Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Looch City]

So AB doubles down once again and gets burned?

Or will construction still continue?

[Fuzz]

Ya, why did we throw money at this with this challenge still in play? Or was this just a judge canceling out of the blue? If we knew this was an active court case, that was a pretty bone headed move by Kenney.

[Hockeyguy15]

A reporter asked about this at the update yesterday and Kenney said he hadn’t heard anything about it yet. He said the lawyers for AB and TC said that they didn’t foresee any issues though so it sounds like an out of the blue kind of thing?

[GGG]

This is a lot like the Canadian courts overthrowing things

It’s the government not meeting their own requirements rather than anything TC has done. These are investment killing type rulings as companies can’t mitigate someone else’s incompetence.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, why did we throw money at this with this challenge still in play? Or was this just a judge canceling out of the blue? If we knew this was an active court case, that was a pretty bone headed move by Kenney.

It’s gonna continue to be challenged until the construction is complete and oil is flowing. There won’t be a point when they just get to build the line willy nilly. Just look at Enbridge line 3, within a year of completion and still facing court delays.

So the Alberta investment to keep the wheels turning I think was still a good move notwithstanding the latest challenge.

[Superflyer]

According to this

Judge Brian Morris said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers failed to adequately consider the pipeline's effect on endangered species such as pallid sturgeon, a massive dinosaur-like fish.

The ruling, however, does not shut down work that has begun at the U.S.-Canada border crossing in Montana, according to attorneys in the case. Pipeline sponsor TC Energy will need the permit for future construction across hundreds of rivers and streams along Keystone's 1,200-mile route.

BUT

Morris is holding a court hearing Thursday on two other lawsuits against the $8 billion pipeline. American Indian tribes and environmental groups want him to halt the construction at the border while a lawsuit challenging President Donald Trump's approval of the pipeline last year works its way through the courts.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, why did we throw money at this with this challenge still in play? Or was this just a judge canceling out of the blue? If we knew this was an active court case, that was a pretty bone headed move by Kenney.

This was out of the blue. A judge basically flexing his muscles, because the court cases themselves are pretty weak.

The hearing for the court cases are going on today. TC Energy planned for these ones.

[DiracSpike]

This judge has ruled every time against Keystone. Clearly a political play.

I would HOPE there's some kind of appeal route here, it seems insane that a regional judge can continually stop a multi billion dollar international strategic infrastructure project. I fully expect this clown to cancel the border crossing permit too, why wouldn't he.

Post edit: I think we're facked here boys and girls. This pipeline never gets built. With the timing of the announcement by Kenney two weeks ago I thought he must know something we didn't since this hearing was looming today. Guess not. One of the most studied pipelines in history gets the final strangulation because a political judge in Billings Montana doesn't think they did a good enough job examining what would happen to endangered fish. Years of more unnecessary pain and despair for our province over freaking sturgeon. What a world.

[Regorium]

Arguably this is pretty fixable. The Army Corps probably aren't too happy with a random federal judge just invalidating their work for basically no reason, and they can go back and consider the sturgeon pretty easily - although the next invalidation will be a random endangered squirrel or something.

It's very similar to the TMX ruling last year regarding the environmental aspect for looking at killer whales, where the NEB/CER just went back and re-did their analysis on killer whales in a month.

The big one is the US version of the "duty to consult" for FN's, which is the crux of the hearings going on today. Same judge, so definitely way more risk there.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Arguably this is pretty fixable. The Army Corps probably aren't too happy with a random federal judge just invalidating their work for basically no reason, and they can go back and consider the sturgeon pretty easily - although the next invalidation will be a random endangered squirrel or something.

It's very similar to the TMX ruling last year regarding the environmental aspect for looking at killer whales, where the NEB/CER just went back and re-did their analysis on killer whales in a month.

The big one is the US version of the "duty to consult" for FN's, which is the crux of the hearings going on today. Same judge, so definitely way more risk there.

This is what makes me think this is toast. Revoked again, delayed a year, Joe Biden's corpse wins in November, game over.

[burn_this_city]

Biden hasn't come out against the pipeline, if there's shovels in the ground I think they turn a blind eye. The other Democrats were staunchly opposed, but based on the economy they could be desperate for some construction spending this year and next.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Biden hasn't come out against the pipeline, if there's shovels in the ground I think they turn a blind eye. The other Democrats were staunchly opposed, but based on the economy they could be desperate for some construction spending this year and next.

With production in Mexico/Venezuela continuing to plummet - they might have some refineries getting thirsty for some heavy

So maybe there's hope even with Dem's in charge

[OldDutch]

Depends on VP pick. If it is an AOC type or is, good luck. My thought with Feel the Bern stepping aside there was a deal there. Socialist Enviro VP pick.

That would also possibly save Trump. Having a shrieking AOC that we need to shut down what economy is left along with a geriatric Pres would probably kill the ticket.

[Tyler]

AOC is the best. America would be lucky to have her as VP.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Depends on VP pick. If it is an AOC type or is, good luck. My thought with Feel the Bern stepping aside there was a deal there. Socialist Enviro VP pick.

That would also possibly save Trump. Having a shrieking AOC that we need to shut down what economy is left along with a geriatric Pres would probably kill the ticket.

Fortunately, she is only 30, so she can't be on the ticket as VP. Vice President also has to be 35 or older, since they need to be able to be President.

[DiracSpike]

The Lawyer for the Sierra Club (biased) seems to think this nullifies all water crossings.
Sonya Savage (biased) seems to think this a narrow decision on 2 water crossings.
BNN Bloomberg says this could push the construction timeline a year, and that the decision was a surprise but also likely to stand up to appeal. Kenney apparently said yesterday that he's been assured the Presidential permit was completely lawful and compliant but who the hell even knows anymore, I'm sure he also didn't think they'd get some unclear number of stream crossings invalidated either.

I don't know, I have a bad feeling. They better have a strong and timely appeal process available or it sounds like we're boned and this was a massive #### up unless Trump somehow gets re-elected. At least TMX has started pipe laying around Edmonton, looks like we'll have to access the US Gulf coast the hard way by tankers from Vancouver through the Panama canal and back up. And that might not happen either.

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

unless Trump somehow gets re-elected.

Somehow? I assume he's a shoo-in at this point.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Fortunately, she is only 30, so she can't be on the ticket as VP. Vice President also has to be 35 or older, since they need to be able to be President.

Don't let facts get in the way of people's fear for the "economy".

Western economies are 2/3rds+ services...and linked to population and freedom of choice. As long as those things exist, the economy will evolve. Trust me...I'll always be able to find someone to dig the resources out of the ground to feed those services as much as the people that currently live adjacent or above to them feel a birthright to them.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by DownhillGoat

Somehow? I assume he's a shoo-in at this point.

Yeah, I've been of this opinion lately too. Anyone else thats running, do they really want to be the one to pick up the pieces at this point?

[transplant99]

Feds pledge 1.7B towards orphan well remediation.