Let's talk about Cryptocurrencies

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Canadianman

I'm all for having a debate/discussion on the merits of cryptocurrency, but it might be worthwhile to educate yourself on blockchain, cryptocurrencies and bitcoin specifically before arguing that it is worthless.

I would agree with the caveat that the market value of Bitcoin right now has nothing to do with the potential use of blockchain or even cryptocurrencies, it is purely an investment at this point, not a currency, I am sure right now there are coke dealers trying to find other ways to pay for their blow because they dont want to use their bitcoin in case it goes up in value

[indes]

What are people's thoughts on XRP?

With Bank of France talking about using Ripple for a digital euro, could it take off?

I'm wondering if it's worth a small play in case they end up facilitating the digital euro, then possibly more currencies.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

So what is your prediction exactly?

this year?
10 years?

lets hear it...easy to say this won't happen and that won't happen. If I told you 70k a year ago you would have given me the same financial lecture. Seven years is pretty hard to call...100k this year though seems like a slam dunk.

Do you even own crypto? You tell me not to get emotional but have posted six times on this page.

As a professional money manager, I don't make predictions. I know it is a waste of time. Worse in fact - it is actually detrimental.

As an exercise to demonstrate, let's look at gold - it is currently $1720. What will it be in 10 years? NO ONE HAS ANY IDEA. But we do know that it generally acts as an inflation hedge, and if I estimate future inflation at 2.5% and use that, I come up with $2,200. Is that a reasonable estimate? Who knows? But at least it is based on a reasonable assumption. That is how we plan out investments for the future: we don't know - we can't know - so we make reasonable assumptions, and diversify. In the aggregate, this usually works out fairly well overall.

No one knows what the next 10 years will bring. Hell, no one knows what tomorrow will bring. And all current information is priced in. In 10 years, Bitcoin could be obsolete and worthless, or it could be a mainstream store of wealth. Or anything in between. But it is impossible to tell.

Anyone that thinks they know is simply fooling themselves. And that, in and of itself, is fine - knock yourself out. But selling the idea to others is where I take issue with it.

As a money manager, I don't like seeing people try to tell others that this or that investment is going to be some rocket ship. Hell, it's ridiculous even to predict something as simple as saying the market will correct in a month. Maybe it will, but even if it turns out that way, it was bad advice, because the people making the recommendation were talking out of their asses.

It is an old cliche, but it is absolutely true: greed and fear make rational investing virtually impossible. The moment emotions are involved, rational thought gets trumped - it is the kiss of death. I have watched countless people let greed and/or fear dictate their actions, and it almost never goes well. I try to share that knowledge with others, but it is human nature to have to learn the hard way.

Anyway, I have made my arguments, and tried to bring a little rationality to the conversation. I hope some of the people reading the thread think about things logically, and don't just buy into the hype.

Oh, and yes, I own some - it is currently a momentum play. I am attending the party, but staying very close to the door.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Canadianman

I'm all for having a debate/discussion on the merits of cryptocurrency, but it might be worthwhile to educate yourself on blockchain, cryptocurrencies and bitcoin specifically before arguing that it is worthless.

I don't see anyone arguing that it is worthless.

And isn't coming to this thread, by definition, a way to try and educate yourself?

[afc wimbledon]

There are a couple of things we can say for sure about Bitcoin, it isnt and cannot be a functional currency if it suffers from wild swings in value, the single defining feature of a useable currency is stability, they may go up or down a few points over a month or a year but wild rapid swings make long term contracts or pricing impossible, they force users to either use their saving rapidly if the value drops or hoard their money if it goes up making it unusable practically

I suspect that there will be a successful crypto currency on its way but it will be useless as an investment, it will have to have some method to expand and possibly contract in order to maintian stability, it will effectivly be fiat in nature, it will also have to not use power the way Bitcoin does as the power consumption of bit mining is absurdly high for its function, that's the second thing we can say for sure, Bitcoins power consumption is an immense problem for its survival.

The other thing that is certain is Bitcoins value right now isnt based on anything other than hope, it does not function as an investment aught to, shares in Boeing go up when people buy their planes, they go down when their planes crash or an order is cancelled, there is no causative event for bitcoin other than peoples hopes driving the price either up or down right now

[dino7c]

People can have their opinions...if you are going to openly mock predictions you should be willing to make your own though.

Pretty easy to say this won't happen and that won't happen without putting yourself out there. 14K was "peak bubble" according to this thread. All I see are billionaires and the world's largest financial institutions buying BTC...why? If the financial minds of CP can see Bitcoin failing so clearly why can't they?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't see anyone arguing that it is worthless.

And isn't coming to this thread, by definition, a way to try and educate yourself?

Plenty of people have said that...pogs, tulips, ect.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by dino7c

People can have their opinions...if you are going to openly mock predictions you should be willing to make your own though.

Pretty easy to say this won't happen and that won't happen without putting yourself out there. 14K was "peak bubble" according to this thread. All I see are billionaires and the world's largest financial institutions buying BTC...why? If the financial minds of CP can see Bicoin failing so clearly why can't they?

If someone continuously claimed it was going to be 30 degrees next week, why do others need to predict the weather in response? It'll be what it'll be. Hang on to your shorts.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

There are a couple of things we can say for sure about Bitcoin, it isnt and cannot be a functional currency if it suffers from wild swings in value, the single defining feature of a useable currency is stability, they may go up or down a few points over a month or a year but wild rapid swings make long term contracts or pricing impossible, they force users to either use their saving rapidly if the value drops or hoard their money if it goes up making it unusable practically

I suspect that there will be a successful crypto currency on its way but it will be useless as an investment, it will have to have some method to expand and possibly contract in order to maintian stability, it will effectivly be fiat in nature, it will also have to not use power the way Bitcoin does as the power consumption of bit mining is absurdly high for its function, that's the second thing we can say for sure, Bitcoins power consumption is an immense problem for its survival.

The other thing that is certain is Bitcoins value right now isnt based on anything other than hope, it does not function as an investment aught to, shares in Boeing go up when people buy their planes, they go down when their planes crash or an order is cancelled, there is no causative event for bitcoin other than peoples hopes driving the price either up or down right now

ETH is already gearing towards a pretty significant change to the fundamental way its transactions are processed. Miners are not too happy but fees should go down and this change will take small amounts of ETH out of circulation each transaction.

[dino7c]

ETH is the surest bet in crypto right now

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

If someone continuously claimed it was going to be 30 degrees next week, why do others need to predict the weather in response? It'll be what it'll be. Hang on to your shorts.

Did that someone already call the weather correct for the past 4 weeks? I might want to listen to that guy in a weather thread. I certainly wouldn't be saying it's impossible.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

People can have their opinions...if you are going to openly mock predictions you should be willing to make your own though.

Pretty easy to say this won't happen and that won't happen without putting yourself out there. 14K was "peak bubble" according to this thread. All I see are billionaires and the world's largest financial institutions buying BTC...why? If the financial minds of CP can see Bitcoin failing so clearly why can't they?

It's important to realize financial institutions aren't 'buying bitcoin' they are positioning themselves to facilitate and make money out of everyone else's purchases of Bitcoin, they don't care which way the market goes, they are making money on the movement

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

ETH is the surest bet in crypto right now

surest bet to do what though, be a good investment or become a stable currency that, like every other safe currency in the world neither goes up or down much in value?

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by indes

What are people's thoughts on XRP?

With Bank of France talking about using Ripple for a digital euro, could it take off?

It still has the SEC action against Ripple that has tempered its value during the latest bull run. It'll likely depend on how that settles out.



But XRP throughout its history has always been polarizing in the crypto community and capable of massive swings in value. In the 2017-2018 bull run, it often rivaled Ethereum for #2. This is its all-time high

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

It's important to realize financial institutions aren't 'buying bitcoin' they are positioning themselves to facilitate and make money out of everyone else's purchases of Bitcoin, they don't care which way the market goes, they are making money on the movement

These institutions who are planning on effectively being market makers are required to have a certain 'float' of BTC which is helping facilitate the increase in pricing. Sure they are not purchasing BTC for the sole reason of asset appreciation, but they are contributing. The more these institutions hold, the more relevant BTC comes as a medium for transacting. If BTC gets enough adoption and relevancy as a medium, this only increases demand on a finite supply.

ETFs on the other hand are purely there to hold physical BTC. The third Canadian ETF is opening this week or next. They truly are buying bitcoin for the purpose of holding.

Then you look at companies like MicroStrategy or Ruffer and they are also saying they are holding these assets. They are not transacting with them.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

surest bet to do what though, be a good investment or become a stable currency that, like every other safe currency in the world neither goes up or down much in value?

Like anything, including crypto there is a growth stage, a maturity stage and a decline stage. Any growth stage in any industry sees massive volatility while getting wide spread market share or adoption. Once mainstream adoption happens and we enter the maturity stage I believe everything should stabilize. Maybe not as much as a fiat currency given supply is more limited and thus cannot be controlled as much with traditional monetary policy, but it should stabilize nonetheless.

[dino7c]

What's so stable about fiat? 40% of all USD was printed in the last year. Have you guys been to the grocery store lately?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

surest bet to do what though, be a good investment or become a stable currency that, like every other safe currency in the world neither goes up or down much in value?

Surest bet to make the biggest profit in the next six months for an investor...likely to be the most used crypto in the future.

*This is all my opinion I am not a financial advisor

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

What's so stable about fiat? 40% of all USD was printed in the last year. Have you guys been to the grocery store lately?

this time last year the dollar was worth 1.35 US, a year later it is worth 1.25, in March 2016 it was worth about 1.26 that's incredibly stable, Canada has had an inflation rate of around 2% P/A for around 25 years so the grocery store is pretty stable too

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

this time last year the dollar was worth 1.35 US, a year later it is worth 1.25, in March 2016 it was worth about 1.26 that's incredibly stable, Canada has had an inflation rate of around 2% P/A for around 25 years so the grocery store is pretty stable too

You saying one fiat is stable against another?

I am saying the purchasing power of the dollar is going down.