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Old 05-25-2022, 05:52 PM   #1101
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Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan View Post
Some teams have lots of them:

Florida Panthers

1st overall: Aaron Ekblad, Joe Thornton
2nd: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart
3rd: Jonathan Huberdeau
4th: Sam Bennett

Didn't do much for them this year though. It's a red herring argument.
Having them doesn't guarantee anything, but not having them almost guarantees no Cup
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Old 05-25-2022, 06:14 PM   #1102
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Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan View Post
Some teams have lots of them:

Florida Panthers

1st overall: Aaron Ekblad, Joe Thornton
2nd: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart
3rd: Jonathan Huberdeau
4th: Sam Bennett

Didn't do much for them this year though. It's a red herring argument.
Not so sure about, literally every team in the last 13 years have players drafted in the top 4, 10 of those championship teams have 1st overall picks. Drafting 1st overall improves your chances dramatically of winning a cup. If the Rangers beat Carolina, Oilers beat flames, assuming Colorado wins, those last 4 teams all have 1st overall picks.

The flames if they win a cup, are going to have to model themselves after St.Louis, great goaltending, great coaching and some luck and they are not leading in any of those metrics right. The St.Louis model represents 7.69 percent of the Stanley cups won in the last 13 years.

Drafting 1st overall matters.....ALOT
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:12 PM   #1103
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Not so sure about, literally every team in the last 13 years have players drafted in the top 4, 10 of those championship teams have 1st overall picks. Drafting 1st overall improves your chances dramatically of winning a cup. If the Rangers beat Carolina, Oilers beat flames, assuming Colorado wins, those last 4 teams all have 1st overall picks.

The flames if they win a cup, are going to have to model themselves after St.Louis, great goaltending, great coaching and some luck and they are not leading in any of those metrics right. The St.Louis model represents 7.69 percent of the Stanley cups won in the last 13 years.

Drafting 1st overall matters.....ALOT
I agree drafting first vs drafting top 3 is a huge difference. But you can chase first for years and not get it. Once you get it great but itís not a guarantee to get
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:55 PM   #1104
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Almost all the recent championship teams also had front loaded long term contracts on their team. This strategy is no longer an option. Pittsburgh and Washington recent cups had Crosby, AO and Backstrom on what would now be illegal contracts.
Backstrom was on year 8 of his now-illegal 10 year contract. The biggest difference would have been a lower cap-hit as they would have taken up less UFA years had he signed an 8 year contract.

Ovechkin was making 9.5M, he's making 9.5M now.

Neither were backloaded or included retirement years, quite the opposite.

Crosby at least fits the argument, but I'm not sure we should go against his superstitions and assume he would have anything other than an 8.7M cap hit.

A least the Hawks with Hossa (first through third recent cups) and Keith (Second and third recent cups) actually did have contracts that wouldn't fly today. But the real value in contracts was having Toews and Kane's ELC's during their first cup, and the end of their second contracts during their third cup, all of which were legal contracts then and today.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:09 PM   #1105
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2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, or New York wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Tampa had success because of their strong early picks, but really it was finding late round gems to add to the core that won them the cups.
You're implying that top 3 picks aren't that important yet all the cup winners you named have top three picks. The only team in the last 10 years that doesn't have a top 3 pick is St Louis. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Tampa, all have multiple top 3 picks. Obviously you need depth but none of those teams win their cups without their top 3 picks.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:20 PM   #1106
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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, or New York wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Tampa had success because of their strong early picks, but really it was finding late round gems to add to the core that won them the cups.
Many players from 2011 are just hitting their prime now (Gaudreau, Miller, Huberdeau, Landeskog, all just had their most productive seasons).

If anything, the takeaway is that it takes time to go from a lottery team to a cup winning team.

Really, the only absolute musts, evidently, to win a cup are:
-A strong 1-2 punch at center
-A hot homegrown goalie

There are no exceptions to these, going back 50 years.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:23 PM   #1107
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Backstrom was on year 8 of his now-illegal 10 year contract. The biggest difference would have been a lower cap-hit as they would have taken up less UFA years had he signed an 8 year contract.

Ovechkin was making 9.5M, he's making 9.5M now.

Neither were backloaded or included retirement years, quite the opposite.

Crosby at least fits the argument, but I'm not sure we should go against his superstitions and assume he would have anything other than an 8.7M cap hit.

A least the Hawks with Hossa (first through third recent cups) and Keith (Second and third recent cups) actually did have contracts that wouldn't fly today. But the real value in contracts was having Toews and Kane's ELC's during their first cup, and the end of their second contracts during their third cup, all of which were legal contracts then and today.
It still matters. If AO only signed an 8 year deal instead of 13 heís a ufa 5 years earlier and negotiates a new deal at 31 instead of 36. 100% if he hit ufa 5 years earlier he gets more than 9.5. Backstrom more than 6.7 he was at. So sure they werenít front loaded but they were still longer than 8 years so both illegal contracts. Both would have got raises before they won that cup. It could have blocked them from winning

Maybe McDavid wouldnít have done it but if the Oilers had the option to sign him for 13 years even if it meant 13.5 or 14 mil Iíd bet the Oilers would eventually figure it out if they had the choice to keep him for that many years

Now guys like matthews went out got paid only signed 5 years. First overall snd 60 goal man but leafs are already running out of time
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:43 PM   #1108
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Watching Mackinnon (1st) do everything in his power to end the Blues tonight after watching Makar (4th) have one of the best four game sweeps in modern history the series before and recognizing that their heart and soul captain Landeskog was drafted 2nd while Byram (4th) keeps getting more and more responsibility and now has back-to-back multipoint nights, it becomes hard for me to recognize any argument that drafting at the top isn't a near necessity.

This is after watching the Oilers go up 3-1 on the back of two players, McDavid (1st) and Draisaitl (3rd) while Nugent-Hopkins (1st) is flirting with a point-per-game.

And watching the Lightning sweep the Eastern conference champs who relied on Barkov (2nd) and Ekblad (1st). Lightning did it with the immense help of Hedman (2nd), Stamkos (1st), and Sergachev (acquired in trade with third overall). And surely would have lost against the Matthews (1st) and Marner (4th) led Leafs without them.

Sure, you can build around the 4th overall if you're the Blues. Just as long as that pick ends up being your 30 minute a night, elite defenseman, a rookie goaltender comes out from nowhere to post a 0.950% in the four Stanley Cup finals wins, you get another minute crunching top pick defenseman for a mid 1st rounder, and are gifted a Conn Smythe winning center for peanuts.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:43 PM   #1109
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Backstrom more than 6.7 he was at.
No. He signs for 8 years instead of 10 years, taking up two less UFA years, and he's making less.
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:09 PM   #1110
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Also Malkin signed his current contract in 2013, one year removed from his second Art Ross and 50 goal season where he won the Hart and Lindsay. Shortly after leading the Penguins in post-season points, again, just as he had done during his Conn Smythe Stanley Cup season a couple years earlier. He still "only" made 9.5M.

Ovechkin would be hard-pressed to be asking for much more, especially if he was negotiating in that 2014 range where the Capitals weren't even making the playoffs. Not that it mattered much since Ovechkin was all but invisible the year before when they did make it (1 goal, 1 assist in 7 games).

So any higher cap that Ovechkin would have had would be negated by the lower cap that Backstrom had.

Plus, if Ovechkin had signed an 8 year contract (5 years RFA) instead of 13 years, his cap-hit during those 8 years would have been much lower and maybe they get over the hump that much earlier when they can bring in a better player or two.
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:13 PM   #1111
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No. He signs for 8 years instead of 10 years, taking up two less UFA years, and he's making less.
Less on that first long term contract contract but becomes a ufa 2 years earlier. He sign for 9.2 in 2020. If he got 9.2 in 2018 and AO sign for more than 9.5 at age 31 the increase in cap hits could have been a huge blow to the 2019 champs

I’m 2019 they made $9.5 and $6.7

If it was $10.5 and $9.2 that’s a lot of cap. Could be the difference of winning their cup
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:16 PM   #1112
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Also Malkin signed his current contract in 2013, one year removed from his second Art Ross and 50 goal season where he won the Hart and Lindsay. Shortly after leading the Penguins in post-season points, again, just as he had done during his Conn Smythe Stanley Cup season a couple years earlier. He still "only" made 9.5M.

Ovechkin would be hard-pressed to be asking for much more, especially if he was negotiating in that 2014 range where the Capitals weren't even making the playoffs. Not that it mattered much since Ovechkin was all but invisible the year before when they did make it (1 goal, 1 assist in 7 games).

So any higher cap that Ovechkin would have had would be negated by the lower cap that Backstrom had.

Plus, if Ovechkin had signed an 8 year contract (5 years RFA) instead of 13 years, his cap-hit during those 8 years would have been much lower and maybe they get over the hump that much earlier when they can bring in a better player or two.
I could have been lower but he had all the power. Sid made $8.7 on 5 year deal AO signed for 8 years I bet it would have been maybe $500k less. Not millions
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:18 PM   #1113
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Less on that first long term contract contract but becomes a ufa 2 years earlier. He sign for 9.2 in 2020. If he got 9.2 in 2018 and AO sign for more than 9.5 at age 31 the increase in cap hits could have been a huge blow to the 2019 champs

Iím 2019 they made $9.5 and $6.7

If it was $10.5 and $9.2 thatís a lot of cap. Could be the difference of winning their cup
What does Backstrom have to do with the Blues?

The Capitals won it in 2018, year eight of Backstrom's ten year deal.
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:34 PM   #1114
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Many players from 2011 are just hitting their prime now (Gaudreau, Miller, Huberdeau, Landeskog, all just had their most productive seasons).

If anything, the takeaway is that it takes time to go from a lottery team to a cup winning team.

Really, the only absolute musts, evidently, to win a cup are:
-A strong 1-2 punch at center
-A hot homegrown goalie

There are no exceptions to these, going back 50 years.
Patrick Roy says hi.
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:36 PM   #1115
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2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle
As has been mentioned, if you're picking top 3 it typically means you are pretty darn bad and/or have been darn bad for a while. It's usually gonna take at least 5 years from the start of the rebuild; high picks often come early on, but not always*

The bolded were all picked by EDM, FLA, and BUF. 11/18 of those picks from '10-'15 went to three historically bad franchises...at least 7 years later and two of those teams have only now kinda started to level up.

It's too early to judge much since 2017, but there has been less concentration of picks:
NJDx2
NYRx2
BUF/MTL/CBJ have multiple high picks over a wider time frame.

2004-2009 were also incredible drafts for top end talent (probably 8 or 9 out of the 18 top 3 picks in those years are HOFers) + the legendary 2003 draft...it's no surprise that group has had a stranglehold on the Cup.

2010-12 pretty darn weak (do any of those guys sniff the HOF?). 2013-16 much stronger, but probably not quite the 50% HOF rate of the late 2000s.



*CHI got their high picks after several years of stocking the cupboards, creating a perfect storm of lots of lower picks starting to hit their prime at the same time as the generational talent(s) who were much quicker to get there:

2002 - Keith
2003 - Seabrook+Crawford+Byfuglien
2004 - 17 picks (albeit 9 rounds then) yielded Barker (3OA)+Bolland+Bickell+Brouwer
2005 - Hjalmarsson
2006 - Toews 3OA
2007 - Kane 1OA
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Old 05-25-2022, 10:41 PM   #1116
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Many players from 2011 are just hitting their prime now (Gaudreau, Miller, Huberdeau, Landeskog, all just had their most productive seasons).

If anything, the takeaway is that it takes time to go from a lottery team to a cup winning team.

Really, the only absolute musts, evidently, to win a cup are:
-A strong 1-2 punch at center
-A hot homegrown goalie

There are no exceptions to these, going back 50 years.
Avs should just pack it in considering their goalie was drafted by Minny
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Old 05-25-2022, 11:08 PM   #1117
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Tampa also turned their third overall (Drouin) into Sergachev while Colorado turned their third overall (Duchene) into Girard (who was playing 20+ minutes a night before he got injured) and Byram (who has filled in for Girard's injury).

I don't consider Thornton with Florida, Tavares with the Leafs, Gudbranson with the Flames or even Johnson with the Avalanche etc. as part of the "high draft picks" but if you can trade those high draft picks for good players like Tampa and Colorado did, they surely have to count.

Also the Duchene trade could have landed the Avalanche B, Tkachuk (the Senators decided to keep that pick) or Hughes (Avalanche had best odds but lost all three lotteries). So that top 3 pick in 2009 was very close to giving the Avalanche a franchise player to build around in the 2020s. They still might have got one with Byram.
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Old 05-26-2022, 05:52 AM   #1118
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You're implying that top 3 picks aren't that important yet all the cup winners you named have top three picks. The only team in the last 10 years that doesn't have a top 3 pick is St Louis. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Tampa, all have multiple top 3 picks. Obviously you need depth but none of those teams win their cups without their top 3 picks.
I guess the point is being missed. Simply put, almost every team in the league has a player who was drafted in top 3. Every cup winner does. Every first round fodder does. Every bottom dweller does. The reason why only one team without a top 3 pick won a cup in last 13 years is because there have been very few such teams to begin with.
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Old 05-26-2022, 05:57 AM   #1119
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Yeah, people need to stop pretending Markstromís play against the Oilers has been an issue in just this series. I donít know how many more sub-par games it will take to affirm in their eyes that itís a problem. Three more? Six?

That doesnít mean itís the only reason this team has struggled. But itís the biggest reason.

Honestly, whatís the downside of going with Vladar at this point? That he might play even worse than Markstrom? To do that, he would have to play worse than any other goalie in the playoffs so far. And if he does? <shrug>

Alternatively, Vladar might play average. Which would be a big boost to the Flamesí fortunes.
This is where a goalkeeping coach needs to earn his money. Why Markstrom struggles against Oilers? He needs to study tape. Talk with Markstrom about it. Figure it out.
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Old 05-26-2022, 06:57 AM   #1120
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I guess the point is being missed. Simply put, almost every team in the league has a player who was drafted in top 3. Every cup winner does. Every first round fodder does. Every bottom dweller does. The reason why only one team without a top 3 pick won a cup in last 13 years is because there have been very few such teams to begin with.
And the teams that haven't pretty much all look like long shots to compete with the elite teams.
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