The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[David Struch]

$6.375 x 5

Or

$6.75 x 6

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DJones

This is how I see it too. Him getting 9 million seems insane to me. 8 for max term imo.

It shouldn't. People rarely even think about the reason guys like Stone, Kucherov etc have signed relatively low AAV deals and it's not because of a great GM doing his thing. These guys are playing in states with non-existent tax rates. It has nothing to do with fair value and shouldn't be used as a comparable for Tkachuk at all.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

It shouldn't. People rarely even think about the reason guys like Stone, Kucherov etc have signed relatively low AAV deals and it's not because of a great GM doing his thing. These guys are playing in states with non-existent tax rates. It has nothing to do with fair value and shouldn't be used as a comparable for Tkachuk at all.

Kucherov shouldn't be a comparable for Tkachuk regardless of his state's tax rate. Kucherov has five straight seasons of 29 goals or more, and hasn't scored fewer than 85 in the last three years.

Tkachuk's comparables have been brought up many times, and they don't make $9M a year.

This board is pretty adamant Leon Draisaitl is a bad value contract at $8.5M because he doesn't produce at a 100-point level when he's in the middle or away from McDavid.

We're in a rush to pay Matthew Tkachuk more than Leon Draisaitl for... No reason. Potential? I don't think so.

I remember when Gio's ask started with a 9. He didn't get it. If Tkachuk is asking for 9, he won't get it. And I suspect he knows that.

[Monahammer]

Why compare to any external teams when we've already established that:
A) Johnny had more impressive seasons before his second contract than tkachuk has had
B) Tkachuk hasn't yet shown he can drive an offensive line on his own
C) Johnny's 6 year contract was worth 9.6% of the cap at the time.

I think that immediately sets his maximum worth to this team at ~7.6 per season at 6 years. That's if you believe he is as valuable to team success as Johnny. I think most would argue he is still (at this point) slightly less valuable to this success.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

It shouldn't. People rarely even think about the reason guys like Stone, Kucherov etc have signed relatively low AAV deals and it's not because of a great GM doing his thing. These guys are playing in states with non-existent tax rates. It has nothing to do with fair value and shouldn't be used as a comparable for Tkachuk at all.

Those guys make more than any other winger except Ovechkin and Kane. And they are in a 4 way tie for 12th place in the league. I think "relatively low" is a bit of an oversell.

Would they have cost more here? Sure. But there are a whole host of other factors, including the fact they are better, and in Stone's case, was a pending UFA and in Kucherov's case, was by far the best forward on the team when he signed.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Kucherov shouldn't be a comparable for Tkachuk regardless of his state's tax rate. Kucherov has five straight seasons of 29 goals or more, and hasn't scored fewer than 85 in the last three years.

Tkachuk's comparables have been brought up many times, and they don't make $9M a year.

This board is pretty adamant Leon Draisaitl is a bad value contract at $8.5M because he doesn't produce at a 100-point level when he's in the middle or away from McDavid.

We're in a rush to pay Matthew Tkachuk more than Leon Draisaitl for... No reason. Potential? I don't think so.

I remember when Gio's ask started with a 9. He didn't get it. If Tkachuk is asking for 9, he won't get it. And I suspect he knows that.

Different time. Different economics. All these guys are far different players, none of them are any less important to their teams success. I'm not buying into a bunch comparable players brought up on CP as justification for a lower contract either. There's no way anyone is telling Tkachuk he's worth less than Draisatl when he's younger, doesn't play with an offensive phenom to pad his numbers and is just an all around better hockey player.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those guys make more than any other winger except Ovechkin and Kane. And they are in a 4 way tie for 12th place in the league. I think "relatively low" is a bit of an oversell.

Would they have cost more here? Sure. But there are a whole host of other factors, including the fact they are better, and in Stone's case, was a pending UFA and in Kucherov's case, was by far the best forward on the team when he signed.

We all know they are better players than Tkachuk. Kucherov and Stone would both be making 10.5-11.5 in Canada or in a higher taxed state. Period. I'm not sure what exactly you're getting at to be honest. I just don't like people throwing out bogus comparables from completely different situations. Kucherov and Stone make zero sense in this situation and are only being used to recklessly drive home the argument that Tkachuk is somehow not worth what he will end up getting paid.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

We all know they are better players than Tkachuk. Kucherov and Stone would both be making 10.5-11.5 in Canada or in a higher taxed state. Period. I'm not sure what exactly you're getting at to be honest. I just don't like people throwing out bogus comparables from completely different situations. Kucherov and Stone make zero sense in this situation and are only being used to recklessly drive home the argument that Tkachuk is somehow not worth what he will end up getting paid.

So, who are your comparables?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

So, who are your comparables?

Points wise - Teravainen is close. Ehlers and Palat are slightly behind, but close PPG. After that you are going back too many years probably.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Points wise - Teravainen is close. Ehlers and Palat are slightly behind, but close PPG. After that you are going back too many years probably.

Teravainen: $5.4
Palat $5.3
Ehlers $6
Nylander $6.9.

I don't see where Calgary pays this player $8M. I just don't.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Teravainen: $5.4
Palat $5.3
Ehlers $6
Nylander $6.9.

I don't see where Calgary pays this player $8M. I just don't.

How about if he demands it and holds out?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

How about if he demands it and holds out?

He sits. Which I think is inevitable.

Again, show me a comparable that gets a RFA like Tkachuk the same percentage of the cap that Johnny got. If he’s demanding more than that, it isn’t much different than someone asking for $500k over market price on their house because it has more character.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

How about if he demands it and holds out?

Then he's going to be waiting a long time. And like Nylander, he will find the number he finally gets is pretty close to the number he could have had sans holdout.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Different time. Different economics. All these guys are far different players, none of them are any less important to their teams success. I'm not buying into a bunch comparable players brought up on CP as justification for a lower contract either. There's no way anyone is telling Tkachuk he's worth less than Draisatl when he's younger, doesn't play with an offensive phenom to pad his numbers and is just an all around better hockey player.

Tkachuk's not a centre, and that by itself is enough to make Draisaitl non-comparable. Only RFA wingers are comparable. Nylander can also play centre, so you can't use him, either.

In any case, Tkachuk won't get what he thinks he is entitled to, just because he thinks he is entitled to it. The Flames will make a fair offer based on market value, and if he doesn't like it, he will hold out. He will hate that, and a compromise will be reached.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Tkachuk's not a centre, and that by itself is enough to make Draisaitl non-comparable. Only RFA wingers are comparable. Nylander can also play centre, so you can't use him, either.

In any case, Tkachuk won't get what he thinks he is entitled to, just because he thinks he is entitled to it. The Flames will make a fair offer based on market value, and if he doesn't like it, he will hold out. He will hate that, and a compromise will be reached.

Leon Draisaitl is also not really a centre. I mean, he only plays the position sporadically, and does the vast majority of his scoring on the wing, the powerplay and in 3v3 OT.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Leon Draisaitl is also not really a centre. I mean, he only plays the position sporadically, and does the vast majority of his scoring on the wing, the powerplay and in 3v3 OT.

True but that’s mostly because he’s young and their depth is terrible. In all likelihood he forecasts as the #2 centre behind McDavid.

Tkachuk is never playing centre

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

True but that’s mostly because he’s young and their depth is terrible. In all likelihood he forecasts as the #2 centre behind McDavid.

Tkachuk is never playing centre

I doubt he is taken off mcdavid's wing. Too much chemistry. He's a winger who failed at C in the NHL, much like the kid who was drafted just after him.

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[JTech780]

I think $7.5m is the low end of what Tkachuk gets.

If we are comparing Tkachuk and Gaudreau, which I think is fair, they had similar points in their contract years with Tkachuk having 1 less point. Gaudreau averaged 2.5 minutes more a night than Tkachuk, and Gaudreau was 2 years older than Tkachuk.

Tkachuk also brings a lot of intangibles, that I realize are hard to quantify and hard to bring into negotiations, but Tkachuk is a leader in that locker room and is most likely the next captain.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by JTech780

I think $7.5m is the low end of what Tkachuk gets.

If we are comparing Tkachuk and Gaudreau, which I think is fair, they had similar points in their contract years with Tkachuk having 1 less point. Gaudreau averaged 2.5 minutes more a night than Tkachuk, and Gaudreau was 2 years older than Tkachuk.

Tkachuk also brings a lot of intangibles, that I realize are hard to quantify and hard to bring into negotiations, but Tkachuk is a leader in that locker room and is most likely the next captain.

Gaudreau was 6th in the league in scoring.

Tkachuk was 4th... on his own team.


Tkachuk is a good player, definitely in the same class as Draisaitl even taking into account the McDingus boost, but he doesn’t deserve close to 8.5 on anything that isn’t an 8 year deal.

Mark Stone is better than Tkachuk and over the next 8 years he should also be better than Tkachuk, but it will be close. He gets paid 9.5. So we will say a UFA year for Tkachuk is worth 9.5.

When I thought through the Gaudreau/Monahan deals, I felt like the RFA years came at about a 33% discount. So his RFA years are worth 6.66.

So he should get one of these deals:

3x6.66

5x7.2
6x7.6
7x7.9
8.1x8

Give or take a few hundred thousand per year

[calgarygringo]

It will be interesting to see where his head is at. Too much and the team takes a hit and tells you he is all aboit me. Stay in the right zone allows for a more competetive team. Those 9-10 plus million player teams dont seem to fair as well in the end. There needs to be a fair amount but the sky is not the limit unfortunately.