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Old 05-08-2017, 10:40 AM   #181
Fozzie_DeBear
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I think microgrids are another option for the 3rd world which is another example of skipping whole generations of technology (like the cellphone vs landline).

Regarding the role of policy artificially inflating demand for EV's...there may be something to that. We shall see if the products can be compelling with little public subsidization.

Not sure what difference China's existing IC market means...you have to look at the rate and direction of change.

I shared this article with some professors at the U of C who focus on innovation, the one who has replied so far basically said that the 'writing is on the wall' and that Alberta's business model is still focused upon meeting the needs of the transportation sector that has existed since Henry Ford's era (selling the fuel). It has been a nice long run, but we had better prepare for the next phase.
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:48 AM   #182
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Also, I would not be surprised to start to see Chinese companies start to emerge in North America, not unlike how Korean companies did about 30 years ago.

BYD is one example you will probably see soon.
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:55 AM   #183
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I can't believe we are up to nine pages. If there was any merit to this automakers would be scrambling to spit out EV's as the walls would be crumbling around them. Instead it's business as usual as it is will oil companies.
This post is so astoundingly out of touch that I'm actually giddy over it. It will not age well.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:07 AM   #184
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This post is so astoundingly out of touch that I'm actually giddy over it. It will not age well.
Neither will the poster. Bazinga!!!
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:10 AM   #185
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I'm having trouble extrapolating this chart. Can someone help?

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Old 05-08-2017, 11:17 AM   #186
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I'm having trouble extrapolating this chart. Can someone help?

I believe it is amount of $ you would have to spend to get a standard amount of energy. It would roughly akin to saying how much does it cost to get a litre of gas (a 'standard' amount of energy) and seeing the cost drop year after year.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:17 AM   #187
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One of my friends has a Nissan Leaf and uses it for all his day-to-day commuting and errands. He absolutely loves it, but the only major drawback is that he is pretty much limited to round trips of 100 km or less. Public charging areas are still rare at this point. He has another gasoline vehicle for longer trips. I am considering getting a Leaf as well.

I could see a similar situation with automated cars for the first while where people rely on them for most things, but still have a back-up vehicle for trips or for going off the beaten path.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:43 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear View Post
I believe it is amount of $ you would have to spend to get a standard amount of energy. It would roughly akin to saying how much does it cost to get a litre of gas (a 'standard' amount of energy) and seeing the cost drop year after year.
Batteries are akin to gas tanks. The gasoline that goes into them is akin to electrical energy that goes into them

So I think it's more akin to $ per litre to build a gas tank of X number of liters in size. The cost to build electrical energy storage devices (i.e. batteries) is dropping year over year.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:46 AM   #189
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Hey, can you explain how the bylaws work in Calgary for EV Bikes?

From what I read before, powered vehicles are technically not allowed on pathways in the city? And at a certain power/speed, full face helmets are required? The laws might be a bit draconian but I can see where this makes sense as some of these bikes can get very fast.
http://www.calgary.ca/CSPS/Parks/Pag...n-Calgary.aspx


  • Pedal assist electric bicycles are allowed on pathways, except where bicycles are prohibited
  • Power on demand electric bicycles are not allowed on pathways
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:49 AM   #190
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Minivans are cheaper, and better in almost every category than SUVs. Yet people will spend twice as much on an SUV largely because of image. I wonder how that human aspect will play into the whole personal vehicle ownership decision.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:51 AM   #191
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One example of how Alberta could pivot is to exploit lithium deposits...

http://ags.aer.ca/lithium

Lithium can be found in oil wastewater...

http://www.jwnenergy.com/article/201...ds-wastewater/

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...-tonne-lithium

Assuming ALL the deposits are exploited and the price of lithium per tonne stays at $10k USD.

There is about $3.7B worth of value in oil wastewater. Obviously this is not the real value, but its thought provoking.
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:53 AM   #192
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How do EV's work for road trips? What if you're stranded in the middle of nowhere with a dead battery? Is there a way to get the car running again with some type of mobile recharger like you would with a Jerry can of gas?
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Old 05-08-2017, 11:57 AM   #193
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How do EV's work for road trips? What if you're stranded in the middle of nowhere with a dead battery? Is there a way to get the car running again with some type of mobile recharger like you would with a Jerry can of gas?
https://www.freewiretech.com/ev-charging/

Harder than a can of gas, but you could still have a big battery on a trailer that could be delivered by AMA or tow truck company etc.

EDIT: https://electrek.co/2016/09/06/aaa-e...harging-truck/
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:01 PM   #194
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How do EV's work for road trips? What if you're stranded in the middle of nowhere with a dead battery? Is there a way to get the car running again with some type of mobile recharger like you would with a Jerry can of gas?
It takes a lot more planning for sure. The new Leafs get you about 180 km on a full charge and take about 7.5 hours to charge completely.

Not a practical way of doing road trips yet.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:01 PM   #195
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I think microgrids are another option for the 3rd world which is another example of skipping whole generations of technology (like the cellphone vs landline).
IMO, the microgrid is only a step towards the end goal of a pervasive widespread electrical grid that is cheaper and more reliable, especially one that relies on unreliable wind and solar. When environmental groups extol the virtue of microgrids, all their examples are for things that require little energy, like a light bulb, when it's very obvious that the developing world will want energy for heating, cooking, refrigeration, HVAC, TV, computers, etc.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:09 PM   #196
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This is something I've been thinking about more and more. Ignoring the autonomous aspect and just looking at electric transitions I think it is something we(as Albertans) need to be very concerned with. We have just seen how a very small disturbance in the supply/demand balance can devastate our economy. I'm kind of amazed at how many in this thread have missed that. We don't need a total transition to electric to be a threat, just a few percent change. So will that be in 10 years? 15? We know it is coming, it is just the time frame that is uncertain.
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It's coming and it's coming fast. Personally, as someone in the oil industry, I find myself thinking what happens in 15 years? What is our plan? As a province 2030 is not that far off to be making long term strategic plans for. Expecting oil to continue to be the most affordable fuel for all days from now to forever is foolhardy. We may experience a price bounce in the next decade oil back to $100, or $150 as the less developed world continues its trajectory, but it will be short lived.

Like I said, a small imbalance is all it takes to devastate Alberta. That's not conjecture, it's fact. It would be nice if we prepared for it.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:12 PM   #197
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This post is so astoundingly out of touch that I'm actually giddy over it. It will not age well.
It's not out of touch and being giddy about the death of the Alberta economy isn't exactly something I would be proud of. I pay a lot of attention to the automobile industry and if their impending doom was imminent we would be seeing considerably more action.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:12 PM   #198
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IMO, the microgrid is only a step towards the end goal of a pervasive widespread electrical grid that is cheaper and more reliable, especially one that relies on unreliable wind and solar. When environmental groups extol the virtue of microgrids, all their examples are for things that require little energy, like a light bulb, when it's very obvious that the developing world will want energy for heating, cooking, refrigeration, HVAC, TV, computers, etc.
Expecting the 3rd world to replicate consumption patterns like the 1st world is a recipe for disaster.

Just curious, is your username a tribute to a 1999 Honda Accord?
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:14 PM   #199
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I'm not that surprised you don't get the point. Market cap is a very good indicator of investor confidence, and how well they think the company is going to perform in the foreseeable future. The fact the Tesla does have such a high market cap is a good indicator of where people see not just the fortunes of Tesla going, but the fortunes of the whole auto industry. The days of the combustion engine being under the hood of most cars is coming to an end. Alberta needs to find a new market for its fossil fuels.
Oh, I got the point. At the same time, there are weed companies with market caps well over $1 billion because of a hype bubble.

More specifically, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish on Tesla. But that doesn't change the fact that Tesla currently holds only about 30% of the EV market, which is itself only 1% of car sales. So when someone scoffs at a prediction for mass adoption of EV, pointing out investor hype for a company with less than one third of one percent market share doesn't actually defeat that claim.
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:15 PM   #200
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Here is how small the gap was between supply and demand that triggered the massive drop in prices:
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