Will Republicans still back him if he loses and claims foul?
He's not going to be running again in 4 years is he? Or would Republicans finally move on from Trump if he loses in November?
This made me think. With Trump's age and decline, what happens with his movement? Who takes up the mantel? MTG seems to be the loudest supporter, but I'm not sure she has the charisma that Trump has. Has Trump done enough to create a lasting movement or do his followers collapse in the absence of Trump?
Do you think there is any chance when he loses he doesn't go on about how it was rigged and that they are trying to steal the election and what the people actually want? He is totally going to claim he won and I have no doubt the Republicans are going to support his claim. This is the same party who said if the Supreme Court said States could keep him off the ballot they would just count his votes anyhow. They are full board to throw out the rules. Will it work and Trump ends up President anyhow? No, but it is going to make a hell of a mess with large populations causing trouble and saying they refuse to recognize Biden as president. I think it is going to get ugly and ugly fast. I really really hope I am wrong but I don't think so.
Oh, no definitely agree with you that this side won't accept the result if Biden wins.
I was more asking about the bolded:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
People are way buying into skewed polls influenced by Republican propaganda. Biden will win and it won't be close. What you have to worry about is when Trump calls foul and chaos begins.
Polls will under/over sample populations, that they normally correct for (at least quality ones do) accordingly, but I am not aware of how they are being influenced by Republican propoganda, which I'd like to learn more about,
I'm somewhat hopeful with most of the republican primaries where consistently 20-30% of republicans didn't vote for Trump even though the nomination for the republican party was never really in doubt... it might be a stretch, but it would be great if the majority of those people stay home or vote independent (even though RFK Jr. may actually be insane).
Trump got 74 million votes last time, if that number were drastically reduced to ~60 million he'd still scream about rigged/stolen elections and election interference, but most of the republican party would have a hard time taking him seriously.
I'm somewhat hopeful with most of the republican primaries where consistently 20-30% of republicans didn't vote for Trump even though the nomination for the republican party was never really in doubt... it might be a stretch, but it would be great if the majority of those people stay home or vote independent (even though RFK Jr. may actually be insane).
Trump got 74 million votes last time, if that number were drastically reduced to ~60 million he'd still scream about rigged/stolen elections and election interference, but most of the republican party would have a hard time taking him seriously.
I do think it is not that different then that Gaza war protest votes, when it is the real race, there will be a large come back home effect. I think there is certainly hope, that even if it is only 75% return home for Trump, and he could lose ~5 million votes, who would create a historic landslide in the electoral college for Biden. But I do think there is very real risk that Trump will get the normal 96% come home effect, just as we should expect Biden to with the war protestors.
I think this is where people off in terms of the 3rd party risks. The Biden protest voters are first and foremost invested in defeating Trump, and will almost certainly 'come home'. The Trump voters are a much more mixed bag. I think you could see some of them sitting out, or going to a 3rd party because their protest is over actually believing that Trump is a bad president, bad person, unqualified.... rather than the Democrat who feel Biden is on the wrong side of a political choice and they want to change his mind.
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This made me think. With Trump's age and decline, what happens with his movement? Who takes up the mantel? MTG seems to be the loudest supporter, but I'm not sure she has the charisma that Trump has. Has Trump done enough to create a lasting movement or do his followers collapse in the absence of Trump?
I think it could be some of both.
His core followers will continue to follow him.. the tea party was a thing before Trump, MAGA will continue after being a portion of the party.
But maybe it'll go back to how it was before where so-called RINOs (establishment Republicans call them) were the majority of the power, the MAGA types were on the fringe.
So maybe those Republicans that don't like Trump will start voting more again and the MAGA ones will still be vocal but won't be a significant portion of the Republican voters?
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Oh, no definitely agree with you that this side won't accept the result if Biden wins.
I was more asking about the bolded:
Polls will under/over sample populations, that they normally correct for (at least quality ones do) accordingly, but I am not aware of how they are being influenced by Republican propoganda, which I'd like to learn more about,
Well a lot of polls I find lean right wing because they come from publications that are more right wing oriented, like the latest one from the Walk Street Journal. I wouldn't worry what the polls gave been saying anyhow when it comes to the US election because over the past 20 years or so they have been extremely wrong.
The campaign of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is out with a fundraising email referring to Jan. 6 defendants as "activists" who have been "stripped of their Constitutional liberties," echoing former President Donald Trump's rhetoric about the 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Lawyers for the law enforcement office made a court filing that “hereby takes exception to the sufficiency of the surety,” noting that KSIC is trying to operate “without a certificate of qualification.” Under New York law, state regulators have certain standards to ensure that an insurer is “solvent, responsible and otherwise qualified to make policies or contracts of the kind required.”
Now there's an April 22 hearing on it.
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Just going to post another Christopher Titus video, as he seems to be a voice for the independent voter. This one is on RFK jr. As you may have guessed, it doesn't look good for RFK with the independent crowd. Most of them read a little about the candidates.
If that's true, and if I assume the nature of these conspiracy theories to hold firmly in one camp, he'll be stealing votes from ol' Don the Con come election time.
Good. Time for the right to feel the Ralph Nader burn.
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This made me think. With Trump's age and decline, what happens with his movement? Who takes up the mantel? MTG seems to be the loudest supporter, but I'm not sure she has the charisma that Trump has. Has Trump done enough to create a lasting movement or do his followers collapse in the absence of Trump?
Without Trump, the movement splinters immediately. You can see this in the way the QAnon movement has splintered since Q stopped posting in December of 2019.
QAnon still has Trump as a central figure in the conspiracy, but now you have a thousand different 'influencers' on Rumble and Telegram and the other channels they use all of them getting in endless "No-true-Scotsman" style fights with each other.
Without Trump, you immediately see splitting between the evangelicals and the populists, and the strange group of semi-liberal, granola anti-vaxxers. I think it's unlikely these people become reliably democrat in any way, but a lot of them hold an intense dislike for the Republican Party itself and are likely lost to them for an election cycle or two.
