Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2019 - Round 11

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

Forgive me since I don't know much about any of the prospects below 5, but why is Gillies getting votes this early? He seems like a ideal candidate to be dropping to the mid to late 20s. Is he getting votes based on past rankings or is he considered a possible really late bloomer?

I think he is living off his hype still from a few years ago.

He hasn't shown much lately.

[GioforPM]

He's getting votes because none of the prospects left are likely to see much, if any, games. But an injury to a goalie and Gillies will be up. And his upside as a large goalie who could possibly turn things around is much better than the others. Is it likely? Nope. Is it possible? Yes.

[bax]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

I kept meaning to ask about him on these threads... I didn’t realize he went on such a tear in Sudbury, that’s awesome... hopefully he has a monster season in Stockton. Is he a lock to play for the Heat this season, more or less?

I would say he’s a lock for Stockton for sure. Hard to see a spot for him on the big club and he needs to work on his consistency.

[jlh2640]

Gillies

[united]

Adam Ruzicka
He's big, he has decent hands and offensively ability, he is decent in his own end...but his attitude and commitment are concerns. He isn't always engaged and is easily rattled and knocked off his game, and when that happens he looks like a beer league player during a 10:45 PM weekday game going through the motions to get home ASAP. But when he is on he can drive a line and contribute at both ends of the ice. 32 even-strength goals in 65 games is impressive as is generating over 3.5 shots per game, while also having decent vision. Excellent in the dot, too - arguably the best in the OHL. If he can get the mental side figured out he has a good shot at making it as he has every tool in the box. If not, I reckon he'll be saying "what if" when he looks back on things later in life.

Ceiling: 2nd line C
Probable: 4A C
Floor: Outright bust


Also in consideration
Jeremy McKenna
One dimensional goal scorer but scoring goals is the most difficult skill in hockey. Excellent at getting open and finding gaps in coverage which allows him to get his hard and accurate shot off. Also terrific on the powerplay. But, his defensive shortcomings significantly reduce his probability of success. Hockey is full of junior snipers who didn't pan out, but there are a few who have turned into mighty good scorers. Over 5 shots per game is insane.

Ceiling: 2nd line W
Probable: Tweener
Floor: Outright bust


After Ruzicka and McKenna, I see a drop with the rest of the lot, noting I value ceiling much higher than probability of playing a handful of games on the 4th line.

Lucas Feuk

Spoiler!

At this stage his game is purely offensive, likely as a winger going forward, but one who plays a gritty game and isn't afraid to go to the tough areas of the ice. Excellent forechecker, but doesn't like his own zone. Good frame with plenty of room for growth over the next few years. Looking forward to him hopefully stepping up a level in competition next season.

Ceiling: 3rd line LW
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Outright bust

Filip Sveningsson

Spoiler!

A decent season as one of the youngest players in Sweden's second division. Very quick release that generates a heavy shot with a high degree of accuracy...however over half his goals came on the powerplay which is cause for concern. Powerplay scoring isn't not important, but at this stage if you can't consistently generate your own quality shooting opportunities at even-strength at this level there is reasonable skepticism moving up. Next year will reveal a lot - hopefully he begins driving play 5v5, in which case he should shoot up the rankings. But until then, there is reason for some skepticism.

Ceiling: 3rd line LW
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Outright bust

Milos Roman

Spoiler!

A cerebral player who doesn't have the physical toolbox of most other draftees. Important player on the best defensive team in the conference as he often lined up against the opposition's best, which may have impacted his slightly disappointing offensive output. Very smart and patient player with a high degree of anticipation whether forechecking or angling in the neutral zone. At this stage his offense is unlikely to translate.

Ceiling: 4th line C
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Outright bust

Ryan Lomberg

Spoiler!

Well known for his pesty play in the NHL, he actually put together a surprisingly good campaign in the minors which was likely partially the reason he was rewarded with some NHL cash. 0.5 ppg in the AHL with hardly any powerplay time isn't to be disregarded - he outscored Spencer Foo and Glenn Gawdin 5v5 in fewer games, for example.

Ceiling: 4th line W
Probably: Minor league journeyman
Floor: Minor league journeyman

Demetrios Koumontzis

Spoiler!

Difficult to get a good grasp as as an independent, the level of competition faced changed frequently. On the surface a good season, but another example of taking advantage of the man advantage but not doing as much as you hope the rest of the time. Hockey Ops speaks highly of him, but I'll reserve too much judgment for another year.

Glenn Gawdin

Spoiler!

Coming off an enormous WHL season as an overager on the second best team in the league, he had a reasonable first year as a pro - I maintain the leap from junior to the AHL is a huge step for rookies so cut them some slack as a result. That said, just 5 even strength goals in 60+ games is concerning. Next season will be a big one in his development. Right shot gives him a leg up.

Ceiling: 4th line utility player
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Minors/Europe

Luke Philp

Spoiler!

Very interested to see his first season of pro. Completely murdered a league filled with mid-range ex-WHLers/high-end ex-Tier 2 juniors. Likely a hard working journeyman but need some viewings.

Eetu Tuulola

Spoiler!

Massive human being who had an excellent season in Finland. A respectable 36 in 60 but with a shooting % of 6 he likely could've added a few more goals to that point total. As a natural right wing, he could become a defensively responsible banger which is not only coveted by the Flames, but the entire league. Also a big body in front on the powerplay.

Ceiling: 4th line RW
Probable: Europe
Floor: Europe

Josh Nodler

Spoiler!

Decent year of output in the USHL without a ton of powerplay time, but you could counter that by noting he also sported a shooting % of 19. Avoids the difficult areas but plays smart and efficient. Needs to up the intensity and become less of a perimeter player, but the hockey sense as a two-way forward is there.

Ceiling: 4th line utility player
Probable: Minors
Floor: Outright bust

Carl-Johan Lerby

Spoiler!

Adequate two-way defenseman who blossomed with an increased role as a powerplay quarterback this season. Small frame but smooth skater. Needs to get better defensively, but another season of development in Sweden with a big plate of confidence could do wonders.

Ceiling: #6 defenseman
Probable: Minors/Europe
Floor: Minors/Europe

Rinat Valiev

Spoiler!

As expected in Stockton. No nonsense defenseman who can chip in on the powerplay in a pinch but is better suited at evens and killing penalties. Isn't exceptionally good or poor at any aspect of the game.

Ceiling: #6 defenseman
Probable: Journeyman/injury call-up
Floor: Journeyman/injury call-up

Dustin Wolf

Spoiler!

Not much to say. Superhuman season in the WHL following right in the footsteps of Carter Hart. If he were 3+ inches taller he doesn't make it into the third round and possibly goes in the first. The NHL has become obsessed with tall goalies, but the Blues just won the Cup with an undersized goalie, and guys like Jaroslav Halak, Jonathan Quick, Antti Raanta, Philip Grubauer, Anton Khudobin have enjoyed solid careers as small guys. Cautiously optimistic.

Jon Gillies

Spoiler!

Needless to say, Gillies' fall has been rapid and somewhat unexpected. Goalies are voodoo, but his college numbers were off the charts. With a save % of just .902 over his last 2,500 shots faced in the AHL, he needs a big season badly...if he even gets the chance. That said, who the hell knows with goalies (nobody does).

N/A
Artem Zagidulin
Nick Schneider

No hope
Spencer Foo
Mitchell Mattson
Linus Lindstrom
Andrew Nielsen
Justin Kirkland
Pavel Karnaukhov

[ForeverFlameFan]

Yelesin for me

[Nelson]

For me, Ruzicka’s numbers just aren’t that impressive. 78 points in 65 games played in major junior in his draft +2 year?

[bax]

Originally Posted by Nelson

For me, Ruzicka’s numbers just aren’t that impressive. 78 points in 65 games played in major junior in his draft +2 year?

I don't think those numbers are bad at all. It's also worth pointing out that his PPG climbed from 1.057 to 1.36 after getting away from his Sarnia coaches. By all accounts he "figured it out" in Sudbury and was a force the entire time he was there.

For reference Dube put up 1.58 PPG in major junior in his draft +2 year and he is our best forward prospect.

He isn't a perfect prospect, but his skill set is definitely intriguing, especially for a 4th round pick. If our AHL coaches can refine his game and continue to get that consistency out of him that he showed in in Sudbury he will be an NHL player.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by bax

I don't think those numbers are bad at all. It's also worth pointing out that his PPG climbed from 1.057 to 1.36 after getting away from his Sarnia coaches. By all accounts he "figured it out" in Sudbury and was a force the entire time he was there.

For reference Dube put up 1.58 PPG in major junior in his draft +2 year and he is our best forward prospect.

He isn't a perfect prospect, but his skill set is definitely intriguing, especially for a 4th round pick. If our AHL coaches can refine his game and continue to get that consistency out of him that he showed in in Sudbury he will be an NHL player.

One of the best things of this annual exercize is the information you get to read and dig into about prospects. I had him as an inconsistent player that didn't try that hard and had pretty much moved past him. You give me pause. Well done!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

Forgive me since I don't know much about any of the prospects below 5, but why is Gillies getting votes this early? He seems like a ideal candidate to be dropping to the mid to late 20s. Is he getting votes based on past rankings or is he considered a possible really late bloomer?

Because they think he’s one of our top 15 prospects.

Some people are all about recent play and numbers. Those posters wouldn’t be high on Gillies.

Some people like to take the long view, have patience for ups and downs and realize goalies often take 6-8 years to develop. Those posters will be higher on Gillies.

If anyone thinks goalie scouting and development can be fully judged by stats they are mistaken.

I’ve seen countless goalies debut in the nhl in their mid-late 20’s. Most goalie are “late bloomers” according to your definition.

I’ve seen the Flames not sign Craig Andersson and him go on to be a solid nhler. I’ve seen the team give up on Giguere just before he became an nhl starter. Goalies aren’t like normal skaters, they literally take twice as long to develop and therefore require twice as much patience. Clearly many of the fans are out of patience with Gillies. Some of us have not.

[PepsiFree]

I’ve seen the Flames not sign Craig Andersson and him go on to be a solid nhler. I’ve seen the team give up on Giguere just before he became an nhl starter. Goalies aren’t like normal skaters, they literally take twice as long to develop and therefore require twice as much patience. Clearly many of the fans are out of patience with Gillies. Some of us have not.

Anderson and Giguere were "moved" at 19 and 23 respectively (I say moved, because Anderson simply wasn't signed and went back into the draft). JS was also a full-time NHL starter at 24. Anderson took until 28, but in that time put up 4 good seasons in the AHL (matching or besting Gillies' best season every year) and two phenomenal years as an NHL backup.

Starting to sour on Gillies at 25/26 after doing nothing of note in the AHL isn't about a lack of reasonable patience. I think most people have a pretty good amount of patience with goalies. Expecting them to have accomplished something at the professional level by 26 is not unreasonable.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

He has accomplished “something”. What are you basing his development on? If it’s only numbers then it’s not a useful analysis. The Flames seem to think he has developed in the AHL. I understand why fans don’t agree. Another poster asked why people are voting him and I was trying to answer the question. I’m not trying or expecting people who judge Gillies solely based on AHL stats to change their minds on him.

I think it’s fair to be down on him.
I think it’s fair to be not down on him.

Our internet opinions have no bearing on the matter. Gillies has a chance of playing nhl games this season and could be in our top two the season after. It’s a possibility that I don’t think we can write off.