After Sven, which prospect are you most optimistic for?

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I don't think any of our prospects have the ability to do what Justin did regardless.

no, they haven't. I think the loophole was for players who didn't go to college immediately after being drafted, but spent another year somewhere else ... Schultz played in the BCHL for a year before he went to college, Blake Wheeler played in the USHL for a year. Those guys then could turn UFA if they left college after three years ... that applies to no Flames college prospect. Ramage was already playing college hockey when he was drafted, and Gaudreau, Jankowski, Gillies and Deblouw all went straight to college. It would have applied to Nick Larson though, who played a year in the USHL after being drafted by Calgary in 2008 ... but it wouldn't have been a huge loss.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

Without the diving, ###### attitude, and all that other stuff, Reinhart looks like he's going to be a good two-way guy who can put the puck in the net. Even though he doesn't have a goal this year, he's had so many chances and probably should have at least two goals (just last weekend, Scrivens made an acrobatic stick save to steal a goal from Max).

I hate saying this, but Kesler is way, way more talented than that. Kesler was close to a PPG player in the AHL at Reinhart's age (though, we could argue that Kesler had some favourable situations while Reinhart has to play behind some real offensive lines). Reinhart looks like ceiling of a bottom 6 or 2A forward who can chip in as needed...that top end scoring we see from Kesler probably is something Reinhart will never achieve (I'd love to have him prove me wrong). Like the guy...but I don't think I see the same offensive potential you do. Then again, you see him play way more often than I do. I could be way off base here.

I see him a bit like a Glencross type of player with a 35-40 point total...3 zones, all situations. The type of player I think we'd all like to have more of.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by kirant

I see him a bit like a Glencross type of player with a 35-40 point total...3 zones, all situations. The type of player I think we'd all like to have more of.

Glencross is a good comparison, but with more discipline, better defensive abilities, and stick skills for days.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by kirant

I hate saying this, but Kesler is way, way more talented than that. Kesler was close to a PPG player in the AHL at Reinhart's age

No he wasn't. his best season was 58pts in 78gp and career PPG is .62

Even with his 2 big seasons in the NHL his PPG is still only .60 PPG or about 49 pts per season.

To say Reinhart can't become a 50 pt player is wrong.

[Miniac]

So exciting to have so many promising prospects for once!

Loving this thread

[Calgary4LIfe]

Not that he is in the Top 5 or anything, but Ferland is a player that I am very optimistic (perhaps 'wishful' is a better word).

We need a guy that plays very physical and can be an intimidating presence on the ice, as well as chip in offensively and be responsible defensively. Hopefully he becomes a regular on the Heat the rest of the way through, and develops into that player for the Flames.

Aside from the 'big ones' like Jankowski, Baertschi, Gaudreau, Horak and Reinhart, I think Granlund and Ramage both receive very little attention.

Ramage seems to be that high hockey IQ defensive defencemen (and a leader!) who is great at getting the puck out of the zone, and laying a devastating hit now and then. Seems to be flying under everyone's radar since he isn't a 'sexy' pick, but could very well become a future Flames' captain and part of a future core.

Granlund is a player that I am very much interested in. Great numbers last year, but many peg that as a product of playing with his 'world renowned' older brother. Granlund to his credit is a pretty slick player, who is apparently slightly taller and a better skater than his brother. Often there is one 'good' brother, and one 'bad' brother (Gretzky, Lindros, Bure - though I for one thought Valeri wasn't a slouch at all), but there are also names like Statsny, Staal and lately (though still too soon to predict) Reinhart. I look at him as the Flames' biggest wildcard.

I also disagree with Granlund either making top 6 or bust. He isn't a tiny guy. Lots of hocky IQ in this prospect as well, and he could very well transition into a checker with some scoring ability? Too many people are way too quick with the 'top 6 or bust' label. Gaudreau I would peg 'top 6 or bust' more than Granlund, as Gaudreau's size makes it HARDER (not impossible, but just harder) to earn a role as a checker in the NHL. Granlund - though not 'huge', is not a tiny guy. I believe Granlund is also eligible for the WJC this year, correct?

Byron is a guy that I didn't think much of when we got him, and I still don't think much of after seeing him play in the NHL. He definitely COULD make it, and he didn't look really out of place, but he was 'replaceable'. Not sure that makes sense. I was hoping to see more 'skill' - he has lots of skill, but for his size he will need to be 'super-skilled' out there, I think. Rather have a bigger checker that can be more physical out there in a bottom 6 role. I hope he does develop and earns his way onto Flames. I know he has been injured so far this season, but I still rank him pretty low on the Flames' prospect list.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by saskflames69

Nathan MacKinnon

Too soon?

Dude is your handle saskoilers69??? no right?

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Good post Calgary4Life.

I sort of see Granlund as becoming a Mikael Samuelsson-type player if he makes it to the NHL, which would be great in my eyes.

Ferland, I'll admit I've lost a tiny bit of optimism for up until I heard Ward's comments on Friday about him simply being a young man who has to learn to be a pro (i.e., fitness issues, off-ice lifestyle, etc.). Ferland is on record as saying he wants to emulate Milan Lucic. If he can do that, he'll become my favourite Flame instantly.

[MrMastodonFarm]

The Flames have three high skill prospects in Gadreau, Bearschi and Jankowski I think either of these guys are number 1. Eventually I will learn how to spell all three properly.

[Bertuzzied]

Hmmm just looking over the Heat roster and it's pretty awesome having your top 2 scorers the youngest and 3rd youngest on the team.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

The Flames have three high skill prospects in Gadreau, Bearschi and Jankowski I think either of these guys are number 1. Eventually I will learn how to spell all three properly.

I like Horak. so easy to spell!

[kirant]

Fair enough I rounded (0.8 to 1.0). I'm just thinking there's a large difference between Kesler's offensive ability and Reinhart's. Don't get me wrong, I'm really excited for the guy. I don't think we have the same lightning the Canucks caught when they drafted our favourite diver.

Originally Posted by T@T

Even with his 2 big seasons in the NHL his PPG is still only .60 PPG or about 49 pts per season.

To say Reinhart can't become a 50 pt player is wrong.

I think that's a currently skewed stat based on how early Kesler jumped in. Kesler was given a permanent NHL position at 21, limited in playtime to pretty much a PK expert (~10 min/game EV). Similar to Manny Malholtra last year, it's not that he didn't produce because he couldn't...but that he was in a situation where no player would produce well. When he developed into a real two-way forward and reached his top potential, in my mind (15+ minutes/game EV + PP), he has an averaged scoring rate of 59.6 points/82 games.

I don't think Reinhart will show the same talent and be a permanent fixture next year, while playing 50% of the PK time (Kesler had about 2:30 in PK/game in his first year with 5:09 in PK/game for the team). I also don't think he'll have the same potential of being a 60 point forward, even if he played second fiddle to the Sedins.

I'd argue Reinhart has an outside chance of 50 points and is probably his absolute ceiling. The same way I think we could say Brayden McNabb of the Sabres has an outside chance of a top pairing player or Jankowski has an outside chance of being, as Feaster put it, "the best player in the draft". The realistic top end I think Reinhart can reach though is between 30-40 points. With no real objective measuring stick and nothing but my arbitrary guessing, I'd say he's likely to reach that potential and be a 15G-20A forward with a penchant for getting key goals.

[kehatch]

In terms of players with high end upside (in order):

• Gaudreau
• Jankoski
• Granlund

In terms of players with high chance of being meaningful NHLers (in order):

• Reinhart
• Horak
• Bouma

Guys a ways off that intrigue me (not included above):

• Arnold
• Sieloff
• Gillies

I assumed Baertschi, Brodie, Ramo, Backlund, and Cervenka were excluded from the list.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by kirant

I think that's a currently skewed stat based on how early Kesler jumped in. Kesler was given a permanent NHL position at 21, limited in playtime to pretty much a PK expert (~10 min/game EV). Similar to Manny Malholtra last year, it's not that he didn't produce because he couldn't...but that he was in a situation where no player would produce well. When he developed into a real two-way forward and reached his top potential, in my mind (15+ minutes/game EV + PP), he has an averaged scoring rate of 59.6 points/82 games.

I don't think Reinhart will show the same talent and be a permanent fixture next year, while playing 50% of the PK time (Kesler had about 2:30 in PK/game in his first year with 5:09 in PK/game for the team). I also don't think he'll have the same potential of being a 60 point forward, even if he played second fiddle to the Sedins.

I'd argue Reinhart has an outside chance of 50 points and is probably his absolute ceiling. The same way I think we could say Brayden McNabb of the Sabres has an outside chance of a top pairing player or Jankowski has an outside chance of being, as Feaster put it, "the best player in the draft". The realistic top end I think Reinhart can reach though is between 30-40 points. With no real objective measuring stick and nothing but my arbitrary guessing, I'd say he's likely to reach that potential and be a 15G-20A forward with a penchant for getting key goals.

According to QuantHockey less 70% of NHL players record 100-points in an entire career.

http://www.quanthockey.com/Distribut...reerPoints.php

The average PPG production in the NHL is roughly 0.4. If you estimate that climbs to 0.5 if isolated to the forward position that means the average NHL forward is putting up less then 40-points per season (most don't play 80-games).

In fact last season only about 115 forwards (with 50 or more games) put up a .6 (50-point pace) or better PPG average. That is less then 4 per team, or roughly 30%.

In terms of players that are actually healthy enough to do it: there were 95 last season that actually reached 50-points (about 25%).

So if you consider that 70% of NHL players never stick around long enough to earn 100-points in a career, and for those that do only 25% of them actually put up 50-points in a given season (let alone consistently), then yes Reinhart is a stretch to be consistent 50-point forward.

But then again so is every NHL prospect outside of the few elite.

Bottom line is Reinhart looks like he could be an everyday NHLer. That is a win for a 3-rounder. And there is no reason to stereotype him as a bottom 6 guy. This isn't Bouma we are talking about. Reinhart has put up good offensive numbers during his career.

I think the chances are good he ends up capping as a 3-line guy. But that said there isn't any reason to project a ceiling on him at this point.

[saskflames69]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

Dude is your handle saskoilers69??? no right?

It is now bcsenators83.

[Henry Fool]

To me, of the IFK guys, Ortio is more interesting than Granlund, but I'm not sure he'll still be Flames property when he's ready for the NHL. Ortio has tremendous upside but it's not going to manifest overnight.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by saskflames69

It is now bcsenators83.

alright mods. do your thing! hehe

[GreenLantern]

I second or third or whatever it is on, the pick of Reinhart. This kid seems to be able to play in any situation and will make a great center for the Flames one day. I can see him slotting into the third line role perfectly.

Gaudreau looks great in the NCAA, we will see how that transitions into pro over the next few years.

[Galakanokis]

Any thoughts on how Breen or Lamb are playing? Surprised to see a fairly old D playing on the Heat.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

To me, of the IFK guys, Ortio is more interesting than Granlund, but I'm not sure he'll still be Flames property when he's ready for the NHL. Ortio has tremendous upside but it's not going to manifest overnight.

I actually think Ortio is the goalie of the future for the Flames, but also think the Flames won't keep him around long enough. Who really knows how goalies develop in time, but I have always been impressed how Ortio does in big games.