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Old 01-14-2022, 02:16 PM   #1941
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People who still think theyíre going to avoid getting covid-19 are about as delusional as those taking ivermectin. Your wishful thinking is not supported by science.
Does science not tell us the boosters are somewhat effective?
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:19 PM   #1942
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Those early models were using virulence equivalent to Delta which we know now is lower. So that would affect hospitalizations but not rate of infections but I do agree with your genera point.
True, but I believe even their pessimistic scenario overestimated the vaccine efficacy against hospitalization, which covers a lot of that gap between modeled and actual virulence.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:20 PM   #1943
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The blood samples were used to measure how effectively each vaccine induces production of protective immunity in the form of antibodies against the Omicron pseudovirus, as well as the Delta and wild type viruses. The results were striking. “We detected very little neutralization of the Omicron variant pseudovirus when we used samples taken from people who were recently vaccinated with two doses of mRNA vaccine or one dose of Johnson & Johnson,” says Balazs. “But individuals who received three doses of mRNA vaccine had very significant neutralization against the Omicron variant.”
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto...r-study-finds/

So ya, why are we all "guaranteed" to get it?
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:31 PM   #1944
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https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto...r-study-finds/

So ya, why are we all "guaranteed" to get it?
What you donít seem to be recognizing is covid-19 isnít going to just fade away. Thereís going to be community spread through the spring, then resurgence again in the fall and next winter. And the following year. And the year after that. We probably wonít see waves cresting this high again (though you never know with variants), but it will he out there. Endemic.

So a caveat then: Unless you plan to isolate every year from November to April, indefinitely, you are almost certain to get covid-19 at some point.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:33 PM   #1945
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People who still think theyíre going to avoid getting covid-19 are about as delusional as those taking ivermectin. Your wishful thinking is not supported by science.
Depends on who you're talking about. Someone who is is at-risk and is judicious about being vaccinated regularly and who takes precautions during periods of high infections will stand a decent chance of not getting COVID if we don't regularly see immune escape variants. Vaccine effectiveness against Delta was extremely high after a booster, so there's no reason to think that the same thing can't be achieved with Omicron or other variants.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:34 PM   #1946
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What you don’t seem to be recognizing is covid-19 isn’t going to just fade away. There’s going to be community spread through the spring, then resurgence again in the fall and next winter. And the following year. And the year after that. We probably won’t see waves cresting this high again (though you never know with variants), but it will he out there. Endemic.

So a caveat then: Unless you plan to isolate every year from November to April, indefinitely, you are almost certain to get covid-19 at some point.
In the long run.. you are probably more likely than not to get it - of course with cavaets around improving the vaccines, etc - sure. But the idea everyone is going to get Omicron in the next 2-3 months is not true and also the latest dose of hopium that the sick of the pandemic are peddling as the reason 17 why this ends now.

Last edited by PeteMoss; 01-14-2022 at 02:36 PM.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:48 PM   #1947
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You are talking about getting it, but exposure does not mean you are going to be symptomatic.

The correct thing to say is "We are all going to be exposed" instead of "we are all going to get it".
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:50 PM   #1948
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What you donít seem to be recognizing is covid-19 isnít going to just fade away. Thereís going to be community spread through the spring, then resurgence again in the fall and next winter. And the following year. And the year after that. We probably wonít see waves cresting this high again (though you never know with variants), but it will he out there. Endemic.

So a caveat then: Unless you plan to isolate every year from November to April, indefinitely, you are almost certain to get covid-19 at some point.
So we will get better boosters as time goes on, and the virus may also mutate itself away. There are so many variables that saying anything with certainty at this point, considering what we have been through, is foolhardy.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:56 PM   #1949
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We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.

It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:02 PM   #1950
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We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.

It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
We don't have vaccines for the common cold, so you can't compare it that way.


This is not in any way guaranteed to happen. It's a myth.



https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunk...ry?id=82052581
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:04 PM   #1951
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We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.
But there's no vaccine that prevents colds. If there was, it would probably be possible to avoid that too, assuming a person was willing to be vaccinated every 6 months and take precautions. Not something your average person will likely go through, but the elderly or at-risk population? They probably will.

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It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
There's no way of knowing that. Mutations are completely random and there's no pressure for COVID to become less serious (or more serious). A more transmissible variant will tend to outcompete a less transmissible one (but not always if the less transmissible one is more effective at evading immunity). But COVID simply isn't deadly enough for its severity to really impact its transmission; whether it's .1% of infections of 2% of infections that result in a fatality, it's not going to change its ability to spread. And by the time anyone's dying from COVID, they've normally already been infected and able to spread it for weeks already.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:05 PM   #1952
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Originally Posted by Hack&Lube View Post
We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.

It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
The idea viruses always evolve to be milder is another misconception. Covid in its current form last long enough in the human body to transmit fine. It already very likely evolved from 1st first forms to Delta which is very likely more deadly.

EDIT: or what opendoor said better than I did
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:13 PM   #1953
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And a person's age. It's plausible that some older people who are willing and able to get regular vaccinations for the rest of their lives won't ever get it. But anyone younger? Yeah, I'd say it's a pretty inevitable with waning immunity.

That said, who knows. I think predicting anything about the pandemic more than a few months ahead of time is just wild guesses. It took 2 years for an immune escape variant to come about; with the massive increase in infections we're seeing with Omicron, it might not even take that long to happen again. Or it might not happen at all.
Does this not seem to be following a similar path to the Spanish flu? I thought I read that the 4th wave was similar in that it was infectious but not causing severe sickness, which is what killed off the pandemic.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:18 PM   #1954
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You are talking about getting it, but exposure does not mean you are going to be symptomatic.

The correct thing to say is "We are all going to be exposed" instead of "we are all going to get it".
But does exposure mean infected even if not symptomatic?

Because if it does, then it means you are immune to it. Though perhaps you are spreading it.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:27 PM   #1955
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Does this not seem to be following a similar path to the Spanish flu? I thought I read that the 4th wave was similar in that it was infectious but not causing severe sickness, which is what killed off the pandemic.
Sort of, but influenza is a bit different because it mutates much more rapidly and significantly than coronaviruses do. Which is a bad thing most of the time (since immunity from prior infections is much less effective), but for severe variants like the Spanish Flu, it was actually a good thing.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:52 PM   #1956
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But does exposure mean infected even if not symptomatic?

Because if it does, then it means you are immune to it. Though perhaps you are spreading it.
No, they're two different things. An exposure is when you encounter the virus. Maybe none of it actually ends up in your body. Or maybe a tiny bit of it does and your body recognizes and kills off the few hundred virions that made it in without breaking a sweat. Or maybe it doesn't and you become infected.

An infection is when those few hundred virions get into your body, attach to your cells, and significantly replicate. At that point, you potentially become infectious (because you now have billions of virions in your body) and you have to do a lot more work to fight it off. That's when you generate a full-fledged immune response that is capable of fighting off the infection and that will boost your antibodies.

Vaccinated or previously infected people will tend to generate an effective response sooner (since their body recognizes what the virus is and how to defeat it rather than starting from scratch), so that's why the severity is generally lower. But when someone with a high level of neutralizing antibodies is exposed, they will normally neutralize the small amount of virus that gets into their body, preventing infection without any real immune response.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:54 PM   #1957
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We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.

It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
Sorry but that will never happen. The things that make COVID dangerous are what also make it so good at infecting people.
This Forbes multipart article gives a good rundown on what make COVID so dangerous. A quick summary is that COVID is extremely adept at avoiding triggering your immune system defenses and warnings. It specifically blocks a pathway called the MHC-I which a system in which infected cells transport viral proteins towards the surface. When an activated CD8+ cell detect a viral protein that matches the one it has it starts releasing chemical they will kill the infected cell. With this system suppressed or neutralized your immune system can't rely on this targeted system to clear the infection and instead requires systems that will result in increased collateral damage towards uninfected cells.
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Old 01-14-2022, 04:13 PM   #1958
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So a caveat then: Unless you plan to isolate every year from November to April, indefinitely, you are almost certain to get covid-19 at some point.
Not me. I'll never get it. Duncan Keith gave me his regimen.
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Old 01-14-2022, 04:14 PM   #1959
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Does science not tell us the boosters are somewhat effective?
Those boosters are not stopping the spread. Itís wishful thinking. They might reduce severity, and of course thatís something, but itís still spreading.

And truthfully, I know itís anecdotal and YMMV, but I got Covid with no booster, my got Covid with the booster. We were both just as sick as one another and seem to have had virtually the same experience with it overall. Was the booster effective for her? No idea, but in practice it seems to have been negligible.
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Old 01-14-2022, 04:26 PM   #1960
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We're all going to get it because it is going to become as prevalent as the common cold which is itself a type of coronavirus. The hope is that the natural evolution of the virus is that it over time it will be similar to the common cold or seasonal flu.

It will become more highly transmissible but also milder in symptoms and mortality. A virus that quickly kills its host is less likely to propagate than a mutation of it that does not kill its host and can spread itself more effectively.
Colds are 85% rhinoviruses. SARS and MERS are coronaviruses, are we all going to get those too?

Is COVID19 going to end up like the few common cold coronaviruses or like SARS.. who knows?
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