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Old 01-24-2018, 02:39 PM   #1
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Default Home Woes

The Numbers Behind the Dome Woes

All comes down to luck.

The Flames have had more shots, attempts and scoring chances on home ice as splits but don't have the finish or the goaltending on home ice to have the results seen in the standings.
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Old 01-24-2018, 02:45 PM   #2
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Sorry I just can't resist

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Old 01-24-2018, 03:04 PM   #3
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If you are telling us that the Flames are primed for an upcoming home winning streak, then I'm on board this time!
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Old 01-24-2018, 05:03 PM   #4
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Book it!

though I think a bit of a correction away from home is also likely
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Old 01-24-2018, 06:44 PM   #5
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They suck because, randomness! Great.

Except no, it's not luck. Their style of play at home is terrible - too focused on trying to make the great play and not focused enough on simplifying the game. They lack the commitment to defensive play that permeates their road play.

On the road, they play a simple, solid game. Getting outshot is no big surprise considering last change. But shot attempts interest me little.

Their home woes are not going to turn around because their shooting percentage will creep up. It will turn around when they play a smarter brand of hockey.
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Old 01-24-2018, 07:20 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
They suck because, randomness! Great.

Except no, it's not luck. Their style of play at home is terrible - too focused on trying to make the great play and not focused enough on simplifying the game. They lack the commitment to defensive play that permeates their road play.

On the road, they play a simple, solid game. Getting outshot is no big surprise considering last change. But shot attempts interest me little.

Their home woes are not going to turn around because their shooting percentage will creep up. It will turn around when they play a smarter brand of hockey.
lol
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Old 01-24-2018, 07:28 PM   #7
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Whatever the reason is they better figure it out or they will be in tough to make into the playoffs with Anaheim and San Jose heating up
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Old 01-24-2018, 07:37 PM   #8
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I think textcritics prediction about the Sharks might actually come true now with Thornton going down.
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Old 01-24-2018, 08:02 PM   #9
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lol
if it were from a poster I actually respected, I might be concerned about your obsession towards me. But it's not.
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Old 01-24-2018, 08:12 PM   #10
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The lengths fans will go to deny the role of luck in the game is marvellous to behold.

"Luck? Pshaw! The just didn't want it enough! Didn't put in a good enough effort!"
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Old 01-24-2018, 08:20 PM   #11
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The lengths fans will go to deny the role of luck in the game is marvellous to behold.

"Luck? Pshaw! The just didn't want it enough! Didn't put in a good enough effort!"
I agree with you - I often remind other posters that there is a large amount of luck, or more accurately, randomness, in sports. And in hockey in particular.

But ignoring problems, and blaming everything on luck is just as bad, if not worse, than being oblivious to the role that randomness does play.
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Old 01-25-2018, 01:39 AM   #12
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They sucked tonight because they took their foot off the gas. It was clear that outcome was in LA's favour 5:00 into the third when the Kings almost came back from a 24-12 shot deficit and the team was reeling. Luck is where persistence and hard work meet. Other top performing teams continually rise to the challenge and adversity and I don't call it luck. It's hard work and the will to win.

My major frustration point is that the coach doesn't adapt. He has the opportunity to regroup. To call a timeout he never uses and tell them what he is seeing. Reset the momentum. If he doesn't want to do that, reset some of the lines to adapt to the dominance that was unfolding before them. You can see when the team goes off the rails.

Smith was outstanding and kept them in the game. It could have been much worse without him.
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Old 01-25-2018, 06:46 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
They suck because, randomness! Great.

Except no, it's not luck. Their style of play at home is terrible - too focused on trying to make the great play and not focused enough on simplifying the game. They lack the commitment to defensive play that permeates their road play.

On the road, they play a simple, solid game. Getting outshot is no big surprise considering last change. But shot attempts interest me little.

Their home woes are not going to turn around because their shooting percentage will creep up. It will turn around when they play a smarter brand of hockey.
Not sure my summary was randomness.

If you want to ignore numbers and say they suck, you can certainly do that. But a dig into the numbers says their goaltender isn't as good on home ice, that's the principal reason for not winning at home this year, and I doubt the guy has trouble with the air in Calgary.

Sometimes you get a run of games that just go a certain way, and the team is in the plus column away from home but can't buy a break when they play at the dome.

All the numbers support that.
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Old 01-25-2018, 08:24 AM   #14
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Can the numbers detect collapses during games? Like Calgarywinning stated they were outshooting the Kings 24-12 until 5 minutes into the 3rd. Then the Kings came on strong. Would looking at stats a couple weeks from now detect that type of collapse?
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Old 01-25-2018, 08:34 AM   #15
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Can the numbers detect collapses during games? Like Calgarywinning stated they were outshooting the Kings 24-12 until 5 minutes into the 3rd. Then the Kings came on strong. Would looking at stats a couple weeks from now detect that type of collapse?
But how much of this is on the other team? It is exceptionally rare nowadays for a NHL team to simply dominate a game from start to finish, and the Kings are the highest-scoring team in third periods in the entire League.
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Old 01-25-2018, 08:48 AM   #16
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The eye test for me matches what your statistical analysis does - the Flames are able to generate chances, a significant amount of them qualifying as high danger, but at home they're just wound up for whatever reason and try to make the 1 extra pass or take the one extra second to try and aim the shot better, allowing the defender to close the lane up.

Whereas on the road they wouldn't be overthinking it and would just whip it at the net. We need more dirty goals, fellas, not just the pretty tic-tac-toes.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:25 PM   #17
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Is there any reason to have hope the Flames will come home and be able to win at a decent rate?

It's not a small sample size any more. We have a president's cup worthy road record and a draft lottery hopeful home record. Something is clearly broken in how we're matching line, or the system we play at home.

We could theoretically miss the playoffs with the best road record in the league. I wonder if that's ever been done in the nhl or any major sports league.

All I can think of is the Flames maybe are better suited at playing a patient game where they keep the home team on the perimeter and wait for mistakes and counter attacks, but don't succeed at trying to create offense and defend against the counter attack. Whatever it is, the coaching staff needs to figure it out right about now.
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Old 02-16-2018, 01:48 AM   #18
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Bingo, your conclusion is not to over think it because it is luck. Then again, some people say your work or preparation leads to luck.

You have brought out data that basically suggests they should be better at home than they are, but the only results that matter frankly don’t support it, rather they run contrary.

Well how about another hypothesis. Maybe the team’s potential is better than the coaches are getting from it

Coaching involves putting forth a game plan, and opposing coaches are doing the same, having researched your game plan.

At home, you have the benefit of choosing the right lines to implement your game plan, with last change. On the road, you live with the matchups you are dealt. Less control of coaches, better results where it matters.

At some point you have to question the indicators and weight opinions towards results.

Let’s talk about the PP. Tonight it had some success. The problem with the PP a lot of the time is that when they get control, they wait and look for the right person, while the other team has time to adjust their positioning and defend. Also that when they have control, I see often that they get themselves in 3 on 4 situations and fail to create localized situations where they outnumber the opponent. Tonight, a quick shot from Gio I think it was to get it on net, and a quick reaction from Tkachuk out front. This is something Tkachuk personally works on every practice, not obviously diagnosed as the success of systems work on the PP.

So can you conclude that the coaches’ work on the PP translate to results? I can’t. I actually attribute the PP success to the players tonight, due to the correct instinct and response in unpredictable situations

Maybe it’s the same deal in general.

You have a roster with higher expectations than actual results demonstrate. The coaches at home should theoretically have an advantage, an opportunity to tilt the game in their favour

Maybe the coaches are fine at putting forth a mediocre and competitive game plan, yet despite finding a way to generate advanced stats that support a hypothesis that the Flames are unlucky, are rather simply not making decisions that are helping the team to succeed beyond that of an effective staff

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Old 02-16-2018, 01:53 AM   #19
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Or in other words when you are consistently unlucky beyond statistical significance (which may still be debatable), you need to look under the hood.

The question ‘is it the coaches or is it the players’ is often trotted out on both sides of the ledger
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Old 02-16-2018, 08:27 AM   #20
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Let Rittich play most of the home games. Problem solved
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