Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: The unnecessary Dumb Dumb 4th wave

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m reading too much Imgrund Twitter where the infection rates in schools are far higher then in the general community.

So what I haven’t looked at is if cases are going down equally across all age groups or of kids are flat while rest of pop decreases.

All age groups have been decreasing as seen here in the graph of cases by age group: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...haracteristics

[Monahammer]

anecdotal but I personally know 4 people who have reported feeling ill after independent thanksgiving gatherings. Two work colleagues and two friends. One has already tested positive. Need to wait another couple weeks before we declare victory here.

[Azure]

Bigger concern is if they are vaccinated or not.

More and more we are seeing that vaccination is the key to everything. People will still test positive, and we'll still see cases. But it should be more flu like, or even less severe.

Hate using the flu comparison, but there it is.

I suppose natural immunity will play a part as well, IF people actually have the proper antibodies needed, which from what I have read is completely up in the air at this point.

Need to be vaccinated and healthy. All the things that doctors have been pounding away at for years that people have ignored are now coming into play.

Obesity.
Lack of exercise.
Heart Disease.
Diabetes.
Etc.

All play a very important role in terms of how sick one becomes.

[peter12]

I exercise a lot but I'm still a fatty. What's my risk?!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

All age groups have been decreasing as seen here in the graph of cases by age group: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...haracteristics

Thanks,

Looking at the per 100k charts you can see the lag where the general pop peaked first and the kids kept going up. So the affect I was concerned with already happened.

That chart is an interesting way to show the effectiveness of vaccination as you can see the ages most affected by Covid as the vaccine roll out occurred.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GGG

150,000 infections or so in wave 4 is about a 3.5% increase in immunity.
General decrease in contacts just by raising the public profile.

Vaccination probably helps somewhat as that Israeli study showed the vaccine was having an affect after 1 week post single dose but that was non-delta. (The study showed and increase in infection rate for the first 7 days, probably behavioural, followed by dropping infection rates which over came the initial rise after 14 days)

The key thing is that it doesn’t take much to change the direction of growth. 10 people infect 9 vs 10 people infect 11.

I’m somewhat worried this is a false bottom and schools are going to explode increasing overall cases but I haven’t looked for evidence to prove or disprove that.

Going from quite literally nothing in terms of health measures to where we're at now is comparable to jumping from 0-100 on the Kenney scale of insanity. People asking 'what restrictions' really need to take that into account. Preventing unvaccinated to freely roam, infect and contract Covid is the big thing helping to drive down the R value but the increase in infections you note is certainly a factor as well.

Having kids in the system, there has never been an instance where mass outbreaks have been happening until way after the community rates are already completely FUBAR. I don't think there is anything to worry about on the school front so long as AB does infact keep cases down now with the REP and other restrictions in place.

Either way, the 12-19 age group has decent 2 dose uptake now, and the 5-11s will start adding to that within the next 3-4 weeks. So long as you don't go repealing the REP program and removing masking, we do have a something to stir the drink in terms of keeping things open and protecting the health system.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by peter12

I exercise a lot but I'm still a fatty. What's my risk?!

I thought I was exercising, until I made the conscious decision to burn 1,000 calories per day at least 5 times per week. I've lost over 20 pounds, especially around the mid-section.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by peter12

I exercise a lot but I'm still a fatty. What's my risk?!

There have been some studies which have tried to estimate the impact of regular exercise on the chances of developing severe COVID while adjusting for comorbidities. They found that even after controlling for differences in age, race, sex, BMI, comorbidities, smokers vs. nonsmokers, etc., the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality was over 50% lower in people who exercised regularly (2+ hrs per week) compared to people who did not.

[Torture]

Which is a catchier name? Winter of Vigilance or Best Summer Ever?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1448649759883890701

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Torture

Which is a catchier name? Winter of Vigilance or Best Summer Ever?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1448649759883890701

We went from a lighthearted teen novel to a ####ty Game of Thrones sequel.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by opendoor

There have been some studies which have tried to estimate the impact of regular exercise on the chances of developing severe COVID while adjusting for comorbidities. They found that even after controlling for differences in age, race, sex, BMI, comorbidities, smokers vs. nonsmokers, etc., the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality was over 50% lower in people who exercised regularly (2+ hrs per week) compared to people who did not.

This really NEEDS to get more attention. Get off your devices and go for a walk or jog.

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/19/1099

The US Physical Activity Guidelines established a goal of 150 min/week of MVPA (like a brisk walk) to maximise health benefits.3 This amount can be accrued in small units, making achievement of the guidelines within reach for nearly all people. Other studies have shown that on average, Americans have at least 4–6 hours each day of leisure time, the majority of which is devoted to sedentary activities, particularly electronic media.21 The findings here provide additional rationale and motivation for individuals to be more physically active, as well as for communities to design environments that are more conducive to routine PA,22 23 especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

We found that consistently meeting PA guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced odds for severe COVID-19 among infected adults. Specifically, when compared with those who reported being consistently inactive, those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines had lower odds of being hospitalised, requiring ICU admission and dying from COVID-19. Even activity levels that did not meet the PA guidelines were significantly associated with reduced odds of hospitalisation and death. It is notable that being consistently inactive was a stronger risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes than any of the underlying medical conditions and risk factors identified by CDC except for age and a history of organ transplant.1 In fact, physical inactivity was the strongest risk factor across all outcomes, compared with the commonly cited modifiable risk factors, including smoking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and cancer.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by peter12

I exercise a lot but I'm still a fatty. What's my risk?!

Getting lower. Beards act as an air filter.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

We went from a lighthearted teen novel to a ####ty Game of Thrones sequel.

Not even a sequel, just season 7/8. Jason Kenney is to covid what D&D were to GOT.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by troutman

I thought I was exercising, until I made the conscious decision to burn 1,000 calories per day at least 5 times per week. I've lost over 20 pounds, especially around the mid-section.

I've only seen you a few times previously at your Thursday afternoon hockey pre-covid and I don't recall you having an extra 20 pounds to lose. You must be a toothpick now.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by opendoor

There have been some studies which have tried to estimate the impact of regular exercise on the chances of developing severe COVID while adjusting for comorbidities. They found that even after controlling for differences in age, race, sex, BMI, comorbidities, smokers vs. nonsmokers, etc., the risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality was over 50% lower in people who exercised regularly (2+ hrs per week) compared to people who did not.

Honestly, that is mind-boggling.

And while I wasn't necessarily looking for this information, I do find it strange that I haven't read about it up till now considering I do try to keep with COVID related news.

Our messaging on this has not been good. People need to be aware of this.

[81MC]

To be fair...

Inactivity has been repeatedly and consistently identified as a serious risk factor for most of those Co-mos for years. Intentional blindness if anyone didn’t know. Who’d have thought that the same lifestyle choices that increase your risk for most severe negative health outcomes is also a significant risk factor for others?

The messaging was flawed from the start. We closed down parks and rec facilities for children, stopped people from having any community support for healthy living, and had masks distributed via fast food drive thru for gods sake.

Covid is serious. Poor lifestyle choices are more serious, whether it’s ‘contagious’ or not.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

Honestly, that is mind-boggling.

And while I wasn't necessarily looking for this information, I do find it strange that I haven't read about it up till now considering I do try to keep with COVID related news.

Our messaging on this has not been good. People need to be aware of this.

I mean, it's not news that regular exercise has huge health benefits. It can significantly reduce the risk of far more dangerous things than COVID (cancer, heart disease, etc.), so if risk reduction for those isn't enough to motivate people to exercise regularly, then reducing COVID risk likely won't either. So I don't know that it's a problem of messaging, but more of peoples' motivation and lack of time/amenities for many people to devote to regular exercise.

[Azure]

This was our messaging.

[Scroopy Noopers]

…. Well ^ that’s a meme…. Getting outside and taking walks was repeated constantly.


We had to twist the arms of 30% of the population to take 30 mins out of one day to get a vaccine.

How many people were going to realistically up their exercise game for Covid protection as the main driver?

[MRCboicgy]

Originally Posted by 81MC

To be fair...

Inactivity has been repeatedly and consistently identified as a serious risk factor for most of those Co-mos for years. Intentional blindness if anyone didn’t know. Who’d have thought that the same lifestyle choices that increase your risk for most severe negative health outcomes is also a significant risk factor for others?

The messaging was flawed from the start. We closed down parks and rec facilities for children, stopped people from having any community support for healthy living, and had masks distributed via fast food drive thru for gods sake.

Covid is serious. Poor lifestyle choices are more serious, whether it’s ‘contagious’ or not.

Not to mention the mental health toll of not being active (and many other reasons too). But I generally made honest-to-god attempts to get a good 30-minute workout every day, and having that prevented that did more to harm to my mental well being than anything.
I mean I was stressed doing an outdoor workout around my neighbourhood - as it kinda felt like I was running an ####-fighting ring or something.