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Old 01-04-2022, 06:13 PM   #21
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Massive protests in Kazakhstan tonight. Might we see a Euromaidan type situation here like we did in Ukraine back in 2013-2014?
With that uprising being based on energy costs, itís probably most akin to the Arab Spring we saw after rising food prices.
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Old 01-04-2022, 08:52 PM   #22
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Could a war help with inflation?
Not at all

Considering the factors driving inflation include, probably in order of causation

Shortages due to rigid supply chains being surprised by robust demand and quickly pivoting economies. An aging population in rich countries consuming too much without producing, that will largely be exempted from the direct effects of war. A rebound effect from excessively pessimistic markets 2 years ago and stagflation over the past decade. The invention of 3.5 trillion dollars of unregulated financial assets out of whole cloth. (crypto currency if you didn't catch that). High government spending.

No a war would be likely to make at least 3 of those 5 factors worse, not better.

Also well not a fun thing, the average inflation rate over the last 3 years is like 2.1%, if this has been a steady increase rather than a dip and surge and if there weren't isolated market segments that have seen like 100% increase, we wouldn't be talking about inflation at all. Even at that a 4.9% inflation increase does not mean 4.9% additional spending for most consumers, normal people will have some costs locked in, and will adjust spending habits to the reality they live. I really do wish the news would provide an ounce of nuance to their reporting, and people weren't so eager to hop onto the fear freight train. Because inflation is a year over year measurement, as we get to March/April it will be very telling, when we work our way to 1 year after these jumps started happening we should start to see the rate of increase decline.
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Old 01-04-2022, 09:18 PM   #23
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Is there data behind the government and "a lot" of it citizens being eager to get into a war with Japan? I don't believe there's any truth to this.
There was a ton of anti-Japanese sentiment and anti-Japanese protests a few years ago in China due to a disputed island and news of Japanese textbooks redacting attrocities committed in WWII, etc.

It seems to have abated over recent years but it also doesn't help that Mainland Chinese cinema and popular culture is rife with jingo-istic anti-Japanese war films and what amounts to sheer Asian on Asian racism with them always portrayed as the bad guys in everything from medieval to modern times.
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Old 01-04-2022, 09:33 PM   #24
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Old 01-04-2022, 09:42 PM   #25
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There was a ton of anti-Japanese sentiment and anti-Japanese protests a few years ago in China due to a disputed island and news of Japanese textbooks redacting attrocities committed in WWII, etc.

It seems to have abated over recent years but it also doesn't help that Mainland Chinese cinema and popular culture is rife with jingo-istic anti-Japanese war films and what amounts to sheer Asian on Asian racism with them always portrayed as the bad guys in everything from medieval to modern times.
The Japanese government being revisionists when it comes to their terrible history and disgusting acts against their Asian neighbors (e.g. South Korea, Phillipines, China) is nothing new and certainly wasn't only recently discovered. There's certainly bitterness and anger throughout the Chinese towards what those Japanese did during those times - heck, it pisses me off and I'm Canadian - but I can't see people being happy if a war happens today against a Japanese leadership that had nothing to do with those things and while trying to cover up what happened is terrible, it's not the sort of things that would trigger a country like China to go to war when they haven't shown any sort of desire to be a country that wages wars unlike some other countries.
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Old 01-04-2022, 10:03 PM   #26
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I honestly had no idea any of this was even happening.

Ok.... back under my rock.
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Old 01-04-2022, 10:19 PM   #27
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Government resigns over protests


https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...ce-2022-01-05/


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LMATY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev accepted the government's resignation on Wednesday, his office said, after a fuel price increase in the oil-rich Central Asian country triggered protests in which nearly 100 police were injured.Police used tear gas and stun grenades late on Tuesday to drive hundreds of protesters out of the main square in Almaty, the former Soviet republic's biggest city, and clashes went on for hours in nearby areas. read more

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Speaking to acting cabinet members, Tokayev ordered them and provincial governors to reinstate LPG price controls and broaden them to gasoline, diesel and other "socially important" consumer goods.
He also ordered the government to develop a personal bankruptcy law and consider freezing utilities' prices and subsidising rent payments for poor families.
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Old 01-05-2022, 12:44 AM   #28
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The biggest issue with Taiwan is that the Chinese government and a lot of its population are perfectly happy to get into a fight with Japan. And attempting to re-take Taiwan is an excellent way to provoke that fight, if the Americans and Japanese get involved in pushing back. I do not believe that the USA would be interested in supporting Taiwan without Japan as a partner. So from the Chinese perspective it may be that there's no downside - either a move on Taiwan gets them Taiwan, or it gets them increased momentum towards a conflict with Japan that they want to have anyway.
No. The biggest issue with Taiwan is that itís where the USA gets all its superconductors from, and they do not want China to control that manufacturing arm, at all. Itís actually a national security risk to the USA given much of its newer aged military equipment and weapons rely on said superconductors.

If China makes a move on Taiwan there will be a response. And I think it might just happen actually.
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Old 01-05-2022, 05:52 AM   #29
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Ever since I moved to Poland I have been privy to the drama that goes on in Eastern Europe with a front seat view. Much of it simply doesn't make the North American news other than a couple sentences. For example the Polish border crises with Belarus before the holidays barely got any attention in North American media, but as a huge deal here. My wife is also Ukrainian so I get a lot of the scoop of what goes on in her country. Not to mention there is a huge amount of Ukrainians working in Poland. So everyone here is very aware of what is going on in Ukraine.

I will start by saying that it's pretty personal for us that no additional armed conflict happens in Ukraine. Not only because war is stupid, but my wife's family lives 2km from the Ukraine/Russian border just north of Kharkiv. If an invasion does happen away from the Eastern border (where most of the conflict is now), her family's village is the very first stop for the Russians on their way to enter Kharkiv (which is predominantly Russian speaking).

Last time we went to visit the family's village it was pretty surreal for myself being that close to Russia. As her Dad drove us back to Kharkiv, the highway we were on straddles the border line between both countries. We were on the Ukrainian side, and literally the field on the other side of the highway was Russia. All I could think about was if war does break out, this is the same field those tank will come rumbling through.

So we are keeping an eye on the situation very intently. We are moving back to Canada later this year, but my wife wants to go back to visit her friends and family before we go, pack all her stuff and hang out in her city for a bit. We've already had talks that we are going to watch this situation intently, and there's no way I can possibly let her go back in the midst of an armed conflict where her city is possibly on the front lines. We just don't know what's going to happen, but again it's pretty personal for us what the outcome of this conflict is going to be.

I'd be lying if I said I'm not happy that NATO and Western allies are being unified and supporting Ukraine. Maybe not with troops. But with supplies, training, weapons, etc. Proxy war still sucks. But it's better than doing absolutely nothing. This is also a different Ukrainian army than when Crimea was taken. Much better equipped, trained and has Western backing. But still, I don't like their chances in a full scale invasion. I also don't think Russia would be able to sustain a long term attack. Apparently one of the sanctions that will be imposed is cutting them of the SWIFT banking system. If that happens, goodbye Oligarch money around the world. Goodbye payments to International Russian business companies and workers. Goodbye to the whole reason Putin and his cronies keeps themselves in power (aka money).

My opinion is that it's a huge bluff that Putin is trying to pull in attempting to gain his demands. However he also ####ed up. During Trump's and even Obama's tenure, it seemed like NATO was king of fading into obscurity. Especially when Trump made rumblings of disbanding it. But now more than ever, NATO and their allies seem stronger and infinitely more united. Putin ####ed up is miscalculating all this. Psychopaths like him have too much pride to just fold their cards and back off. It's simply not a part of Russian culture to just back off, admit being wrong and apologize with your tail between your legs for the world to see. They go down swinging more often than not.

Like I told my wife last night, I'm not a huge Biden supporter by any means, but I thank Jesus everyday that it's him who won the US election and not Trump. Don't even want to envision what would be the result of all this if that goof was still president.

So in conclusion and to respond to the OP, I sure as #### hope this is not the year where armed conflict breaks out around the world!

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Old 01-05-2022, 06:53 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post
The biggest issue with Taiwan is that the Chinese government and a lot of its population are perfectly happy to get into a fight with Japan. And attempting to re-take Taiwan is an excellent way to provoke that fight, if the Americans and Japanese get involved in pushing back. I do not believe that the USA would be interested in supporting Taiwan without Japan as a partner. So from the Chinese perspective it may be that there's no downside - either a move on Taiwan gets them Taiwan, or it gets them increased momentum towards a conflict with Japan that they want to have anyway.
China wants to retake Taiwan because itís part of China. It has nothing to do with provoking Japan.
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Old 01-05-2022, 08:45 AM   #31
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Ever since I moved to Poland I have been privy to the drama that goes on in Eastern Europe with a front seat view. Much of it simply doesn't make the North American news other than a couple sentences. For example the Polish border crises with Belarus before the holidays barely got any attention in North American media, but as a huge deal here. My wife is also Ukrainian so I get a lot of the scoop of what goes on in her country. Not to mention there is a huge amount of Ukrainians working in Poland. So everyone here is very aware of what is going on in Ukraine.

I will start by saying that it's pretty personal for us that no additional armed conflict happens in Ukraine. Not only because war is stupid, but my wife's family lives 2km from the Ukraine/Russian border just north of Kharkiv. If an invasion does happen away from the Eastern border (where most of the conflict is now), her family's village is the very first stop for the Russians on their way to enter Kharkiv (which is predominantly Russian speaking).

Last time we went to visit the family's village it was pretty surreal for myself being that close to Russia. As her Dad drove us back to Kharkiv, the highway we were on straddles the border line between both countries. We were on the Ukrainian side, and literally the field on the other side of the highway was Russia. All I could think about was if war does break out, this is the same field those tank will come rumbling through.

So we are keeping an eye on the situation very intently. We are moving back to Canada later this year, but my wife wants to go back to visit her friends and family before we go, pack all her stuff and hang out in her city for a bit. We've already had talks that we are going to watch this situation intently, and there's no way I can possibly let her go back in the midst of an armed conflict where her city is possibly on the front lines. We just don't know what's going to happen, but again it's pretty personal for us what the outcome of this conflict is going to be.

I'd be lying if I said I'm not happy that NATO and Western allies are being unified and supporting Ukraine. Maybe not with troops. But with supplies, training, weapons, etc. Proxy war still sucks. But it's better than doing absolutely nothing. This is also a different Ukrainian army than when Crimea was taken. Much better equipped, trained and has Western backing. But still, I don't like their chances in a full scale invasion. I also don't think Russia would be able to sustain a long term attack. Apparently one of the sanctions that will be imposed is cutting them of the SWIFT banking system. If that happens, goodbye Oligarch money around the world. Goodbye payments to International Russian business companies and workers. Goodbye to the whole reason Putin and his cronies keeps themselves in power (aka money).

My opinion is that it's a huge bluff that Putin is trying to pull in attempting to gain his demands. However he also ####ed up. During Trump's and even Obama's tenure, it seemed like NATO was king of fading into obscurity. Especially when Trump made rumblings of disbanding it. But now more than ever, NATO and their allies seem stronger and infinitely more united. Putin ####ed up is miscalculating all this. Psychopaths like him have too much pride to just fold their cards and back off. It's simply not a part of Russian culture to just back off, admit being wrong and apologize with your tail between your legs for the world to see. They go down swinging more often than not.

Like I told my wife last night, I'm not a huge Biden supporter by any means, but I thank Jesus everyday that it's him who won the US election and not Trump. Don't even want to envision what would be the result of all this if that goof was still president.

So in conclusion and to respond to the OP, I sure as #### hope this is not the year where armed conflict breaks out around the world!
The thought of armed conflict is obviously really scary, given the history of that region.

But the bolded is why I firmly believe nothing will come of it. Putin is sabre rattling. His support comes from the Oligarchs, and if his actions threaten their money (which it will) they will remove him.
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Old 01-05-2022, 08:57 AM   #32
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No. The biggest issue with Taiwan is that it’s where the USA gets all its superconductors from, and they do not want China to control that manufacturing arm, at all. It’s actually a national security risk to the USA given much of its newer aged military equipment and weapons rely on said superconductors.

If China makes a move on Taiwan there will be a response. And I think it might just happen actually.
I’ve seen this argument from several sources. But I question the logic of it.

The semiconductor plants are high-tech factories made up of extraordinarily complex precision machinery. They only have value if captured intact.

Why wouldn’t the U.S., or even Taiwan’s government, simply target the facilities with missiles or other destructive weapons, and notify China that the instant hostile Chinese forces set foot on Taiwan, the plants will be destroyed? That would remove the plants as an economic prize.
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Old 01-05-2022, 09:03 AM   #33
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Recent lessons in supply chain reliability should have every first world country building their own high tech factories regardless of the cost.
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Old 01-05-2022, 11:11 AM   #34
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Recent lessons in supply chain reliability should have every first world country building their own high tech factories regardless of the cost.
^ and energy infrastructure, and factory capacity for all sorts of critical items...


Except that they won't. They'll see it as a blip / anomaly and will hope that things go back to normal soon
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Old 01-05-2022, 12:22 PM   #35
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I think we're closer to war than we have been in a long time, but I still don't think it's likely. All of these warring countries are so hard baked into globalism and economic entanglement it would be a catastrophic experiment in self-harm.
I actually don't think we are closer to war.

I don't see Israel attacking Iran, because Iran has Israel surrounded in proxy armies with a plethora of cheap soviet era weapons. Israel, despite their new leader rattling his sabre, seems to be going the diplomacy route. They've put a lot of effort into setting up relations with surrounding nations. Their goal is likely to cut off Iran diplomatically, which means isolating Iran from Russia.

That may not be all that difficult of a goal, as Russia seems to have had enough of Iran's meddling in Syria:

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/is...m-syria-683814

On top of that, the Arab League, which is in conflict with Iran, is courting Assad back to their side:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/01...b-world-again/

I don't see China attacking Taiwan, as their current goals seem to be economically based. China can't afford the economic repercussions of war. At the end of the day, the USA and Japan are the #1 and #3 consumers of Chinese goods (with Hong Kong being #2...guess that's still kind of separate):

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country

As for Russia invading the Ukraine....well that's the most likely. Not the whole thing, but maybe a part, as Putin is nuts. Even then, that would be ridiculously damaging to Russia's current relationships. The Crimea was a one off, which can be tolerated once in a generation. Habitually invading is another thing.
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Old 01-05-2022, 12:57 PM   #36
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These protests are in response to the lifting of price caps on liquefied petroleum gas. Nothing to do with the encroachment of Russia, China, or any other country.

Please don't fear-monger on this type of thing and get context. Do not conflate these protests with symptoms of a pending world war.
I think you are pretty naive if you think this is only about gas prices. Protesters have seized weapons and security forces have been killed today. They have also seized one of the major airports and have said they have done so to prevent Russian forces from landing. I think a lot of this in anti Russian sentiment.

I donít think discussing current events is fear mongering, and itís pretty rich for you to advice someone to get context when you donít seem to grasp the situation.
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Old 01-05-2022, 01:03 PM   #37
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By no means am I defending Putin as he is a bad player, but Crimea was always historically Russian, was it not? Sevastopol was one of those quasi-independent city states within the USSR, but Crimea was always a Russian region since Russians existed I thought.

It was a political move to let Ukraine SSR have the region during the 20th century, and it is currently majority Russians.

Still doesn't mean he has a right to snatch it away, but understandable to an extent.
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Old 01-05-2022, 01:25 PM   #38
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By no means am I defending Putin as he is a bad player, but Crimea was always historically Russian, was it not? Sevastopol was one of those quasi-independent city states within the USSR, but Crimea was always a Russian region since Russians existed I thought.

It was a political move to let Ukraine SSR have the region during the 20th century, and it is currently majority Russians.

Still doesn't mean he has a right to snatch it away, but understandable to an extent.
Crimea was historically inhabited by Tatars, who were ethnically cleansed and replaced by Russians and Ukrainians:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deport...es%20of%20land.
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Old 01-05-2022, 01:35 PM   #39
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I think you are pretty naive if you think this is only about gas prices. Protesters have seized weapons and security forces have been killed today. They have also seized one of the major airports and have said they have done so to prevent Russian forces from landing. I think a lot of this in anti Russian sentiment.

I donít think discussing current events is fear mongering, and itís pretty rich for you to advice someone to get context when you donít seem to grasp the situation.
Well, then the onus is on your to prove this is about Russia and the potential for starting a world war through Kazakhstan. This started as caps on LNG protests, has evolved to anti-government protests against an autocratic regime in place since 1990. It also sounds more like internal power struggles between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, with civil fractions at play.

You think Russia is going to risk intervening in Kazakhstan while he's doing a mass build-up of arms on the Ukrainian border and has all eyes from NATO watching his every move? This just adds more risk to his plate and spreads troops thin if he even dares to intervene.

If you're claiming this is about Russia starting world war, then I'll get my chair and popcorn and you can fill us all in on what you know and the facts around all of it.
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Old 01-05-2022, 02:20 PM   #40
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Keep your eye on Bosnia as well. Things are very fragile there right now.

Bosnian Serbs are being led by Serbia's president Vucic to pull out of the Bosnian Army to form their own, and will be boycotting paying taxes and supporting other federal institutions. Basically declaring separation with with out calling it that. Germany has threatened sanctions, Russia and China and pledged to support Serbia. The most recent hoopla was triggered when Bosnia passed a law to criminalize genocide denial which was supported by the Bosniak-Croat Federation but offended the the Serbian leader, Milorad Dodik. And of course, Putin has had his fingers in it.

https://www.rferl.org/a/bosnia-crise.../31612425.html



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