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View Poll Results: What role do humans play in contributing to climate change?
Humans are the primary contributor to climate change 392 62.92%
Humans contribute to climate change, but not the main cause 163 26.16%
Not sure 37 5.94%
Climate change is a hoax 31 4.98%
Voters: 623. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-11-2019, 01:21 PM   #1461
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So this is an example of one of the issues we're going to have to reckon with in the coming years. The people of Tuvalu are rapidly losing their home and the islands will likely be gone within the next 10-15 years if sea levels continue to rise. It's a relatively small island and number of people, but it's still 11,000 people that will no longer have homes and essentially be stateless.

International law is currently ill-equipped to deal with this reality. There is nothing in any of the current refugee conventions that stipulate accommodations for climate refugees, which means that no country is under any obligation to accept these people when they're forced to flee their homes.

I'm aware the article is from May but Tuvalu has been bracing for this for several years now.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...climate-change
That is honestly awful. Gotta feel for people in that position or facing that kind of reality.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:25 PM   #1462
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That is honestly awful. Gotta feel for people in that position or facing that kind of reality.
It's doubly bad with all the anti-immigration rhetoric coming from the far-right in the developed world. These people could be absolutely screwed when the time comes to leave.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:27 PM   #1463
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Completely agree! Alberta has a lot to work with. They have a ton of engineers and capital they could turn into an innovation mecca. Alberta should be leading the charge in finding better ways to use the hydrocarbon molecule, not just pulling it out of the ground and shipping it to market. Some really great ideas have come out of Alberta recently, so maybe the commitment has begun?
I work for an oil company and have for a long time. I’m in a position with a small amount of influence into investment decisions, and I have been pushing for stuff like this. It takes time to change hearts and minds but in my experience people have been relatively open to it, but in fairness these are not easy decisions to make for executives. Capital is precious and shareholders demand returns, and these types of things are huge gambles. In my opinion, still worth it, but a lot of risk nonetheless. It’s easy to say no to stuff. Still worth pushing these ideas though, because if we ever make it work it could be huge.
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Old 10-11-2019, 02:00 PM   #1464
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That's kind of a misleading article. The atolls are getting larger because of sediment deposit. This means more sand is being deposited adding to the total area of the atoll, , which affects the length and width of the land, but not affecting the important elevation. The important factor that rising sea levels will affect is the sustainable land mass. All this means is there will be more beaches under water as the waters rise. It does not mean the land mass is rising to keep the sustainable resources (arid land and fresh water sources) safe. It just means that more sediment is piling up against the atoll.
But that's a big part of how atolls forms. And there are potential mechanisms for that sediment to maintain elevation. A new paper from the same team that found Tuvalu growing found in a simulation that:



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“Atoll islands do not sit inert on the reef, instead the gravel and sand they are made up of shifts on the reef itself so that the land changes in response to environmental conditions. Interestingly, the elevation of the atoll crest – the highest ground – mirrored the rise in sea levels which suggests sea level may be an important controlling factor on island elevation.”

https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/sea-...pacific-atolls
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:32 PM   #1465
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But that's a big part of how atolls forms. And there are potential mechanisms for that sediment to maintain elevation. A new paper from the same team that found Tuvalu growing found in a simulation that:

https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/sea-...pacific-atolls
Interesting stuff. It's the same research, just a different journal. It should also be mentioned that the method used to come up with these findings are a little unreliable. The researchers literally "eyeballed" their measurements of expansion of the islands using aerial photographs from 1971, then comparing those to satellite images from 2004 through 2015. To determine the expansion of they island they relied on what they perceived to be increases in shoreline vegetation to determine edge of the land.

"The edge of vegetation is widely used as a proxy for the shoreline within island change studies in atoll settings. The edge of vegetation is readily identifiable in all imagery, regardless of image colour and contrast and irrespective of environmental conditions such as glare and waves, all of which can impede the interpretation of subtidal and intertidal features such as the toe of beach. The edge of vegetation represents the vegetated core of the island and filters short-term noise associated with the interpretation of dynamic beach shorelines. Where 1971 shorelines are cloud-obscured, preventing the creation of a closed polygon, we use previously calculated areas for the vegetated edge of island."

Much of the "expansion" is a result of destruction of local reefs, which provides the sediment pile up on the beaches. What make this doubly bad is these reefs provide protection to the islands from the encroaching waves and ocean. This is covered in a competing bit of research focused on neighboring Kiribati and looks at the very things I mentioned (habitable and arid land along with fresh water resources becoming more scarce) and are discussed in this paper. But most importantly is the condition of the coral reefs.

https://www.nature.com/articles/526624a

"Around Tarawa, the coral reefs are in particularly poor shape, says Simon Donner, a climatologist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada, who has done diving surveys. “Coral cover is lower than you'd expect around the island,” he says. “That's the legacy of pollution, sewage mostly, and frequent bleaching events in the past 20 years.”

This research used a method much more reliable than Kench's. The Kench study relied on inconsistent photographic data while Hubbards relied on extensive physical core evidence and study of other atolls around the globe. This research was about viability and had a lot of data and research to fall back on.

"To help predict how corals may fare in the future, Dennis Hubbard, a geologist at Oberlin college in Ohio, and his colleagues have been peering into the past, amassing a database of sediment core samples obtained by drilling into limestone beneath coral reefs. With carbon dating, they can determine how quickly these reefs have grown: in yet-to-be-published work, they have found that more than half of the world's coral reefs grew more slowly over the past 10,000 years than sea levels are rising today. Extrapolating forward, those results suggest that only half of all atolls in existence today have a chance of keeping pace with rising seas under the best of conditions, he says. “Given that this was in a time with no human impact, we feel this is the most optimistic scenario possible.”

Not conclusive in any shape or fashion, but a little more meat on the bone so to speak. Hubbard even mentions Kench's research and counters it, recognizing how these islands are made where the sediment comes from.

"But Hubbard considers Kench's views shortsighted. “If you run out of reefs, you run out of sediment, and once you run out of sediment, you run out of islands,” he says. “A lot of this is a semantics issue, challenging when the reef island is going to be physically underwater. Those reef islands are going to be abandoned long before that because they are uninhabitable.”

Then there is the view from the people who live there.

"In an interview, [Kiribati President] Tong dismisses those who suggest that atolls are resilient to rising seas, saying that they have the luxury of “talking from the top of a mountain” and not putting their lives on the line. “These people are not living here. Their grandchildren will not be living here. If they believe that, let them come here,” he says, pounding his fist on a chair armrest for emphasis. “I'd rather plan for the worst and hope for the best.”

I think that all the research is fascinating as this is a geological problem that we normally don't live long enough to play out, but it is likely something we will be able to see in our life times, or at worst those of our children.

"Scientific understanding of atoll geology has sharpened since that earlier projection. Webb expects some remnants of Tarawa to remain a century or two from now, but probably no more than some wave-washed gravel banks — and by that point, everyone will have long gone.

The geological evidence does not get to the key human question about the destiny of these Pacific islanders. That leaves Webb facing a difficult question — one he hears from his own Kiribati-born teenagers. “How long do we have?” they ask. To that, he replies: “Your children will not grow old in the atolls.”


Like I said, fascinating stuff. Thanks for the rabbit hole.
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Old 10-13-2019, 08:31 AM   #1466
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Oh good, she's coming to Alberta. Please, tell us how horrible we are.


https://twitter.com/user/status/1183213199232884736
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Old 10-13-2019, 08:57 AM   #1467
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Honestly, she's one of the few people that, when seeing that Alberta isn't a raging cesspool of filth, would actually tell that to her followers. I'm curious about how she responds to actually seeing the province.
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Old 10-13-2019, 09:42 AM   #1468
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Honestly, she's one of the few people that, when seeing that Alberta isn't a raging cesspool of filth, would actually tell that to her followers. I'm curious about how she responds to actually seeing the province.

It will depend on who is acting as tourist guide-
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Old 10-13-2019, 09:44 AM   #1469
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Hopefully she can visit Saudi Arabia next and then decide who she'd rather have as the world's oil supplier.
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Old 10-13-2019, 10:57 AM   #1470
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Honestly, she's one of the few people that, when seeing that Alberta isn't a raging cesspool of filth, would actually tell that to her followers. I'm curious about how she responds to actually seeing the province.
Really? Do you honestly believe that she’s coming to Alberta to see it’s beauty? Really? The only people that would say that are the ones planning on showing her the oil sands.

By the way you should read some of the stuff she’s said. “I want you to feel the fear i feel everyday, i don’t want your hope, i want you to panic, your house is on fire”.

Does that sound like someone who is ok? Her parents need to help her. Let her be a kid, not try to fuel her anger with adult problems. She should be hanging out with friends. This isn’t good for her but it helps the environmentalist narrative so they will use her.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:06 AM   #1471
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Honestly, she's one of the few people that, when seeing that Alberta isn't a raging cesspool of filth, would actually tell that to her followers. I'm curious about how she responds to actually seeing the province.
I think her handlers are intentionally going to end up at the oil sands with one of the worst looking mines as her backdrop the week leading up to our election to try and swing votes. She's a political device and will be used as such.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:07 AM   #1472
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Really? Do you honestly believe that she’s coming to Alberta to see it’s beauty? Really? The only people that would say that are the ones planning on showing her the oil sands.

By the way you should read some of the stuff she’s said. “I want you to feel the fear i feel everyday, i don’t want your hope, i want you to panic, your house is on fire”.

Does that sound like someone who is ok? Her parents need to help her. Let her be a kid, not try to fuel her anger with adult problems. She should be hanging out with friends. This isn’t good for her but it helps the environmentalist narrative so they will use her.
Help her how? Getting her to bury her head in the sand like the rest of us? Maybe she'd rather deal with adult problems now before they get worse when she's actually an adult.

I know you think climate change is bull#### but she's not dumb so you're not going to convince her it's not without hard facts. So bring some that will actually shut her up or quit complaining about her.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:09 AM   #1473
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I think her handlers are intentionally going to end up at the oil sands with one of the worst looking mines as her backdrop the week leading up to our election to try and swing votes. She's a political device and will be used as such.
That's true, so she should be invited with open arms and shown facilities that are helping the problem. You have any in mind?
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:12 AM   #1474
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That's true, so she should be invited with open arms and shown facilities that are helping the problem. You have any in mind?
How about the cogen facility in east village in Calgary?
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:16 AM   #1475
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How about the cogen facility in east village in Calgary?
Sure. And the Blackspring Ridge wind farm.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:19 AM   #1476
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Expect us to be trashed as the epicentre of the climate crisis. No math will be involved, but the rhetoric will have us ending life on this planet. She will fly over Suncor or CNRL mine, shed a tear and cast us with the damned.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:47 AM   #1477
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If she gets a tour of the oil sands like I got there is hope but I doubt that will happen. I expect she’ll unfairly condemn Alberta. She should follow it up with a visit to the middle-east facilities to compare.
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Old 10-13-2019, 11:56 AM   #1478
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If she gets a tour of the oil sands like I got there is hope but I doubt that will happen. I expect she’ll unfairly condemn Alberta. She should follow it up with a visit to the middle-east facilities to compare.
Not the facilities - they're blessed with much simpler production than we are. Show her their society, theirs laws and customs, how they treat LGBTQ, and how they treat women.
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Old 10-13-2019, 12:03 PM   #1479
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The little princess lost out on the Nobel prize so she will be in a vindictive mood.
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Old 10-13-2019, 12:09 PM   #1480
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What does the Saudi human rights record, deplorable as it is, have to do with how little we've done to address climate change?

Can we not set the bar a little bit higher than being better than SA?
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