Summer 2015 Prospect Ranking - Round 3

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Did you watch Ortio this season in the NHL and come to the conclusion that he's terrible, or are you just using stats? Honest question.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If you think Ortio has been terrible in the NHL and average in the AHL, then you... weren't paying attention.

Also, the sample size for his NHL save percentage is the size of a pea. Just removing his two most recent games played (one of which was playing injured behind AHLer defensemen like Ramage, Kulak, Engelland, and Wotherspoon against NHLers, and the other of which was in a building the Flames get destroyed in every single time, just ask Hiller or Ramo their success rates in the Honda Center) and his NHL career save percentage jumps to .917 which would place him in the upper echelon of NHL starters. Two games later, neither of which could possibly be considered his fault if you actually watch them, he's down to a "terrible" .899. Hmm

And let me guess, Jon Gillies is better than Carey Price too, since Price's save percentage in his series vs Tampa Bay was only .896

Like I said, Ortio has already played basically as much as Irving did at the same age. The sample size was large enough to cut him off.

Gillies probably had a few awful games during the season this year. If he hadn't had those bad games, he could have 93.5% instead of 93%. People are saying that Gillies didn't perform well in the finals. They are forgetting that he was playing against the most offensive team in the league. Yet he still won.
Bad games are included in the stats for a reason. Ortio's last game of the season was against a sub-par Winnipeg team that had already clinched the playoffs.

And the NCAA is not far behind the AHL in terms of quality of play. 93% in the NCAA is much more impressive than 91.2% in the AHL. Not to mention Gillies is quite a bit younger.

I'm not saying Ortio is a terrible prospect. I'm just saying Gillies is a great prospect. IMO he's among the best goaltending prospects in hockey.

[GranteedEV]

If you're gonna keep pointing to flawed stats, then:

NHL Ortio is 8-6-0 with a 2.52 GAA
NHL Irving was 3-4-4 with a 3.25 GAA

How is that remotely "the same"?

And yes the AHL is well ahead of NCAA. That's why Hellybuyck went from .952 and .941 save percentages in Gillies' conference to .921 in the AHL. It's why Doug Carr went from .928 and .936 save percentages to Ortio's backup's backup.

Lastly, did you watch the NCAA championship game? Gillies let in an absolutely amateur goal to start, and then failed to make a pretty crucial save. His team was down a goal late and looked like they were about to lose as the BU Terriers had gone into shutdown mode. The Friars were beyond lucky when the opposing goalie let in a weaksauce traumatic goal from beyond the blue line and then momentum shifted. Gillies only had to be good for about 7 or 8 minutes in th whole game to win it. Lastly the best apparent save Gillies made turned out to not have touched his stick in the first place as it actually deflected off the BU player's teammate's skate or something along those lines.

[oldschoolcalgary]

ummm... the AHL is way better than the NCAA...

that's why one is full of guys actually earning a paycheck playing hockey and why 80% of the NCAA players go on to jobs that do not include hockey as a career path

Gilles may be a great prospect but comparing shooting %s of NCAA players and projecting that into the NHL seems to be pretty suspect

[Drury18]

Ortio - 15 NHL GP, 8 NHL Wins, 1 NHL Shutouts
Gillies - 0 NHL GP, 0 NHL Wins, 0 NHL Shutouts

Obviously Gillies is the better prospect here and Ortio is worthless...

[1qqaaz]

Well, I guess this is the only stat that matters:

Gillies 121 votes
Ortio 71 votes

[Da_Chief]

You're all about stats eh? 50 random votes on an internet forum concludes it. Oreo sucks and Gillies is the next one.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Drury18

Ortio - 15 NHL GP, 8 NHL Wins, 1 NHL Shutouts
Gillies - 0 NHL GP, 0 NHL Wins, 0 NHL Shutouts

Obviously Gillies is the better prospect here and Ortio is worthless...

Connor McDavid: 0 total career points
Josh Jooris: 24 points in 60 games

Exactly the same logic.

I would still probably vote for Ortio next on the poll. I just don't think his track record is as consistently outstanding as that of Jon Gillies.

I really like how Ortio has improved his English to such a great degree. It shows pretty good character. His contribution to the team this year, in terms of wins and losses, helped the Flames make the playoffs. He was the best Flames pick of the 2009 draft.

[Drury18]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I really like how Ortio has improved his English to such a great degree.

And this is where I have my proof you have no clue what you are taking about.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Well, I guess this is the only stat that matters:

Gillies 121 votes
Ortio 71 votes

How about a grown-up rebuttal to my post instead of a "popularity" dodge?

Connor McDavid: 0 total career points
Josh Jooris: 24 points in 60 games

Exactly the same logic.

No, that's just a strawman. Those extremes don't describe the difference between Ortio and Gillies. It's more like:

Sam Bennett: 5 career points in 12GP, 11 of which were in the playoffs as a top 6 forward.
Mitch Marner: 0 career points

And then suggesting Mitch Marner is already a better prospect than Sam Bennett because he put up more points in Junior last year.

[Eric]

Went with Ferland again. Between the two goalies though, I think I prefer Ortio. His style of play reminds me very much of Kipper. To be fair though, I haven't watched Gilles play much at all.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Gillies for me. To stay a consistent .930 for 3 straight years in the NCAA is a tough thing to do.

[Itse]

Here's some comments on the fuzzy logic with which I rank guys.

Potential star forwards are judged on ceiling. It's not that hard to say who these guys are, as almost all NHL star forwards put up high points in previous levels and most were high draft picks.

For goalies and defensemen I put little faith in "ceiling", as in my experience those tend to be very unreliable projections. So mostly it becomes about how close they are. That's why it's Ortio over Gillies for me. I don't even try to compare them to each other.

(This would be somewhat different if we had real blue-chip defensive prospects, but I don't see for example Kyllington as one... maybe later.)

With forwards beyond the star level you want a steady flow of ELC:s and RFA:s to keep the team affordable, so likelihood of making it is again relevant. The difference to goalies/defenseman is that it's a bit easier to guess from further away which guys are going to make it and what kind of an impact they might have. In essence, with forward prospects you can add "floor" to the equation.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Gillies for me. To stay a consistent .930 for 3 straight years in the NCAA is a tough thing to do.

It's really not. Especially on such a tight defensive team. Some other NCAA goalies i've heard of.

Zane McIntyre (Bos 6th 2010), the last 3 years are 0.92, 0.926, 0.929
CJ Motte (Undrafted), the last 4 years, 0.92, 0.928, 0.927, 0.925
Alex Lyon (Undrafted), the last 3 years, 0.939, 0.918
Evan Cowley (Flo 2013 4th), last 2 years 0.924, 0.949
Matt O'Connor (Undrafted), last 3 years 0.927, 0.920, 0.910
Thatcher Demko (Van 2nd 2014), 0.925, 0.919

Buncha guys have some great numbers. Some rookies who posted numbers in 0.930s as well.

I like Gillies and hope he turns out great. But NCAA numbers aren't a great indication to go off of. Bishop in his 3 years was 0.908/0.923/0.920. Quick in his 2 years was 0.929/0.920. I'm sure there are several names like above who posted really great numbers and found no success in the pro game.

He's looked shaky at the WJC and the NCAA tourny. I hope he challenged Oreo to be better but right now Oreo is easily ahead.