American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by troutman

The foreword to Cohen’s new book:

https://www.showbiz411.com/2020/08/1...not-parachutes

Cohen is a weasel and a snake, but I've no doubt he had Trump's full trust, and if he shares even a tenth of the stories he has, it'll be a hell of an interesting read.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Being well spoken is a bad thing these days? I guess the West peaked in the 20th century and has begun it's decline.

Its an old racist trope said to black Americans, I'd highly recommend reading this article when Corey Booker was called well spoken.

https://www.aaihs.org/inarticulate-while-black/

I imagine that there are people who believe that Black people are too sensitive. When Blacks are called “well-spoken,” or “articulate,” they may say to themselves that this is not the worse thing that one can be called. After all Mayor Bloomberg, they might say, most likely intended to be complimentary when he said Cory Booker was well-spoken. Despite learning racism’s three card monte— pocketing the term “uppity” and replacing it with the charge of being “too sensitive” —these people have not, in their hearts, learned to replace the idea that Black people are some type of way.

The observation, and especially the pleasantly surprised tone in which it is usually offered, reveals that the speaker subscribes to a way of thinking that holds that Black people are typically inarticulate. “Articulate” Blacks are therefore a welcome exception to the rule. Subject to the delusion that a person’s vocabulary reflects their intelligence or cognitive power, they hold that the articulate (in standard English) Black person is evidence that not all Blacks are illiterate or incapable of speech. Their being witness to this proof, while white, is the compliment on offer.

[Lanny_McDonald]

https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/sta...71196082937856

Trump is attacking the USPS because he knows the mail-in vote will go against him in a massive way. This is the most blatant example of rampant voter suppression in the history of this country and not a damn thing is being done about it. This impact Democrats, Republicans, and Independents equally. People should be in the streets with pitchforks and torches.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-postal-...151003445.html

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm more concerned with Biden's polling with Latinos and young black voters than I am with him pulling in wayward Republicans. The Never Trumpers seem pretty locked in at this point.

My criticism isn't bitching about progressives being locked out because it makes me annoyed. I just think it's not the best strategy if you're trying to drum up enthusiasm amongst the more disaffected members from your own side of the aisle.

It's a numbers game, right? Generally whoever turns out the most supporters from their side wins.

You are right on. It is all about strategy and appealing to the groups of people that will give you the best return with votes.

To me, the reason I think the outreach is not towards progressives is that many are unreachable. There is always so much backlash that all of Bernies policies don't instantly become the party platform. There are so many progressives that thumb their nose at democrats for not cowering to them and they don't vote or vote 3rd party. These people are not members of the democratic party and only see the party as a means to an end. Why cater to them? They advocate for policies that are just not palatable to most of the population and then take their ball and go home if they don't get their way.

The example I always use is Obamacare. While a step forward, it was far from being progressive policy. Yet the republican party still spent a decade dismantling as much as they could. So if watered down reforms struggle to get enough support to be permanent, how in the world do they expect their agenda to get through?

So instead of trying to win the unwinnable, it looks like the strategy will be play to the middle. Play to the moderates. We will see in a few months whether the strategy worked. I just personally, don't see going left as viable. You alienate as many as you gain that way.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by New Era

https://twitter.com/EllieRushing/sta...71196082937856

Trump is attacking the USPS because he knows the mail-in vote will go against him in a massive way. This is the most blatant example of rampant voter suppression in the history of this country and not a damn thing is being done about it. This impact Democrats, Republicans, and Independents equally. People should be in the streets with pitchforks and torches.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-postal-...151003445.html

Well he thinks it will go against him but historically mail-in voting has not provided an advantage to any side (nor has there been any sort of meaningful fraud). Maybe this year it does because people may have already made up their minds that there is no way they are voting for him. But the basis of his complaints and concerns are not true (shocker!).

This is just and next step in a hopeful dictators plan for taking control. Disenfranchise as many people as possible. He’s at the point where he knows he only has his cult so he’s starting to move beyond simply disenfranchising the left. He’s now looking to disenfranchise the independents and center-rights.

I know I should no longer be shocked by the GOP but I really can’t believe they are silent on this. They need to distance themselves from Trump as every time the races are reassessed they are moving to the left. They are in real danger of losing the senate and 6 months ago that wasn’t really seen as a possibility. Somehow Trump has made them forget to only look out for themselves...

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by ernie

Well he thinks it will go against him but historically mail-in voting has not provided an advantage to any side (nor has there been any sort of meaningful fraud). Maybe this year it does because people may have already made up their minds that there is no way they are voting for him. But the basis of his complaints and concerns are not true (shocker!).

This is just and next step in a hopeful dictators plan for taking control. Disenfranchise as many people as possible. He’s at the point where he knows he only has his cult so he’s starting to move beyond simply disenfranchising the left. He’s now looking to disenfranchise the independents and center-rights.

I think the one change against historical mail in voting is the pandemic. Polls have shown consistently it is liberal leaning folks that have taken it more seriously and would therefore be more hesitant to not want to vote in person.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by dobbles

You are right on. It is all about strategy and appealing to the groups of people that will give you the best return with votes.

To me, the reason I think the outreach is not towards progressives is that many are unreachable. There is always so much backlash that all of Bernies policies don't instantly become the party platform. There are so many progressives that thumb their nose at democrats for not cowering to them and they don't vote or vote 3rd party. These people are not members of the democratic party and only see the party as a means to an end. Why cater to them? They advocate for policies that are just not palatable to most of the population and then take their ball and go home if they don't get their way.

The example I always use is Obamacare. While a step forward, it was far from being progressive policy. Yet the republican party still spent a decade dismantling as much as they could. So if watered down reforms struggle to get enough support to be permanent, how in the world do they expect their agenda to get through?

So instead of trying to win the unwinnable, it looks like the strategy will be play to the middle. Play to the moderates. We will see in a few months whether the strategy worked. I just personally, don't see going left as viable. You alienate as many as you gain that way.

It’s ideologues vs realists. The realist takes the wins, builds up leverage and takes some more wins down the road to effect true change. The ideologues gets mad when they don’t get everything and pack up their toys.

To me that is the perceived sin of Harris. She hasn’t been perfect but she’s taken little wins along the way to make an impact. Hell even Bernie knows this. He is always compromising and negotiating to take his wins. Like he has done with Biden (and Warren the same). It’s something hot hat AOC is learning I think. Ideals are good to have. Those ideals preventing you from making tangible change in your direction is not.

Biden is right to reach out to the middle and middle-right. He’s also in a unique position compared to Clinton. He has the Obamas on board. Even though they were with Clinton it was never really believed that much. Everyone knows the obamas fully support Biden And they will be active. He has Bernie and Warren on board and they will be active. This is a different campaign base and one that has a legitimate broader appeal than Clinton’s campaign. That’s the key to A democratic victory...somehow pulling in all aspects of a very diverse party.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I saw this coming a mile away. 3 months ago I said he would either suppress mail in votes or he would deny that they actually count (voter fraud).

Despite the crazy case count in Florida, I decided back then that this election is too important to give him any possible outs, so I'm showing up to a polling station come hell or high water. I've told everyone in my family who is under 75 to do the same and they seemed to agree back then, but now I'm sure it'll be considered an essential thing to do.

We're going to flip Florida this time around, I'm doing my best to make sure of it.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by dobbles

I think the one change against historical mail in voting is the pandemic. Polls have shown consistently it is liberal leaning folks that have taken it more seriously and would therefore be more hesitant to not want to vote in person.

However, in the various elections the last few months, removal of mail in voting has resulted in those same people from the left standing in line. The advantage, if there is one, isn’t because of the pandemic leading to the left voting by mail. The advantage is that the left is highly motivated to vote.

I also fully expect Trump to pull out his personal DHS army to harass the people on Election Day and to scare people away from voting. In blue areas of course.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Here's the thing on the two strategies.

Dems going after the GOP voters that could be swayed is a better strategy than the extreme left that don't vote. Every GOP voter on the fence is basically worth 2 of the non-voting left (as you have to get one to cancel the GOP vote and 1 to beat it). You also don't want to sway the Dem voter on the fence over to the GOP by signing too far left.


In terms of mail in voting. It makes people go to the polls. The Democrat counties will be understaffed and GOP counties with easy voting.

Its not just not voting by mail, its step 1. Step 2 is the hours in line during a pandemic which GOP counties in GOP swing states won't face.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Here's the thing on the two strategies.

Dems going after the GOP voters that could be swayed is a better strategy than the extreme left that don't vote. Every GOP voter on the fence is basically worth 2 of the non-voting left (as you have to get one to cancel the GOP vote and 1 to beat it). You also don't want to sway the Dem voter on the fence over to the GOP by signing too far left.


In terms of mail in voting. It makes people go to the polls. The Democrat counties will be understaffed and GOP counties with easy voting.

Its not just not voting by mail, its step 1. Step 2 is the hours in line during a pandemic which GOP counties in GOP swing states won't face.

Which states are at risk. You need to be a purple state with GOP governor. So Florida, Arizona, and Ohio? Or for state houses control electoral rules rather than governors?

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1294237268211904512

[troutman]

FiveThirtyEight forecast, updated yesterday:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

There hasn’t been much high-quality polling as we inch closer to the conventions, but we got some new national and state polls yesterday. So far, it doesn’t seem as if Joe Biden’s advantage is shrinking. He still leads President Trump by more than 8 points in our national polling average. However, some state polls have shown better numbers for Trump in recent days. Our forecast still shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because, simply put, there’s plenty of time for the race to change.

Biden is favored to win the election, 73 in 100

[nik-]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

https://twitter.com/user/status/1294237268211904512

Clearly the answer to the age old question was "Jared Kushner"

[Itse]

The more the progressives complain that Biden is too status quo, the more appealing (or less threatening) Biden will be to the conservative leaning centrists. So that's noise is likely just good for the Biden campaign.

Besides, I think very few progressives will actually stay home instead of voting against Trump. They are the ones that see Trump as literal fascist who is trying to end democracy. (Which is correct, but not something everyone takes seriously.) That's all the incentive they need, so the ones that won't bother to vote were never that likely to vote anyway, they're either too lazy or just don't believe in voting. I think it's pretty likely that the progressives will organize their own voting campaigns against Trump regardless.

So yeah, I think going for the centrist vote is is likely the smart move for Biden.

Additionally, the GOP is going to vote block really hard this election, but it's a lot harder to block the center.

[PsYcNeT]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1294254418569953280

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

Clearly the answer to the age old question was "Jared Kushner"

Clearly I think Trump is an a$$, a crook, a serial Sexual assaulter, and bar none the worst president that the United States has ever seen, he's incredibly dangerous and I think he has serious mental health issues and should have probably never been allowed to actually be president. I have a ton of disrespect for his advisors, and the ones that I acually liked were shuffled off to the sides for these idiots.


I firmly believe that Trump is a un apologetic racist.



At the end of the day, though if out of all this misery that he's caused we get a strong step forward in the middle east, its one good thing, it doesn't come close to forgiving the rest of this shyte show though.


I also tend to believe that for whatever reason, this election is going to be closer then we thing. I don't think either of the parties are good and both need serious reform. I also while I agree that Trump has to go by any means necessary, I'm not overly sold on JB.

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by ernie

It’s ideologues vs realists. The realist takes the wins, builds up leverage and takes some more wins down the road to effect true change. The ideologues gets mad when they don’t get everything and pack up their toys.

To me that is the perceived sin of Harris. She hasn’t been perfect but she’s taken little wins along the way to make an impact. Hell even Bernie knows this. He is always compromising and negotiating to take his wins. Like he has done with Biden (and Warren the same). It’s something hot hat AOC is learning I think. Ideals are good to have. Those ideals preventing you from making tangible change in your direction is not.

Biden is right to reach out to the middle and middle-right. He’s also in a unique position compared to Clinton. He has the Obamas on board. Even though they were with Clinton it was never really believed that much. Everyone knows the obamas fully support Biden And they will be active. He has Bernie and Warren on board and they will be active. This is a different campaign base and one that has a legitimate broader appeal than Clinton’s campaign. That’s the key to A democratic victory...somehow pulling in all aspects of a very diverse party.

Good post overall. I think regarding Obama's support, he also wanted to remain neutral as the sitting president whereas now he is just a guy that can say whatever he wants. Obviously there are some differences in the relationships, but I think a lot of the tepid support for Clinton was intentional as he tried not to look corrupt. My how 4 years have changed things.....

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Clearly I think Trump is an a$$, a crook, a serial Sexual assaulter, and bar none the worst president that the United States has ever seen, he's incredibly dangerous and I think he has serious mental health issues and should have probably never been allowed to actually be president. I have a ton of disrespect for his advisors, and the ones that I acually liked were shuffled off to the sides for these idiots.


I firmly believe that Trump is a un apologetic racist.



At the end of the day, though if out of all this misery that he's caused we get a strong step forward in the middle east, its one good thing, it doesn't come close to forgiving the rest of this shyte show though.


I also tend to believe that for whatever reason, this election is going to be closer then we thing. I don't think either of the parties are good and both need serious reform. I also while I agree that Trump has to go by any means necessary, I'm not overly sold on JB.

This.

As a past resident of various countries in the middle east, if these countries and these people gain some security and prosperity from this brokered alliance, my goodness, the last 3.5 of Trump might have been worth it (not, obviously, for American's).

[direwolf]

More on Trump sabotaging the USPS.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/13/polit...nes/index.html

The US Postal Service plans to remove hundreds of high-volume mail-processing machines from facilities across the country, leading some postal workers to fear they may have less capacity to process mail during election season. Documents obtained by CNN indicate 671 machines used to organize letters or other pieces of mail are slated for "reduction" in dozens of cities this year. The agency started removing machines in June, according to postal workers.

While the reductions come amid decreased mail volume this year and are described by some postal officials as making the service more cost-effective, the effort overlaps with other actions implemented by the Postal Service that workers have blamed for delivery delays. The new procedures were described in a July memo and include staff hours being cut.

The reduction effort has prompted questions and concerns among some postal union leaders.

A letter sent Wednesday from the National Postal Mail Handlers Union to the Postal Service headquarters asked, "Why are these machines being removed?" and "What is the anticipated staffing impacts in the facilities that are losing equipment?"

The letter also asked if it's true that all equipment planned for removal has not been used since early May.

Chris Bentley, president of the National Postal Mail Handlers Union Local 297, which covers Kansas and part of Missouri, told CNN that postal management has already taken out four machines in Kansas City, two machines in Springfield, Missouri, and one machine in Wichita, Kansas.

Bentley said that even though total mail volume is currently down, he didn't understand why the machines were being removed rather than simply turned off and kept in place in case they are needed in the fall, when the Postal Service expects volume to increase with mail-in ballots, campaign materials and other mail.