Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[GGG]

Does it lend weight to the theory? Or is it actually worse?

Could Omicron be infecting people who weren’t being infected with Delta and instead getting them sick mildly and then by the same token be just as deadly as before to the delta groups. This would result in mass spread which would show lower hospitalizations and ICU per case but the rapid onset of cases still crushes the healthcare system.

Until we have good data on the age adjusted severity in the unvaccinated we don’t know how this is going to go. From a selfish perspective the under 40 double vaxxed/boosted still looking mild is good news considering we are all getting this varient

[Azure]

Ouch. That isn't going to go over well. There is already a massive shortage of truckers. We can't afford to loss another 5% without the economy being completely wrecked. Where on earth is this coming from? Most provinces are showing good numbers on cases & hospital rates, good vaccine rates, and we have better treatments coming down the line. Omicron makes people hopeful and natural immunity #s are very good.

I don't get it.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

Does it lend weight to the theory? Or is it actually worse?

Could Omicron be infecting people who weren’t being infected with Delta and instead getting them sick mildly and then by the same token be just as deadly as before to the delta groups. This would result in mass spread which would show lower hospitalizations and ICU per case but the rapid onset of cases still crushes the healthcare system.

Yeah, to me that's the most plausible explanation of what we're seeing and I'm puzzled why I haven't really seen it addressed anywhere. This is exactly what you would expect if there was a variant that could evade immunity better than Delta (i.e. infect people who wouldn't normally be infected due to immunity). It'd look like it's more transmissible (because of reduced immunity) while producing relatively milder illness (because of partial immunity in the vaccinated/recovered). But it would still likely significantly increase the population risk and hospital burden compared to Delta.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by GGG

Does it lend weight to the theory? Or is it actually worse?

Could Omicron be infecting people who weren’t being infected with Delta and instead getting them sick mildly and then by the same token be just as deadly as before to the delta groups. This would result in mass spread which would show lower hospitalizations and ICU per case but the rapid onset of cases still crushes the healthcare system.

Until we have good data on the age adjusted severity in the unvaccinated we don’t know how this is going to go. From a selfish perspective the under 40 double vaxxed/boosted still looking mild is good news considering we are all getting this varient

Well in this case it doesn't say at all if any of those infected had previous infection, but that they are all vaccinated.

Like you keep saying, I don't think we should make much of the news other than exactly what it is. Large outbreak doesn't lead to any hospitalized patients / most patients were young / all were vaccinated.

Perhaps it does speak a bit towards Omicron eluding the immunity created by the vaccines though, but even there you can't really be sure.

Still good news. I think people are comparing it to similar outbreaks once Delta came along. I assume it would have lead to a worse result?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

Still good news. I think people are comparing it to similar outbreaks once Delta came along. I assume it would have lead to a worse result?

The fear is that these outbreaks wouldn't have happened in the first place with Delta because vaccines/recovery would have provided fairly significant protection against infection. If Omicron can partially evade that, then it's going to spread much more. So even if the ratio of severe cases to overall cases is lower because of existing immunity, it will still increase the overall risk. Imagine something like the following:

Delta: 1000 cases a day producing 25 hospitalizations
Omicron: 10,000 cases a day producing 100 hospitalizations

Hospitalizations per case are 60% lower in the 2nd scenario, but if that place's healthcare system can only manage 80 patients a day, then you're in trouble.

[Azure]

Yes that does make sense.

And especially in lower vaccinated areas where even natural immunity may be less, it would overload the hospitals if that is the case.

[Azure]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468314069497176071

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468314783959105544

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468315182690676740

[PeteMoss]

Let's hope this is a weakened virus because this looks to be able to infect people like crazy.

[PeteMoss]

Also just confirmed Omicron is in my city. Cluster of 40 cases from a church a few blocks from my place.

[Azure]

I follow too many people working on this.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468325162860826634

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468325166602149893

[jlemire]

Originally Posted by Azure

I follow too many people working on this.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468325162860826634

https://twitter.com/user/status/1468325166602149893

Can someone please talk to me like im a 5 year old lol

[Azure]

Omicron can escape immunity, but not completely.

Vaccination / natural immunity still neutralizes it, but probably not completely.

I think the ACE2 thing means it still infects people the same way as earlier variants did. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Limited data, but part of ongoing trends. Most people who have gotten it have gotten sick, albeit with mild symptoms.

[Harry Lime]

Vaccination rates in Alberta are at 89% for one dose (12+) which would indicate that eventually full vaccination of those 89% would be forthcoming. Canada is across the board roughly similar in terms of numbers.

Mandates in terms of workplaces seem to have done the job in terms of driving vaccination. The outlying 11% unvaccinated are probably not going to be swayed at this point. You might see a small increase when Novavax is released, pushing the number above 90%.

Is there a point to maintaining vaccine mandates for employment at this point? It seems as if the only reason to still have a mandate (or introduce more) are optics. Governments and companies can't be seen as weak.

I could only see continued mandates hurting us at this point, by taking trained people out of important jobs.

[timun]

Originally Posted by jlemire

Can someone please talk to me like im a 5 year old lol

1. Omicron still uses ACE2

ACE2 is an enzyme on the surface membrane of many types of cells in the human body, and it's spike proteins (on the surface of the virus cells) binding to the ACE2 enzyme on the surface of our cells that allows the coronavirus to infect us and reproduce. The gist of "omicron still uses ACE2" is that it uses the same infection pathway as the other variants of SARS-CoV-2 ("Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2", the name of the virus that causes Covid-19 [Coronavirus disease (20)19]). It works the same way.

2. There is a very large drop in neutralization of Omicron by BNT162b2 immunity relative to ancestral virus

"BNT162b2" is just a code name for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, also known by the brand name "Comirnaty". It was called this code name when it was being formulated and tested in trials; "BNT162b1" was another vaccine formulation that BioNTech and Pfizer tested, for example. Basically, where you see "BNT162b2", it means the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

Overall, this statement means the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is not as effective against the omicron variant as it is against older strains of the virus, which is obviously not good. However, that said...

3. Omicron escape from BNT162b2 neutralization is incomplete. Previous infection + vaccination still neutralizes

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is not totally ineffective against omicron. It does work, just not as well as it did against the original strain. The study showed that having been vaccinated and having been infected by SARS-CoV-2 before is still effective against the omicron variant; more effective than Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine alone.

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Vaccination rates in Alberta are at 89% for one dose (12+) which would indicate that eventually full vaccination of those 89% would be forthcoming. Canada is across the board roughly similar in terms of numbers.

Mandates in terms of workplaces seem to have done the job in terms of driving vaccination. The outlying 11% unvaccinated are probably not going to be swayed at this point. You might see a small increase when Novavax is released, pushing the number above 90%.

Is there a point to maintaining vaccine mandates for employment at this point? It seems as if the only reason to still have a mandate (or introduce more) are optics. Governments and companies can't be seen as weak.

I could only see continued mandates hurting us at this point, by taking trained people out of important jobs.

I know of people who have one dose, but do not want the second dose. It is not a given that all those with one dose will get the next one - though most do.

[Boblobla]

Going today to get my kids vaxxed. What are other parents experiences with feeling like a bag of smashed #######s the next day?

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Boblobla

Going today to get my kids vaxxed. What are other parents experiences with feeling like a bag of smashed #######s the next day?

My Kids were extra tired the day of. The next day they were fine.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Boblobla

Going today to get my kids vaxxed. What are other parents experiences with feeling like a bag of smashed #######s the next day?

My are older.

The boy 15 and he was tired the next day.

The girl 17 and she didn't miss a beat.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Boblobla

Going today to get my kids vaxxed. What are other parents experiences with feeling like a bag of smashed #######s the next day?

My 6 year old had no symptoms after 1 shot, and a tiny headache after the 2nd shot. Really nothing to complain about.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Boblobla

Going today to get my kids vaxxed. What are other parents experiences with feeling like a bag of smashed #######s the next day?

My youngest got it yesterday and seems fine.