Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Nancy

I think they said only on Dec. 29 and Jan. 3, or something like that?

What a ####ing joke. The Conservatives in Ontario work on weekends, what's so special about these guys?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Possibly but unlikely, most viruses mutate to be less deadly, the few examples of becoming more lethal after mutating didn't last long.

Ebola, West Nile and the Spanish flu did but quickly either died out fast or mutated again to be a lot weaker(Spanish flu)

Maybe it's just wishful thinking but I can't find one case where a virus with multiple mutations got more deadly.

You could read my previous post, where it says COVID mutated and got more severe. So you don't have to look far back.

[Amethyst]

Viruses don't mutate to become more or less deadly. A mutation is just a mistake made during copying. More deadly versions tend not to take hold because they often kill the host before he/she can pass it on.

Covid, unfortunately, is most contagious before the host has symptoms. So if a more deadly mutation arise, it can easily be passed on before the host dies.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

Viruses don't mutate to become more or less deadly. A mutation is just a mistake made during copying. More deadly versions tend not to take hold because they often kill the host before he/she can pass it on.

Covid, unfortunately, is most contagious before the host has symptoms. So if a more deadly mutation arise, it can easily be passed on before the host dies.

There are a huge number of factors that can contribute to selective pressures. It is possible (likely?), that more selective pressures exist which will select for a virus which is more transmissible but also less virulent.

For viruses that remain more severe/deadly, then you can imagine a situation where less deadly versions are less fit than the more deadly versions. In other words, a less deadly virus of that virus cannot be created without impairing its ability to compete.

Humanity deals with the annoyance of a group of ancient endemic coronaviruses. It is very easy to believe that these did not start out as annoyances, but started out as more severe but became less severe due to selective pressure. Does this happen to all coronaviruses? We don't know - although through hundreds or thousands of years, these annoyance level coronaviruses never see a highly dangerous version. Dangerous coronaviruses are an anomaly among the overall pool of coronavirus infections. So the possibility that this coronavirus has the possibility of becoming less virulent is noteworthy. That in combination with our observation of more severe coronaviruses being, at least to some degree, self limiting is also noteworthy.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

What a ####ing joke. The Conservatives in Ontario work on weekends, what's so special about these guys?

These guys have never worked.

[BoLevi]

CDC recommending quarantine periods go down to 5 days. This makes sense.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-guidance.html

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You could read my previous post, where it says COVID mutated and got more severe. So you don't have to look far back.

Influenza also has deadlier variants from time to time.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You could read my previous post, where it says COVID mutated and got more severe. So you don't have to look far back.

Alpha and Beta were pretty much the same.

Gamma and Delta morality rates per 100k were close but Delta was 3x more transmissible so it looked much worst.

Omicron looks more like a bad cold.

All I'm saying is it's unlikely the next mutation flips Omicron into a killer.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

CDC recommending quarantine periods go down to 5 days. This makes sense.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-guidance.html

If asymptomatic.

But I agree, need to adapt to the new reality of Omicron

[Torture]

Friend's Anti-Vax mother in law is apparently in the ICU. Predictable but sad.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If asymptomatic.

But I agree, need to adapt to the new reality of Omicron

It's if asymptomatic at that time, just to be clear. So you can have symptoms. They can go away within five days, and then you can stop isolating.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Alpha and Beta were pretty much the same.

Gamma and Delta morality rates per 100k were close but Delta was 3x more transmissible so it looked much worst.

Omicron looks more like a bad cold.

All I'm saying is it's unlikely the next mutation flips Omicron into a killer.

Is this true, or at least verifiable in anyway?

I had generally assumed with vaccination, prior infection, and improved treatment that you were just seeing better than baseline outcomes. But not a change to the viruses virulence. The problem with a virus that crippled out healthcare system at 10% penetration, and 20% of the population refusing the most effective mode of treatment, wide spread infection could turn out to be even more deadly, to spite the strides we have made.

[flames_fan_down_under]

There does seem to be some evidence that requires further investigation showing that Omicron is less pathogenic than Delta.

Like this guy who is really smart:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1471941653376253955

and this guy from Japan:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1474759694971727872

Obviously lots to still learn about this.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

There does seem to be some evidence that requires further investigation showing that Omicron is less pathogenic than Delta.

Like this guy who is really smart:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1471941653376253955

and this guy from Japan:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1474759694971727872

Obviously lots to still learn about this.

I think one key thing to note is that although it appears to be somewhere between 10%-70% as virulent as Delta the greater transmission rates will likely lead to higher daily rates of hospitalization than the Delta wave.

Good news long term but the next month will be rough.

[Azure]

Nature has decided it wants us around a little while longer. Of course there is nothing we can do against Omicron anyways, so at least we'll come out of this better once its over.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1475584463941914635

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Azure

Nature has decided it wants us around a little while longer. Of course there is nothing we can do against Omicron anyways, so at least we'll come out of this better once its over.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1475584463941914635

My only caution on this is that it's 15 people in the sample and it also seems to show no improvement for unvaccinated people (which is like 4 people given this tiny sample).

But a good first sign for those of us who are vaccinated.

[MoneyGuy]

Three family members (group of 12) went to Cuba. Three got ill but say they tested negative but I’m sceptical. What are the chances a negative test could be wrong?

[blankall]

Omicron appears to attack tissues in a fundamentally different way, by attacking further up the respiratory chain. The lungs are less targeted, which is likely the reason for omicron being far less dangerous:

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...es-2021-12-15/

Omicron also results in either resolution or severe disease much quicker. We won't have to wait a month to know the effects of omicron.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Three family members (group of 12) went to Cuba. Three got ill but say they tested negative but I’m sceptical. What are the chances a negative test could be wrong?

It's possible the lab messed up that batch of tests. I'm assuming they had molecular tests for the purpose of flying. If three pcr tests were properly done, the odds of all three being false negatives is very low.

Although if they got tested too early, that could also result in false negatives. They will need to get tested within 72 hours of return.

Could all be a moot point anyways. Omicron is generally not transmittable five plus days post initial symptoms. That's why the US is shortening their lockdown protocols.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's possible the lab messed up that batch of tests. I'm assuming they had molecular tests for the purpose of flying. If three pcr tests were properly done, the odds of all three being false negatives is very low.

Although if they got tested too early, that could also result in false negatives. They will need to get tested within 72 hours of return.

Could all be a moot point anyways. Omicron is generally not transmittable five plus days post initial symptoms. That's why the US is shortening their lockdown protocols.

Thank you for that. I understand that PCR tests were done for their return seven days ago. I don't think that all three were false negatives but it seems possible (maybe likely) that at least one was wrong. One of the three has to be retested in order to return to work, but the other two have been home for several days after they returned.