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Old 01-14-2022, 10:43 AM   #1901
Raekwon
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Question: We just found out our sons friends parents have been testing him every time he goes over to their house, had they mentioned it we would have been fine with it I think but they did it without asking or telling us. How would you handle this situation?
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:44 AM   #1902
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Saskatchewan still showing 46% of non ICU hospitalizations are incidental infections, providing we eliminate unknown cases. Alberta still not releasing any info on this. Hospitalizations, like case count are no longer relevant in this province if this information is omitted/ ignored.

As of January 13th, a total of 123 individuals are hospitalized, including 112 inpatient hospitalizations and 11 ICU hospitalizations. Of the 123 patients, 52 (42.3%) were not fully vaccinated.
The SHA dashboard includes 123 hospitalizations: 112 residents are inpatient: of those, 55 inpatient hospitalizations are a COVID-19-related illness, 46 are incidental, asymptomatic infections and 11 have not yet been determined. 11 residents are in ICUs: of those, 6 are for COVID-19-related illnesses, 5 is incidental, asymptomatic infections.


https://dashboard.saskatchewan.ca/he...s/hospitalized
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:46 AM   #1903
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Why would 100% of the population get exposed? That never happens with any disease (unless you're talking about over years and years). The UK is already seeing cases decline after an estimated ~25-30% attack rate for Omicron (likely because of high booster uptake).
Manitoba already issued a statement that said it is likely that all Manitobans will be exposed to Omicron.

Fauci already said that it is likely most people will be infected.

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As the Omicron variant spreads like wildfire across the United States, it's likely just about everybody will be exposed to the strain, but vaccinated people will still fare better, the nation's leading infectious disease expert said Tuesday.

"Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will ultimately find just about everybody," Dr. Anthony Fauci told J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Those who have been vaccinated ... and boosted would get exposed. Some, maybe a lot of them, will get infected but will very likely, with some exceptions, do reasonably well in the sense of not having hospitalization and death."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/healt...day/index.html

Makes zero sense to have mandates in place with high vaccination rates & eventual complete exposure.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:47 AM   #1904
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Originally Posted by Derek Sutton View Post
Saskatchewan still showing 46% of non ICU hospitalizations are incidental infections, providing we eliminate unknown cases. Alberta still not releasing any info on this. Hospitalizations, like case count are no longer relevant in this province if this information is omitted/ ignored.

As of January 13th, a total of 123 individuals are hospitalized, including 112 inpatient hospitalizations and 11 ICU hospitalizations. Of the 123 patients, 52 (42.3%) were not fully vaccinated.
The SHA dashboard includes 123 hospitalizations: 112 residents are inpatient: of those, 55 inpatient hospitalizations are a COVID-19-related illness, 46 are incidental, asymptomatic infections and 11 have not yet been determined. 11 residents are in ICUs: of those, 6 are for COVID-19-related illnesses, 5 is incidental, asymptomatic infections.


https://dashboard.saskatchewan.ca/he...s/hospitalized
It's basically a 55/45 split everywhere that's reporting it (+/- a few percentage points on either side), so it's probably safe to assume that Alberta is in that range. I'm surprised at the ICU number though; most other places are seeing only about 10-20% incidental in the ICU.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:48 AM   #1905
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Originally Posted by Derek Sutton View Post
Saskatchewan still showing 46% of non ICU hospitalizations are incidental infections, providing we eliminate unknown cases. Alberta still not releasing any info on this. Hospitalizations, like case count are no longer relevant in this province if this information is omitted/ ignored.

As of January 13th, a total of 123 individuals are hospitalized, including 112 inpatient hospitalizations and 11 ICU hospitalizations. Of the 123 patients, 52 (42.3%) were not fully vaccinated.
The SHA dashboard includes 123 hospitalizations: 112 residents are inpatient: of those, 55 inpatient hospitalizations are a COVID-19-related illness, 46 are incidental, asymptomatic infections and 11 have not yet been determined. 11 residents are in ICUs: of those, 6 are for COVID-19-related illnesses, 5 is incidental, asymptomatic infections.


https://dashboard.saskatchewan.ca/he...s/hospitalized
This number really only matters if you knew what it was in other waves. If its a ton lower in prior waves - then yeah - its important to know. If its a similar level to other waves - then seems less important.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:49 AM   #1906
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek Sutton View Post
Saskatchewan still showing 46% of non ICU hospitalizations are incidental infections, providing we eliminate unknown cases. Alberta still not releasing any info on this. Hospitalizations, like case count are no longer relevant in this province if this information is omitted/ ignored.

As of January 13th, a total of 123 individuals are hospitalized, including 112 inpatient hospitalizations and 11 ICU hospitalizations. Of the 123 patients, 52 (42.3%) were not fully vaccinated.
The SHA dashboard includes 123 hospitalizations: 112 residents are inpatient: of those, 55 inpatient hospitalizations are a COVID-19-related illness, 46 are incidental, asymptomatic infections and 11 have not yet been determined. 11 residents are in ICUs: of those, 6 are for COVID-19-related illnesses, 5 is incidental, asymptomatic infections.


https://dashboard.saskatchewan.ca/he...s/hospitalized
Interesting how it differs between the provinces.

Manitoba was at 66% of COVID hospitalizations being incidental.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:50 AM   #1907
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It's basically a 55/45 split everywhere that's reporting it (+/- a few percentage points on either side), so it's probably safe to assume that Alberta is in that range. I'm surprised at the ICU number though; most other places are seeing only about 10-20% incidental in the ICU.
Would also point to an issue in their ICUs. Outside of old age homes and transplant wards, probably the worst spot to be having an outbreak.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:50 AM   #1908
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Tell me again the government cares and this isn't all about exerting power because they can.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1482024242212392961
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:51 AM   #1909
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Manitoba already issued a statement that said it is likely that all Manitobans will be exposed to Omicron.

Fauci already said that it is likely most people will be infected.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/11/healt...day/index.html

Makes zero sense to have mandates in place with high vaccination rates & eventual complete exposure.
Exposed doesn't mean infected. People with more recent booster doses or somewhat recent Delta infections will likely be protected from an Omicron infection during this wave.

Like I said, the UK is estimating that about 25% of their population has been infected, yet numbers are dropping pretty quickly. How do you get from there to a 100% attack rate in the next few months?
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:57 AM   #1910
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Exposed doesn't mean infected. People with more recent booster doses or somewhat recent Delta infections will likely be protected from an Omicron infection during this wave.

Like I said, the UK is estimating that about 25% of their population has been infected, yet numbers are dropping pretty quickly. How do you get from there to a 100% attack rate in the next few months?
Who said anything about 100% infection?

I said 100% exposure.

Which means the mandates are useless because you are not stopping spread.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:57 AM   #1911
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It's not like the US doesn't have the same policy re: truck drivers. Starting January 22nd, unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers (who handle the vast majority of cross-border trips) won't be able to get into the US.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:06 AM   #1912
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Who said anything about 100% infection?

I said 100% exposure.

Which means the mandates are useless because you are not stopping spread.
Then I have no idea why you're talking about how the virus would behave after that. An exposure doesn't generate immunity to Omicron, so if only ~30% of the population actually gets infected, then there will be plenty of susceptible people to keep it going as booster dose immunity wanes. Hopefully at a low level and with minimal severe disease.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:11 AM   #1913
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It's not like the US doesn't have the same policy re: truck drivers. Starting January 22nd, unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers (who handle the vast majority of cross-border trips) won't be able to get into the US.
I don't think I mentioned it here but probably on Reddit about a year ago when the border was closed to all travel except for essential workers which included health care and truckers etc but I wondered why we couldn't establish trucking "depots" and the major points of entry and just hand off shipments between US and Canadian truckers.

For example, trucker from California drives a shipment up to the border and drops off the trailer at a depot and picks up a return trailer for delivery in the US somewhere. A Canadian trucker does the same and drops off a south bound trailer and picks up the trailer that was dropped off by the California trucker.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:18 AM   #1914
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I don't think I mentioned it here but probably on Reddit about a year ago when the border was closed to all travel except for essential workers which included health care and truckers etc but I wondered why we couldn't establish trucking "depots" and the major points of entry and just hand off shipments between US and Canadian truckers.

For example, trucker from California drives a shipment up to the border and drops off the trailer at a depot and picks up a return trailer for delivery in the US somewhere. A Canadian trucker does the same and drops off a south bound trailer and picks up the trailer that was dropped off by the California trucker.
You could do that, but you'd essentially be doubling the size of the cross border logistics industry.
It would certainly be possible, but it would in no way be feasible.
The time, space, and money required to set that up would almost certainly not have made sense even if it lasted a full 2 years, let alone whatever length of time people thought it would be an issue when this all started.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:23 AM   #1915
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Who said anything about 100% infection?

I said 100% exposure.

Which means the mandates are useless because you are not stopping spread.
Exactly. The public mandates such as 50% capacity, no food, masks, closing early, etc have very little effect on spread and exposure of Omicron.

Which is precisely why a vaccine mandate is needed. Being vaccinated is needed to continue to ensure that 100% exposure continues to mean 25-30% SEVERE infection, rather than near 100% infection that'd you'd get from an unvaccinated population.

Edit: Severe Infection. Infection with no symptoms is only Infection in the most strict of definitions. Call it what you want, but the vaccine keeps people way safer than no vaccine.

Last edited by Draug; 01-14-2022 at 11:49 AM.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:35 AM   #1916
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Exactly. The public mandates such as 50% capacity, no food, masks, closing early, etc have very little effect on spread and exposure of Omicron.

Which is precisely why a vaccine mandate is needed. Being vaccinated is needed to continue to ensure that 100% exposure continues to mean 25-30% infection, rather than near 100% infection that'd you'd get from an unvaccinated population.

You are running under the outdated assumption that being vaccinated or booster vaccinated is a large limiting factor to infection. There is a huge population with breakthrough infection even with recent boosting. Vaccinations are not about transmission or infection. They are about severe outcome.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:36 AM   #1917
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Infection is still likely if you are vaccinated, so your example makes zero sense.

Vaccine mandates only have one purpose, and that is to protect the health care system. We are seeing a trend of a quick rise & fall in both infections & hospitalizations. Obviously it will take time, but there is no reason to keep mandates in place (outside of being a authoritarian power hungry jerk) if the health care system is doing fine.

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The World Health Organization has warned that half of Europe will have caught the Omicron Covid variant within the next six to eight weeks.

Dr Hans Kluge said a "west-to-east tidal wave" of Omicron was sweeping across the region, on top of a surge in the Delta variant.

The projection was based on the seven million new cases reported across Europe in the first week of 2022.

The number of infections has more than doubled in a two-week period.

"Today the Omicron variant represents a new west-to-east tidal wave, sweeping across the region on top of the Delta surge that all countries were managing until late 2021," Dr Kluge told a news conference.

He quoted the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation as forecasting that "more than 50 percent of the population in the region will be infected with Omicron in the next six to eight weeks".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59948920
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:42 AM   #1918
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You are running under the outdated assumption that being vaccinated or booster vaccinated is a large limiting factor to infection. There is a huge population with breakthrough infection even with recent boosting. Vaccinations are not about transmission or infection. They are about severe outcome.
That's true for 2 doses, but not for 3. Based on UK data, the most common 3-dose regimen in Canada (Pfizer-Pfizer-Moderna) is showing to be about 65-70% effective at preventing infection ~2 months after the 3rd dose (which is as far as they have good data for). Eventually it'll wane too, but as of now, the biggest reason the UK is seeing its infections drop is because of their booster rollout which has covered a significant portion of the population.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:46 AM   #1919
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That's true for 2 doses, but not for 3. Based on UK data, the most common 3-dose regimen in Canada (Pfizer-Pfizer-Moderna) is showing to be about 65-70% effective at preventing infection ~2 months after the 3rd dose (which is as far as they have good data for). Eventually it'll wane too, but as of now, the biggest reason the UK is seeing its infections drop is because of their booster rollout which has covered a significant portion of the population.

Do you have a source for this? So far every data piece I have seen shows boosting cannot be expected to reduce infection. I imagine so far, that would be anecdotal conclusions from the UK. Could also be caused from rate of natural infection.


Edit: I would have to find (busy right now) last data I had looked at was showing less then 17% infection protection post booster.
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:51 AM   #1920
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Do you have a source for this? So far every data piece I have seen shows boosting cannot be expected to reduce infection. I imagine so far, that would be anecdotal conclusions from the UK.
Anecdotal? The UK has probably the best data in the world through the pandemic. Anyway, it's from today's Technical Briefing (pages 22-25):

https://assets.publishing.service.go...anuary2022.pdf

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Could also be caused from rate of natural infection.
That would tend to depress vaccine effectiveness numbers, not raise them.
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