Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
All factors for sure.
But most of your list is such a small differential (5% on powerplay when you only get an average of 2.5 a night for example), compared to your whole second line having an off season.
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Matthew Tkachuk
2016-17
Games - 76
Goals - 13
Penalty minutes - 105
PP Goals - 3
Shots - 142
Shooting % - 9.2%
Face off % - 34.78%
2017-18
Games - 68
Goals - 24
Penalty minutes - 61
PP Goals - 10
Shots - 188
Shooting % - 12.8%
Face off % - 41.18%
The whole second line didn't have an off season for the entire year. Tkachuk, in less games played, increased his goals by 11, reduced his penalty minutes by 44, increased his power play goals by 7, took 46 more shots while increasing his shooting percentage by 3.6 points (33.3% increase), and increased his faceoff percentage by 6.4 points. To me, that doesn't seem like he had a down year. I'd argue that's an excellent improvement on his previous season.
The Flames power play was 16.0% last year. The median average was 20.6. Although 4.6 percentage points, that's a 28.75% difference. If the Flames had even the median average percentage, they'd have 13 more power play goals. The Flames lost 17 one goal games, including OT and SOs. They had another 3 games where they lost by two goals and an empty netter was scored. Do you think in those 20 games the horrific power play scoring a goal or two might have made the difference?
In 2014-15 and 2016-17 Calgary's power play was at or above the median (10th and 16th). They made the playoffs both years. In 2013-14, 2015-16, 2017-18 (the years surrounding the playoff years), their power play was abysmal, ranking 24, 22, and 29. I think there is likely a correlation between a team's power play goals and playoff appearances.