Oettinger v Markstrom - the data

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Dragomir

Dallas was a solid team that played a good structure, the Oilers are a better team but less frustrating to play against. I think we will see a few 7-6 games this series.

No 9 to 5?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Was the Flames's shooting percentage so l9w because they were struggling on their own to finish? Or was it because Ottinger was saving a lot mode than he should have been able?

I agree that this series was probably too high a bar for him to meet next season, but I also don't think the Flanes made him look any better than he actually played. He really did put on a generational performance. It reminded me of how JS Giguete played when he won thd Conn Smythe and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals.


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Gaudreau could have had three more in the last game and they were not shot into the chest either. There were a lot of great saves, not just chest shooting .

[FlamesAddiction]

Smith's number look good and he has been on a tear for a while. At age 40 after 7 playoff games, he has a higher save percentage than he has had over the course of any season or playoffs in his career, and the 3rd best GAA (highest in 10 years). You have to think that those stats regress back to his career norms at some point. Smith has always lived inside his own head. Right now he probably thinks he is god's gift to mankind. But when he is low, he becomes a liability to his team.

If the Flames can get some goals early, it would go a long way to bringing him back down to Earth. If they fail and feed his confidence, it could be a long series.

[PeteMoss]

Smith I'd say is high variance. He can throw the puck away and give up an awful goal and then also make a miracle save or two. He had one miracle playoff run 10 years ago but has been pretty normal ever since.

I also think if the Oilers are bleeding chances to the Kings, they are going to have some serious issues against the Flames. The Kings and Stars were the two least offensive teams in the playoffs. We basically shutdown the Stars. The Kings went to town with chances in a few of those games against the Oilers.

[JohnnyB]

Smith is a very competitive guy and has expressed his hatred for the Flames. I expect he'll be driven to show his best in this series and he is admittedly a tough goalie to beat when he's on his game. I always liked that competitive drive when he was on the Flames, and he was arguably the team's best player against Colorado in the playoffs that year.

That said, he's certainly not without his vulnerabilities. In addition to being a competitive hot head, another of those vulnerabilities is that he's just really old for the NHL. Tim Thomas was 37 when he won it with Boston, so it's not like an old guy can't win, but at 40 there must be questions as to how well he'll hold up, especially if the Flames get him moving a lot in net and he has to face a barrage of high quality shots playing behind some awful team defense.

If the Flames get him moving a lot, pepper him with shots, and get in his head a bit, he could turn from one of their strongest players into a weak point of the team in a couple of games. If Smith can be thrown off his game, and if Draisaitl is dealing with injury, it's basically just McDavid against the world.

[Infinit47]

The Oilers had the most even expected goal split of the first round with a 50.9% share. The Flames on the other hand had the 3rd highest expected goal split at 56.27%.

I would expect the Flames to out chance the Oilers over this series and I hope it's to a degree that puts the games out of reach even factoring in McDavid's heroics.

Markstrom was awesome that first round, and I hope he keeps getting better.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Correction: Smith played great in half of that series. He was not very good in Game #3, and then was awful in Game #5.

I said this on Reddit and was accused of revisionist history. I watched the highlights of Games 3 and 5, where Smith was beaten for 11 goals. They were a lot of one timers and tips, but Smith could have easily had 3-4.

Game 3 was a blowout and it didn't matter, but the Flames were in Game 5 until they weren't and couldn't get a save.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

..If the Flames can get some goals early, it would go a long way to bringing him back down to Earth. If they fail and feed his confidence, it could be a long series.

It took Colorado until Game 3 to really solve him, and then made quick work of it. I am confident that Smith can implode at any time; even if he looks unbeatable in Games 1 and 2, the cracks are already there.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Dragomir

Dallas was a solid team that played a good structure....

They are actually a below average team,and the only playoff team with a negative goal differential during the season.

The gave up tons and scoring chances and high danger scoring chances in the Flames series, but were bailed out by luck and great goaltending.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They are actually a below average team,and the only playoff team with a negative goal differential during the season.

The Stars got off to a truly terrible start. In the second half they were 5th in points in the conference, as various posters have remarked.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They are actually a below average team,and the only playoff team with a negative goal differential during the season.

The gave up tons and scoring chances and high danger scoring chances in the Flames series, but were bailed out by luck and great goaltending.

Check out their record with Oettinger and without. Check out their record second half of the season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Check out their record with Oettinger and without. Check out their record second half of the season.

Yeah, I guess they are better than I thought, but they did not play well against the Flames, save for their goaltender.

With average goaltending they would have given up over 4 goals per game.

But credit the Flames for playing so well against them.

if the Flames and Oilers play the exact same as each did in the first round, I expect the Flames to win easily. It really depends on Smith continuing to play out of his mind. I just don't see that.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Yeah, I guess they are better than I thought, but they did not play well against the Flames, save for their goaltender.

With average goaltending they would have given up over 4 goals per game.

But credit the Flames for playing so well against them.

if the Flames and Oilers play the exact same as each did in the first round, I expect the Flames to win easily. It really depends on Smith continuing to play out of his mind. I just don't see that.

TSN just showed a statistic that said since 1955 among goaltenders who have player at least 36 games (his total) in the playoffs, he has the 2nd best save % among all of them

Yes you could say i was gobsmacked.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by transplant99

TSN just showed a statistic that said since 1955 among goaltenders who have player at least 36 games (his total) in the playoffs, he has the 2nd best save % among all of them

Yes you could say i was gobsmacked.

It's true and 3rd is ....Jonas Hiller




then Craig Anderson- it's a weird list and interestingly those 3 guys all born in 81 or 82 seems like an era of high save percentage goaltending


Vokoun is 5th and Kolzig 6th. Smith , Vokoun and Kolzig all have losing playoff records. Next 3 highest guys with losing records are Talbot, Kipper and Hellebuyck


this is like a nightmare list of Canadian teams playoff misadventures here

[looooob]

Mike Smith also leads all active goalies in playoff penalty minutes, and in way less games than all the other leaders

[Ducay]

Tkachuk needs to get under Smitty's skin early. Guy has the mental fortitude of an 11 year old

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by looooob

It's true and 3rd is ....Jonas Hiller




then Craig Anderson- it's a weird list and interestingly those 3 guys all born in 81 or 82 seems like an era of high save percentage goaltending


Vokoun is 5th and Kolzig 6th. Smith , Vokoun and Kolzig all have losing playoff records. Next 3 highest guys with losing records are Talbot, Kipper and Hellebuyck


this is like a nightmare list of Canadian teams playoff misadventures here

It looks to me like teams who got shelled by better teams and lost, just while keeping a good save percentage.

You can show me as many numbers and statistics about Mike Smith, but I know what he is. A hot head 40 year old who spends most of his time flopping around and trying to make passes to his defencemen. I’d be surprised if he wins a game for Edmonton this series.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by looooob

Mike Smith also leads all active goalies in playoff penalty minutes, and in way less games than all the other leaders

What's a Mike Smith Hattrick? Maybe a penalty, a 5-hole softy, and a death glare at his defenseman?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

What's a Mike Smith Hattrick? Maybe a penalty, a 5-hole softy, and a death glare at his defenseman?

There’s gotta be a turnover from puck handling in there