Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[Azure]

Is the EV $5-6k more?

To me if you are going for the EV that only needs to take you 20km average per day, it is much cheaper already, no?

If you want to buy a Tesla with a 350km range and tons of features, it is probably more than $5-6k more.

Tesla steals a lot of attention away from other EVs, but there absolutely seem to be EVs out there that can drive you 20-40km per day, and have a MUCH lower cost of ownership compared to a ICE.

[Fuzz]

Just curious, do you have examples? The only one I can think of is something like the Renault Zoe, but it's still $37k US. Unless you are talking about Changli.

[wireframe]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I think it's really hard to communicate to the buyer all the benefits of buying EV's, including total cost of ownership.

For example:

-Even in Alberta an EV is probably 1/4 (or better??) cheaper per KM for electricity vs gasoline. at 20,000 km per year that a grand or two depending on the vehicle
-Maintenance is waaaay cheaper as there's no Oil changes or any moving parts that need to be serviced. Add that up over the time of ownership and it'll be significant
-Average daily commute in Canada is under 20km. That means you wake up every morning with a "full tank". You only have to ever think about "filling up" if you are going on a longer drive or don't live in a place with access to an electrical outlet
-Electric Vehicles are more powerful, faster, durable, and fun. You simply cannot compare the torque and smooth operation of an electric vehicle vs a gas powered one.
-Health benefits are only now being studied to any extent, but there seems to be very large payoffs. The only caveat is that the emissions breathed from exhaust is usually other cars, not your own necessarily.


If an electric car is, say 5-6k more than an ICE car with similar features, it becomes cheaper anyways. That point is very soon, and up front cost will be cheaper. It's just a matter of when

You forgot depreciation. Electric vehicles should last many times longer than combustion vehicles. The battery would have to be replaced at some point. After that, a Tesla could comfortably last for 1 million km. Obviously, we haven't seen that yet because not enough time has passed but there are a few examples online of people putting a few hundred km on them. Having to buy three combustion cars instead of one electric is a very big price difference.

[Street Pharmacist]

It's unlikely the battery would need to be replaced before the car is shot on most of the new EVs. In fact, with some of the newer battery technology you could theoretically get 1 million miles before replacing

[Fuzz]

Maybe in Calfiornia, around here I can't see many vehicles surviving the punishment of rust for 1 million miles. And stuff just wears out. Seats, steering wheels, door handles, heating and cooling systems, suspension, electronics(like Tesla's entire display) still break...at some point it isn't worth fixing, and I'm not sure it's going to be all that much different with an EV. In 10-15 years so much will have changed that it probably won't be worth keeping alive.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CrunchBite

Man I want to do an electric vehicle, the Rivian R1S looks awesome to me and would work perfect for 95% of my driving.

But it starts at $95k and optioned the way I'd like it would be $110k.

For $110k I can buy a brand new loaded Bronco, fuel and maintenance for probably 15+years.

Maybe not an apples to apples comparison but it feels like electric has a long ways to go get competitive on price. At least in the SUV sphere?

I was looking at the Rivian too. But the bigger problem, IMO, is the fact that you have to wait a year. I feel like, in a year from now, there will be a lot more options available, so I am leery of making that commitment at this time.

Still waiting for a nice electric SUV to wow me enough to dust off the wallet.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I was looking at the Rivian too. But the bigger problem, IMO, is the fact that you have to wait a year. I feel like, in a year from now, there will be a lot more options available, so I am leery of making that commitment at this time.

Still waiting for a nice electric SUV to wow me enough to dust off the wallet.

I’m waiting to see the Fisker Ocean



https://www.caranddriver.com/fisker/ocean

[Fuzz]

I still can't tell if Fisker is going to be a real company making cars, or implode spectacularly.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Maybe in Calfiornia, around here I can't see many vehicles surviving the punishment of rust for 1 million miles. And stuff just wears out. Seats, steering wheels, door handles, heating and cooling systems, suspension, electronics(like Tesla's entire display) still break...at some point it isn't worth fixing, and I'm not sure it's going to be all that much different with an EV. In 10-15 years so much will have changed that it probably won't be worth keeping alive.

Yeah EV's are going to have similar life cycles current gasoline vehicles as body, chassis, suspension, steering components all break over time. A lot of the old beaters I owned in the past had willing engines but the rest of the vehicle was toast.

[zamler]

Difference I see is since maintenance costs are drastically lower you can spend that money on replacing wear items. As for body rot hard to say but EVs use aluminum alloy to save weight so in theory rust will be much less of a problem.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I’m waiting to see the Fisker Ocean



https://www.caranddriver.com/fisker/ocean

"We have a best in class interior, so let's eliminate as many windows as possible so the customer can focus on it"

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Maybe in Calfiornia, around here I can't see many vehicles surviving the punishment of rust for 1 million miles. And stuff just wears out. Seats, steering wheels, door handles, heating and cooling systems, suspension, electronics(like Tesla's entire display) still break...at some point it isn't worth fixing, and I'm not sure it's going to be all that much different with an EV. In 10-15 years so much will have changed that it probably won't be worth keeping alive.

we have a fleet of 19 vehicles. i am looking forward to door handles, steering, seats being the only things i have to worry about.

[gasman]

What happens when the New EV's become like smartphones and won't be taking updates 5-10 years down the road?

The vast majority of people don't drive their vehicles until their wheels fall off. Most people are switching vehicles before they have even completed their payments, so when you look at the vast majority of car buyers, a car theoretically lasting a million miles is irrelevant, and frankly bad business for car manufactures.

The economics will have to be on something more realistic like a 3-5year payback before you see real, actual market share going to Electric vehicles.

Barring any actual regulation that excludes the sale of ICE vehicles, I don't see Electric vehicles having much impact (exceeding 5% of global marketshare) within the next 10 years.

I did some quick math, assuming 15,000km/year, the savings of gas over electric might be $1500 - $2000/year in operating cost, considering 3 oil changes/year, and an ICE engine getting 12l/100Km, compared to an electric car getting 14kw-h/100km, with no maintenance.

Personally I wouldn't consider an Electric car unless, the price was less than $10k different based on these numbers, even then, that's break even, for the added hassle of not being able to fill up my car with another 600km of range in 5 minutes, so if i forget to plug in when I get home, I'm potentially stranded...

[Wormius]

I am hoping that there will be some basic EVs that don’t require “updates” or have anything that would limit functionality. Tesla’s are cool and all, but if somehow a hacker was able to disable vehicles or ransomware or Stuxnet them, that would be a pretty catastrophic.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by gasman

What happens when the New EV's become like smartphones and won't be taking updates 5-10 years down the road?

I would say that with the "critical mass" of EV car ownership, warranty support probably becomes far more robust; the market should be able to dictate this. Additionally, OS's that run on cloud platforms with a car simply being a terminal node, combined with possibly open-source development and API-dominated software used in conjunction with charging scheduling through EV/IoT networks, means that I think they wouldn't just simply "brick" a vehicle. It would become part of an ecosystem that works with its physical limitations.

Additionally, if automobile industry standards are such that efficiency and range thresholds are increased, the vehicle's OS is the easiest way to work with the parts of the car. As an example, Tesla’s 2020.4 update increased the range of their Model X cars from 328 miles (527km) to 351 miles (564 km), while their Model S versions saw an increase in range from 373 miles (600km) to 390 miles (627km). One day there may be regulation for standard minimums or competition-driven efficiency standards.

The only way I could see the drop happening is if the ownership model was such that a brand-dedicated owner of an EV can upgrade or switch fairly easily before the car is bricked. Subscription-based usage or low-barrier, on-demand refinancing could help the case.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by gasman

What happens when the New EV's become like smartphones and won't be taking updates 5-10 years down the road?

The vast majority of people don't drive their vehicles until their wheels fall off. Most people are switching vehicles before they have even completed their payments, so when you look at the vast majority of car buyers, a car theoretically lasting a million miles is irrelevant, and frankly bad business for car manufactures.

The economics will have to be on something more realistic like a 3-5year payback before you see real, actual market share going to Electric vehicles.

Barring any actual regulation that excludes the sale of ICE vehicles, I don't see Electric vehicles having much impact (exceeding 5% of global marketshare) within the next 10 years.

I did some quick math, assuming 15,000km/year, the savings of gas over electric might be $1500 - $2000/year in operating cost, considering 3 oil changes/year, and an ICE engine getting 12l/100Km, compared to an electric car getting 14kw-h/100km, with no maintenance.

Personally I wouldn't consider an Electric car unless, the price was less than $10k different based on these numbers, even then, that's break even, for the added hassle of not being able to fill up my car with another 600km of range in 5 minutes, so if i forget to plug in when I get home, I'm potentially stranded...

Doesn't sound very eviromentally friendly

[zamler]

Originally Posted by gasman

What happens when the New EV's become like smartphones and won't be taking updates 5-10 years down the road?

Tesla is still updating the 2013 Model S. But even if they stop that's much better than a petrol car that never gets an update unless there is a recall or safety issue. In that case you have to go to the dealer.

The vast majority of people don't drive their vehicles until their wheels fall off.

Many people would keep their cars longer if they could but they get too expensive to repair.

Most people are switching vehicles before they have even completed their payments, so when you look at the vast majority of car buyers, a car theoretically lasting a million miles is irrelevant, and frankly bad business for car manufactures.

So in conclusion a car that lasts much longer is bad. Odd that Toyota sells so many cars but is the most reliable how does that work?

[gasman]

Originally Posted by zamler

Many people would keep their cars longer if they could but they get too expensive to repair.

Disagree - people trade their vehicles in long before maintenance costs are an issue. People trade their vehicles in because they want a nice new car. All the software updates in the world, don't fix the doordings, fading paint, rubbed seats, salt damaged floor mats, and other little baubles in a fancy vehicle. If you think someone shelling out $70k+ for a new car is going to drive that thing for 10 years, I disagree as do the car manufactures.

Originally Posted by zamler

So in conclusion a car that lasts much longer is bad. Odd that Toyota sells so many cars but is the most reliable how does that work?

Cool - but that's more about marketing than a car lasting 1,000,000 miles. In reality the average age of a vehicle on the road in Canada is less than 10years. Cars from different brands don't really differ in longevity, very few are on the road past 300,000kms.

In fact from a google search the "most reliable" car out there in 2019, the Toyota Avalon had just 2.5% of its vehicles exceeding 300000kms.

And yes a car that lasts 1,000,000kms is bad for the auto industry because it means less vehicles that they sell.

I would love to have an electric car, but until the price to own them over the course of 3-5 years is comparable to ICE, I don't see a reason to purchase one.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by gasman

I would love to have an electric car, but until the price to own them over the course of 3-5 years is comparable to ICE, I don't see a reason to purchase one.

5 year cost of ownership on a Tesla Model 3 is lower than a Toyota Camry.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

5 year cost of ownership on a Tesla Model 3 is lower than a Toyota Camry.

Can you show the math on that, or provide a link? The cheapest Camry is ~26k. The cheapest model 3 is ~53k. I'm interested to see how the numbers play out on your assertion.