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View Poll Results: Should we do a prospect ranking analysis?
Yes 62 100.00%
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Old 10-18-2007, 12:57 PM   #1
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had another inquiry into doing our annual prospect ranking list again ... I'm going to put it to a poll to help me to decide to go forward or not.

We usually do it in teh summer, but I didn't get around to it.

Takes some work but I'm for it to keep the continuity going if there's interest.
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:05 PM   #2
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For sure! Especially with that HF list a couple threads below generating so much disagreement/discussion.

I forget how we did them in the past... Would a series of online polls (a la West and East top 15 polls) be the easiest way this time?
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:05 PM   #3
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I'd love to see it. It also helps that we have members in Quad City that seem to be pretty active as well.
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:05 PM   #4
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It will make for a good mid-season activity. And more users will be around to understand and analyse the reports coming from the farm and around the WHL.
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:12 PM   #5
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I really enjoy looking back at previous prospect rankings and see what people thought in the past. I think it's a great idea.
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:34 PM   #6
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Great idea.

Especially considering how messed up the HF one was.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:04 PM   #7
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First of all, I think you use a breakdown of categories into potential vs. pro-readiness. Secondly, you pare down the list to a workable ten or a dozen players at most. Thirdly (and this is an idea I've been kicking around) is refraining from assigning numerical ratings. Maybe a list in alphabetical order?
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:14 PM   #8
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I think we kind of covered the same thing the past few years Reggie ... I call it Potential and Likelihood which I guess is a little different than "readiness" but along the same bain.

Either way I think it covers it, and you have to keep the analysis the same or it fails in year to year comparison in my mind.

Here's last year's result btw http://www.calgarypuck.com/Future.htm

I like the wide open element to it ... I think it speaks to a prospect to some degree if he's obscure (not on everyone's list) but highly rated by those that include him. Makes it more interesting if he breaks through.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:15 PM   #9
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I do like how HF presents the prospects in 'depth chart' type format - it gives some insight to what positions are strongest/weakest.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:18 PM   #10
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Yes but I'd like to see it done mid-season - gives us a chance to make more accurate assessments with half a season completed.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:22 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Either way I think it covers it, and you have to keep the analysis the same or it fails in year to year comparison in my mind.
I'm not so interested in maintaining a legacy of applied criteria if the methodology can be improved upon. There is still a tendency for these sorts of things to devolve into popularity contests (which I suppose is fair enough because it's fan-driven).

Since so many variables come into play in crystal-balling, I think concentrating on the individual's own attributes as opposed to lining up a group in an orderly, descending row might be a fresh approach.

Tilley privately suggested a good idea to me: Using "riser" and "dropper" arrows.

Last edited by Reggie Dunlop; 10-18-2007 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:45 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop View Post
I'm not so interested in maintaining a legacy of applied criteria if the methodology can be improved upon. There is still a tendency for these sorts of things to devolve into popularity contests (which I suppose is fair enough because it's fan-driven).

Since so many variables come into play in crystal-balling, I think concentrating on the individual's own attributes as opposed to lining up a group in an orderly, descending row might be a fresh approach.

Tilley privately suggested a good idea to me: Using "riser" and "dropper" arrows.
It's not a list though ... they have to rate each on potential and likelihood, not "give me your favourite future Flames in order"

and I am interested in keeping a legacy of applied criteria, that's the most valuable thing in this in my mind when you get to look back on say a Brent Krahn (drafted 2000) and his roll through future analysis history. Useless if you have different rules each year.
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:59 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
It's not a list though ... they have to rate each on potential and likelihood, not "give me your favourite future Flames in order"
But at the end of the day, that's how the compiled information is presented.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
and I am interested in keeping a legacy of applied criteria, that's the most valuable thing in this in my mind when you get to look back on say a Brent Krahn (drafted 2000) and his roll through future analysis history. Useless if you have different rules each year.
With all due respect, we now have a devoted forum to prospects due to increased interest. With that in mind, you could argue there's a different audience that might warrant a new approach. An evolution with more informed, sophisticated contributers.

What was done in the past becomes less relevant, especially given the focus should be on the future. Let's face it, in the past there was a largely indifferent, if not openly hostile, reaction to prospect discussion. So things have already changed.

Last edited by Reggie Dunlop; 10-18-2007 at 03:07 PM.
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Old 10-18-2007, 03:09 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop View Post
But at the end of the day, that's how the compiled information is presented.
If you look at the one link sure ...

but the side links show all the detail. Here's the combined analysis showing both rating scores for high ranking players

http://www.calgarypuck.com/Combined_2006.htm

here's the link for a look at likelihood specifically
http://www.calgarypuck.com/Likelihood2006.htm

and here's the one for potential
http://www.calgarypuck.com/Potential2006.htm

here's a like that shows the actual analysis
http://www.calgarypuck.com/Detail2006.htm

and article looking at the big moves between years
http://www.calgarypuck.com/Movers_2006.htm

a look back at when we were right
http://www.calgarypuck.com/On_The_Money_2006.htm

and when we were wrong
http://www.calgarypuck.com/Off_The_Mark2006.htm

maybe you didn't dig deep enough.

Those are available for every analysis year and the links are all down the right side of every single one of them.

not the "here's my favourite guy" list that you suggest
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Old 10-18-2007, 03:15 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
not the "here's my favourite guy" list that you suggest
Well, I'm hope I'm not coming across as unduly critical. Far from it. I realize that you've put a great deal of work into this in the past.

Just suggesting some out-of-box suggestions to change things up a bit. I don't think a database need be written in stone.
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Old 10-18-2007, 03:34 PM   #16
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No I'm cool with any suggestions for presentation and analysis ... I love that stuff. But the drivers behind it ... that consistency is important in my mind so you can tie the years together.
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Old 10-18-2007, 04:01 PM   #17
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Quote:
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No I'm cool with any suggestions for presentation and analysis ... I love that stuff. But the drivers behind it ... that consistency is important in my mind so you can tie the years together.
What's in the vault is in the vault -- taken out, dusted off and examined from time to time. Still a worthwhile activity.

The game evolves, player selection criteria changes. Here's an example: the changes in the economic structure of European leagues might necessitate the inclusion of a new criteria of "Flight Risk" being added. Again, this is but an example of the sort of thing that can influence evaluations differently than in the past.

In my mind, how to improve the CalgaryPuck feature going forward is worth examining.

Last edited by Reggie Dunlop; 10-18-2007 at 04:41 PM.
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Old 10-18-2007, 05:03 PM   #18
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you know what ... whatever

I get tired of this endless bickering to be honest. I believe there's a few things in play here.

1. it's a fan site. You can't make it too complex or you don't get enough people in it.
2. I like the historical link
3. I'm good for analytical suggestions.

I hope that works for you.
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Old 10-18-2007, 06:09 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
I get tired of this endless bickering to be honest. I believe there's a few things in play here.

1. it's a fan site. You can't make it too complex or you don't get enough people in it.
2. I like the historical link
3. I'm good for analytical suggestions.

I hope that works for you.
Well, I hope I wasn't coming across that way for the sake of being argumentative. I was suggesting some new ideas I thought have merit.

But you're right, it's your call.
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Old 10-18-2007, 06:17 PM   #20
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I say stick to the old methodology. There is no way of ranking prospects that will ever be perfect, Bingo's way is pretty good IMO, and it keep things consistent and simple.
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