Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[burn_this_city]

If the results hold with a Republican Senate, the election has been reasonably good for the O&G industry.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If the results hold with a Republican Senate, the election has been reasonably good for the O&G industry.

True. Although if Biden actually banned fracking I’ve heard it reduces US output from 13 mbpd to something like 7mbpd which is massive. US would need to import oil again, and it would also drive the $/bbl up with that much lost production.

Even a Biden win with a democratic senate might play into Canada’s hands.

Theoretically

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

True. Although if Biden actually banned fracking I’ve heard it reduces US output from 13 mbpd to something like 7mbpd which is massive. US would need to import oil again, and it would also drive the $/bbl up with that much lost production.

Even a Biden win with a democratic senate might play into Canada’s hands.

Theoretically

Zero chance they ban fracking. More realistically they clamp down on flaring in the Permian and methane reduction regulations. Shale oil in the US will be impaired by massive decline rates and negative cashflow during the pandemic, their production will probably bottom around 10mbpd and struggle to hold that number without oil getting back to $50-60.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

True. Although if Biden actually banned fracking I’ve heard it reduces US output from 13 mbpd to something like 7mbpd which is massive. US would need to import oil again, and it would also drive the $/bbl up with that much lost production.

Even a Biden win with a democratic senate might play into Canada’s hands.

Theoretically

Less than 15% of fracking occurs on federal lands. It wouldn’t affect that much.

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Zero chance they ban fracking. More realistically they clamp down on flaring in the Permian and methane reduction regulations. Shale oil in the US will be impaired by massive decline rates and negative cashflow during the pandemic, their production will probably bottom around 10mbpd and struggle to hold that number without oil getting back to $50-60.

It's insane how much flaring and venting to atmosphere they do there. Literally burning money... and that's were some alternate technologies come in for conversion to usable fuel or energy sources. Thankfully our AER is all over excess flare/venting. Now if only other countries would also restrict or severely curtail their flare/venting too.
As Robin Williams once said, Canada’s location is the equivalent of a really nice apartment over a meth lab.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

It's insane how much flaring and venting to atmosphere they do there. Literally burning money... and that's were some alternate technologies come in for conversion to usable fuel or energy sources. Thankfully our AER is all over excess flare/venting. Now if only other countries would also restrict or severely curtail their flare/venting too.
As Robin Williams once said, Canada’s location is the equivalent of a really nice apartment over a meth lab.

They were flaring 750MM cubic feet a day in the Permian alone last year. Absolutely ridiculous.

[Azure]

Canada would gain if the US banned fracking on federal lands, no?

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by Azure

Canada would gain if the US banned fracking on federal lands, no?

Not that simple especially given the current political climate and their hellbent race to the bottom.

[Husky]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

True. Although if Biden actually banned fracking I’ve heard it reduces US output from 13 mbpd to something like 7mbpd which is massive. US would need to import oil again, and it would also drive the $/bbl up with that much lost production.

Even a Biden win with a democratic senate might play into Canada’s hands.

Theoretically

Correction US currently imports. They are a net consumer

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Husky

Correction US currently imports. They are a net consumer

No - actually, considering crude and petroleum products, they are a net exporter

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42735

[Mr.Coffee]

If the States bans fracking, you can bet your ass Canada will very very very strongly consider it too. The public pressure will be huge, and, it’ll be a huge problem for our country actually.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If the States bans fracking, you can bet your ass Canada will very very very strongly consider it too. The public pressure will be huge, and, it’ll be a huge problem for our country actually.

Feds don’t have the power here.

No federal land to ban fracking on like they can in the states. It’s not going to happen anyway.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Feds don’t have the power here.

No federal land to ban fracking on like they can in the states. It’s not going to happen anyway.

Probably not, but I wouldn’t put it past BC. But yeah I don’t think the States does it anyway. That would be insane and prices would skyrocket.

[Manhattanboy]

GM bringing back 1700 jobs to Oshawa, Ontario.

Yay. I guess.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If the States bans fracking, you can bet your ass Canada will very very very strongly consider it too. The public pressure will be huge, and, it’ll be a huge problem for our country actually.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Probably not, but I wouldn’t put it past BC. But yeah I don’t think the States does it anyway. That would be insane and prices would skyrocket.

That would mean the end of Canada's conventional O&G industry for the most part. I don't think even BC would be that stupid since it would effectively kill the LNG projects. I can see heavier regulation on water sourcing for these fracs but it would be foolish to ban fraccing altogether.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

GM bringing back 1700 jobs to Oshawa, Ontario.

Yay. I guess.

Is that not a good thing?

[Leondros]

Looking very bleak for the maritime oil and gas industry:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...pointment.html

All of those service companies are really going to take a beating and the downstream impact on the local economies will be severe. I believe the whole province with the exception of one riding were liberal voters.

[hixxes]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

GM bringing back 1700 jobs to Oshawa, Ontario.

Yay. I guess.

It's a big YAY! It's great news for the people of Oshawa and area.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Is that not a good thing?

Of course it is. For them. What have Trudeau and the unions been doing lately to bring 1700 oil patch jobs back to Alberta?

Sorry the answer but we bought TMX doers not cut it.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Of course it is. For them. What have Trudeau and the unions been doing lately to bring 1700 oil patch jobs back to Alberta?

Sorry the answer but we bought TMX doers not cut it.

I don’t recall Unions buying TMX.

What exactly are you expecting Unions to do for the patch? Honest question.

I’d argue that the overwhelming majority of Unions support O&G jobs, unfortunately their resources are limited and generally used to directly promote the interests of their members. It’s unfortunate that there isn’t a higher Union density(*real Unions) in the patch but I don’t think the Unions should be criticized for that, the ones who do represent workers in the patch certainly advocate for them, despite the current government’s best efforts to stop them from being able to do so. It’s also unfortunate that so many other Union resources are currently tied up in standing up to a government that wants to make it even more difficult for them to advocate for workers(including O&G) when they could otherwise be focusing on doing that while also promoting our O&G industry, as they have done in the past.