech and other industries that the NDP actually did right.

As an aside, my family made their money in O&G, and like you, I also saw the writing on the wall that the money just wouldn't be the same to sustain my career. One could say the same about law though. The money is still very good, but not even close to what firms were doing in the 1980s. We also don't have a massive gain on our principal residences to look forward to help fund our retirement and harvest tax free like the prior generations.

Biden is a jerk for what he did and despite the lipstick on the pig approach our government is taking, he is not a friend to Canada, he's as self interested as Trump, but in a smoother and more likable package. That said, he's very much a political creature, and you don't blame someone for acting in their nature when you should know better. You don't last nearly 50 years in politics if you aren't. I don't blame him, he has no obligation to us other than loyalty to an ally and honouring free trade, but that is barely worth the paper it is printed on nowadays. I blame the Liberals, and I also blame both Notley and Kenney (and Redford and Stelmach) for all being one dimensional rubes.

Canada has made two fatal mistakes in my view:

First, we made ourselves dependent on the Americans one too many times, and they know it. Why do us favours when they have a nice little reserve supply that they can "help us tap" if they need it, while winning support by vilifying it in the short term. Energy East was essential to confederation, whether the east sees it or not. Without it, we're simply too dependent on others.

Second, Canadians lack the killer instinct the rest of the world has. We're like the middle child of a rich parent. We assume we're going to be taken care of because we're agreeable and because we have only known wealth in our lives. There is no doubt that fossil fuels will be phased out. It might be 10 years, it might be 100 years. Every single other producing nation is going to be trying to squeeze every last penny out of this, from the US, to Norway to Saudi and everyone in between. They also smell weakness, so they pick on Canada to camouflage their own efforts. Meanwhile, we are being "good citizens of the world" and refusing to support an income stream necessary to help us pay for the oncoming demographic nightmare when the baby boomers retire and die out with insufficient wealth to support their retirement. We also lack the motivation to fix what is now an insurmountable task to build projects. The quest for consensus and reconciliation means a lot of people's livelihoods (including FNs) are at risk now, and it didn't have to be this way.

It's going to be a tough decade, that's for sure. We have a lot of desperate and hopeless people in this province, and likely soon, this country.

Canada is viewed quite highly where I live, also from an economic standpoint Canada is and can continue to do well coming out of Covid.

ESG investing is a huge trend for this year, and will be for this decade. Demographics are destiny. Millennials will be the economic driver these next 10yrs as they enter their prime earning years and they think with a green lens first. Carbon intensive industry will struggle.

Housing in Toronto and Vancouver has done well during Covid as high earners didn't lose jobs and interest rates have come down significantly. In fact this trend is being seen across a lot of developed economies as building approvals and mortgage applications have soared. Still lots of wealth to be made for primary residences.

It will be a tough decade for Alberta and specifically Calgary as it will lag the rest of the country for growth. Calgary's economy is approx 30% exposed directly to O&G and the Canadian dollar is rising in a tough price environment. That makes growth for the sector tough without pipeline externalities. There will be an O&G industry, just smaller, and they'll have to focus on profitability as well as work with reduced outside capital.

In summary don't expect help from the rest of the country in the coming years because they'll be doing well and won't want to change course...even Edmonton.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Bunk

LOLOLOL.

Yeah the Conservatives are some of the greatest Quebec panderers ever! Same with the NDP for that matter. Are you guys serious?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ste...ties-1.5321846

Every party is exactly the same on this front because you cannot win without a share of Quebec.

It's almost inarguable that Trudeau (for all his faults) buying TransMountain was exactly the opposite of his political interest. He would have gained a lot more politically by not doing that.

I don't disagree with this post per se, but Harper did win with nearly nothing at all in Quebec. 2011 Federal Election:

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

...You can diversify and be a strong advocate for oil and gas, which is why the NDP were idiots for not advocating for energy, and the UCP are idiots for pulling back the subsidies/programs for tech and other industries that the NDP actually did right. ...

I logged in purposely to thank you for this post. I wish more people with similar mindset choose to go to politics. But they don't.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

This a million times over. The heart of this issue is that most people in Canada are too comfortable and live decent first world lives that when items like this come up they too easily shrug their shoulders and accept bad long term economic policy in exchange for 'de jour' platitudes and sentiment. We take prosperity for granted, largely because for the most part intra-generationally we didn't earn it as it was endowed upon us through plentiful natural resources and favored location adjacent to the world's largest economy. Trudeau 6 years ago said that he hoped that Canadians should be known for their 'Resourcefulness' rather than simply for their resources. Well by turning up our nose at our own resource endowment the younger generations are going to learn first hand what having to compete with the rest of the world without a leg up really means and we won't fair well, because there's an ingrained mediocrity in our business culture.

Canada personified is like that person at work that would rather be liked than successful and makes decisions through that lens.

I always love your stuff Cowboy89.

I've heard this exact argument posed for other resource based nations. It always makes me think about economies like New Zealand, Singapore and Israel. They do quite well without natural resources. Canada has a lot of advantages. I don't see people rolling over if we didn't export resources anymore (in an extreme scenario), the brightest minds in the country would just develop other industries, like those smaller economies I mentioned.

Canadians are tougher and more respected than people that live in Canada give them credit for.