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Old 01-14-2022, 11:56 AM   #1921
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Why would 100% of the population get exposed? That never happens with any disease (unless you're talking about over years and years). The UK is already seeing cases decline after an estimated ~25-30% attack rate for Omicron (likely because of high booster uptake).
That's wrong, unless you don't want to round 99.9% to 100%. It's been well documented.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/co...hits-greenland

When measles was introduced to southern Greenland, an area where the disease had not been endemic previously, it spread rapidly: only five people from an unprotected population of 4,262 escaped the disease, so that it had a final attack rate of 99.9%

Omicron is more infectious then the measles. As we know most cases in the UK are likely severely underreported due to symptoms, as they are in the rest of the world with Omicron.

Everyone will get Omicron (it was also true with Delta over time), but already built immunity from previous infections or vaccines may prevent symptoms from showing. Herd immunity was a pipe dream back when the original strand was going that died out when Delta came in and infections in the vaccinated were still occuring.

Omicron is the best thing that could have ever happened to get us to the endemic phase.

Last edited by Firebot; 01-14-2022 at 12:00 PM.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:59 AM   #1922
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That's wrong, unless you don't want to round 99.9% to 100%. It's been well documented.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/co...hits-greenland

When measles was introduced to southern Greenland, an area where the disease had not been endemic previously, it spread rapidly: only five people from an unprotected population of 4,262 escaped the disease, so that it had a final attack rate of 99.9%

Omicron is more infectious then the measles. As we know most cases in the UK are likely severely underreported due to symptoms, as they are in the rest of the world with Omicron.

Everyone will get Omicron (it was also true with Delta over time), but already built immunity from previous infections or vaccines may prevent symptoms from showing. Herd immunity was a pipe dream back when the original strand was going that died out when Delta came in.

Omicron is the best thing that could have ever happened to get us to the endemic phase.

That's also a population with zero exposure or vaccinations... Not comparable to our current situation. If Omicron was the first wave then you may have a chance at that
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:08 PM   #1923
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Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
That's wrong, unless you don't want to round 99.9% to 100%. It's been well documented.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/co...hits-greenland

When measles was introduced to southern Greenland, an area where the disease had not been endemic previously, it spread rapidly: only five people from an unprotected population of 4,262 escaped the disease, so that it had a final attack rate of 99.9%
Yes, a 4K population in part of Greenland that's completely immunologically naive to a virus with an R0 of 18 is definitely a good correlate for a country of millions with varying levels of immunity from vaccinations and prior infections for a virus that is far less infectious.
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Omicron is more infectious then the measles.
LOL, what's your source on that?
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As we know most cases in the UK are likely severely underreported due to symptoms, as they are in the rest of the world with Omicron.
I can assure you that UK attack rate estimates take that into account. Do you honestly think that their doctors and immunologists don't realize that there are unreported infections?
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:09 PM   #1924
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Anecdotal? The UK has probably the best data in the world through the pandemic. Anyway, it's from today's Technical Briefing (pages 22-25):

https://assets.publishing.service.go...anuary2022.pdf

That would tend to depress vaccine effectiveness numbers, not raise them.

Effectiveness
of booster doses of Pfizer and Moderna are shown. In all periods, effectiveness was lower for
Omicron compared to Delta. Among those who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca,
effectiveness dropped from 45to50% to almostno effect against Omicron from 20 weeks after
the second dose. Among those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness
dropped from around 65to70% down to around 10% by 20 weeks after the 2nd dose.Two to4
weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness ranged from around 65to75%, dropping to
55to65% at 5to9 weeks and 45to50% from 10+ weeks after the booster.



50% seems to be a poor number to me. It perspective I guess.



Anecdotal in causation, Is it the vaccine booster causing a depression in cases or is it a outside condition. Its anecdotal at this point.
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:12 PM   #1925
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Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund View Post
Effectiveness
of booster doses of Pfizer and Moderna are shown. In all periods, effectiveness was lower for
Omicron compared to Delta. Among those who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca,
effectiveness dropped from 45to50% to almostno effect against Omicron from 20 weeks after
the second dose. Among those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness
dropped from around 65to70% down to around 10% by 20 weeks after the 2nd dose.Two to4
weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness ranged from around 65to75%, dropping to
55to65% at 5to9 weeks and 45to50% from 10+ weeks after the booster.


50% seems to be a poor number to me. It perspective I guess.
Even at 50% at 10+ weeks, that's significantly better than nothing.

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Anecdotal in causation, Is it the vaccine booster causing a depression in cases or is it a outside condition. Its anecdotal at this point.
I suppose. But over 50% of their population has a recent booster which has demonstrated to offer a fairly significant reduction in infections for a period of time. It's not a reach to think that that's a significant part of the reason they're seeing a drop in infections where countries with lower booster uptake aren't.

Last edited by opendoor; 01-14-2022 at 12:39 PM. Reason: Misread
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:55 PM   #1926
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Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund View Post
Effectiveness
of booster doses of Pfizer and Moderna are shown. In all periods, effectiveness was lower for
Omicron compared to Delta. Among those who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca,
effectiveness dropped from 45to50% to almostno effect against Omicron from 20 weeks after
the second dose. Among those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness
dropped from around 65to70% down to around 10% by 20 weeks after the 2nd dose.Two to4
weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness ranged from around 65to75%, dropping to
55to65% at 5to9 weeks and 45to50% from 10+ weeks after the booster.



50% seems to be a poor number to me. It perspective I guess.



Anecdotal in causation, Is it the vaccine booster causing a depression in cases or is it a outside condition. Its anecdotal at this point.
On the other hand 50% was the low target when the vaccines were first created.
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:58 PM   #1927
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Yes, a 4K population in part of Greenland that's completely immunologically naive to a virus with an R0 of 18 is definitely a good correlate for a country of millions with varying levels of immunity from vaccinations and prior infections for a virus that is far less infectious.
LOL, what's your source on that?
I can assure you that UK attack rate estimates take that into account. Do you honestly think that their doctors and immunologists don't realize that there are unreported infections?
"LOL"? Really? We are starting to respond to statements with "LOL" instead of checking first?

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2022/...ever-recorded/

Quote:
“With current conditions, a simple exponential growth model would still show 14 million people infected in 60 days from a single case, compared to 760,000 with measles in a population with no specific defenses,” Bhattacharyya warned.
When medical experts talk of measles level of contagious it's always talking with no specific defenses. Why some of you are trying to put in asterix on the contagiousness with Omicron I don't understand your angle.

And prior infections don't matter anymore? Prior infection = you had covid.

People are being deliberately obtuse. Vaccinations is not preventing infection from Omicron right with 30% efficacy for 2 doses. That simply isn't enough to stop the population from getting it over time considering the exposure level and sheer contagiousness. You may have been infected without knowing it due to very mild symptoms but you will still be infected.

30% would be below the approved vaccine level for WHO.

And we have near 100% vaccine efficacy with measles infection while with Omicron we are at barely 30% with 2 doses.

You, I, all of us are getting covid if you haven't already gotten it (pick your variant of choice). For most of us, Omicron will be our first covid infection.

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Old 01-14-2022, 01:18 PM   #1928
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Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
"LOL"? Really? We are starting to respond to statements with "LOL" instead of checking first?

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2022/...ever-recorded/

When medical experts talk of measles level of contagious it's always talking with no specific defenses. Why some of you are trying to put in asterix on the contagiousness with Omicron I don't understand your angle.
Infectiousness is based on R0, not generation time. So sure, I guess you could argue that Omicron's R0 of 6 would infect more people in a given (short) time period because of its shorter generation time, but in everything that matters and everything we're talking about (i.e. how many people will be infected before a peak, how many will be infected before Rt drops below 1, expected attack rate, etc.) and for what's relevant to the example you provided, measles is significantly more infectious due to its R0 of 16-18.

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And prior infections don't matter anymore? Prior infection = you had covid.

People are being deliberately obtuse. Vaccinations is not preventing infection from Omicron right with 30% efficacy for 2 doses. That simply isn't enough to stop the population from getting it over time considering the exposure level and sheer contagiousness. You may have been infected without knowing it due to very mild symptoms but you will still be infected.
30% would be below the approved vaccine level for WHO.

And we have near 100% vaccine efficacy with measles infection while with Omicron we are at barely 30% with 2 doses.

Measles is not spreading like wildfire as we have herd immunity with vaccines. Omicron is spreading like wildfire as we do not have herd immunity and are not getting efficient immunity through vaccines.

You, I, all of us are getting covid if you haven't already gotten it (pick your variant of choice). For most of us, Omicron will be our first covid infection.
We're not talking about over a long period of time. People are trying to argue that we'll see insanely high attack rates in a matter of months. That's likely not going to happen because of varying levels of immunity and just basic epidemiology.

Something like 65% of adults in the UK have a 3rd dose which is quite effective for the time being. If you don't think that that is playing a significant role in how their wave is shaping up, then I don't know what to say.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:18 PM   #1929
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Originally Posted by Firebot View Post
"LOL"? Really? We are starting to respond to statements with "LOL" instead of checking first?

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2022/...ever-recorded/



When medical experts talk of measles level of contagious it's always talking with no specific defenses. Why some of you are trying to put in asterix on the contagiousness with Omicron I don't understand your angle.

And prior infections don't matter anymore? Prior infection = you had covid.

People are being deliberately obtuse. Vaccinations is not preventing infection from Omicron right with 30% efficacy for 2 doses. That simply isn't enough to stop the population from getting it over time considering the exposure level and sheer contagiousness. You may have been infected without knowing it due to very mild symptoms but you will still be infected.

30% would be below the approved vaccine level for WHO.

And we have near 100% vaccine efficacy with measles infection while with Omicron we are at barely 30% with 2 doses.

You, I, all of us are getting covid if you haven't already gotten it (pick your variant of choice). For most of us, Omicron will be our first covid infection.
Omicron being more infectious than measles certainly isn't consensus at this point. Most experts have it below measles, and a simple google search shows that so far, your article is one of the only sources stating the opposite.

It may end up being true, but as of now it isn't. How much of Omicron spread is behaviour based as well? A lot of people don't take it seriously, unlike the measles.

If covid caused people to break out into a crazy rash that caused scarring, etc, there would be far fewer against taking chances with this disease.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:19 PM   #1930
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Infectiousness is based on R0, not generation time. So sure, I guess you could argue that Omicron's R0 of 6 would infect more people in a given (short) time period because of its shorter generation time, but in everything that matters and everything we're talking about (i.e. how many people will be infected before a peak, how many will be infected before Rt drops below 1, expected attack rate, etc.) and for what's relevant to the example you provided, measles is significantly more infectious due to its R0 of 16-18.

We're not talking about over a long period of time. People are trying to argue that we'll see insanely high attack rates in a matter of months. That's likely not going to happen because of varying levels of immunity and just basic epidemiology.

Something like 65% of adults in the UK have a 3rd dose which is quite effective for the time being. If you don't think that that is playing a significant role in how their wave is shaping up, then I don't know what to say.

It says exactly that in the article posted.


"However, with the high vaccination rate and the number of people who have already recovered from the virus, these possibilities are reduced. This means that each individual infected with omicron infects only three others, according to Bhattacharyya."
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:21 PM   #1931
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-snip-

You, I, all of us are getting covid if you haven't already gotten it (pick your variant of choice). For most of us, Omicron will be our first covid infection.
I'm always amused at the certainty of these types of statements(no matter who they are from). Has no one being paying attention? We could be living in an entirely different pandemic in 3 months. Who knows what it will look like.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:44 PM   #1932
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Not everyone is getting COVID. Thatís a silly assertion.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:49 PM   #1933
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BC releasing some pretty optimistic projections today. Basically they're predicting that infections have already peaked in BC and that hospital admissions will peak next week and then slowly drop.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:50 PM   #1934
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Spent ~12 hours yesterday in close contact with someone that tested positive for covid this morning. (I guess pre-flight testing does catch some cases) Technically not required to isolate by AHS requirements (just "monitor for symptoms") but to the basement I go.

And that individual has to isolate in a hotel since he can't fly back home to the US (travelling for work). Brutal.

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Old 01-14-2022, 01:53 PM   #1935
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Not everyone is getting COVID. Thatís a silly assertion.
Depends on the time frame.

Early UK modelling suggested between 1/3 and 1/2 would be infected this wave.
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Old 01-14-2022, 01:57 PM   #1936
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Depends on the time frame.

Early UK modelling suggested between 1/3 and 1/2 would be infected this wave.

And everyone else by April.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:00 PM   #1937
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Depends on the time frame.
And a person's age. It's plausible that some older people who are willing and able to get regular vaccinations for the rest of their lives won't ever get it. But anyone younger? Yeah, I'd say it's a pretty inevitable with waning immunity.

That said, who knows. I think predicting anything about the pandemic more than a few months ahead of time is just wild guesses. It took 2 years for an immune escape variant to come about; with the massive increase in infections we're seeing with Omicron, it might not even take that long to happen again. Or it might not happen at all.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:06 PM   #1938
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And everyone else by April.
Those most pessimistic scenarios in the early models I'm aware of predicted a 50% attack rate in the UK by the end of April. But they also predicted that daily admissions would peak at 8-9K per day, whereas they actually peaked around 2K, so it's pretty clear that their more pessimistic scenario hasn't come to pass.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:08 PM   #1939
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Those most pessimistic scenarios in the early models I'm aware of predicted a 50% attack rate in the UK by the end of April. But they also predicted that daily admissions would peak at 8-9K per day, whereas they actually peaked around 2K, so it's pretty clear that their more pessimistic scenario hasn't come to pass.
Those early models were using virulence equivalent to Delta which we know now is lower. So that would affect hospitalizations but not rate of infections but I do agree with your genera point.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:12 PM   #1940
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People who still think theyíre going to avoid getting covid-19 are about as delusional as those taking ivermectin. Your wishful thinking is not supported by science.
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