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Old 01-24-2021, 08:07 AM   #5941
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Energy East is an absolutely terrible pipeline because it tolls were so expensive. It went up to $17 to Saint John uncommitted. That might work in $90-110 barrel oil but not $50-70. There isn't even that much demand left in Eastern Canada as Ontario as well Montreal is almost entirely Canadian.

Northern Gateway had huge political opposition that crossed traditional lines kinda of like the current opposition to coal mining. Losing the weakly supporting pro-pipeline people would have been a disaster and there's no guarantee we would have won them back. It could have been a fire that engulfed pipelines and the oil industry.
Canada should be able to export resources within it's own borders more easily than to foreign nations? Maybe Energy East wasn't ideal but surely there is an economical way to share our abundant resources within the country rather than importing from Saudi Arabia.
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Old 01-24-2021, 09:16 AM   #5942
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Canada should be able to export resources within it's own borders more easily than to foreign nations? Maybe Energy East wasn't ideal but surely there is an economical way to share our abundant resources within the country rather than importing from Saudi Arabia.
Are you suggesting we as Canadians stop our support of the royal family and all they have to offer? Its called peace keeping Red Slinger and we Canadians can be damn proud of it. Imagine the insurrections if the world stopped propping up the family.

Gosh they could start fighting for equality and basic human rights. Imagine if they stopped using oil money to prop up terrorist groups to keep their stranglehold on the region? The terrorists need to eat too! It's just good to see Canada doing our part, and then going above and beyond with the supply of weapons and military equipment.

What's the alternative? Money going to western Canada? #### those guys, I bet they even let women vote.
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Old 01-24-2021, 10:06 AM   #5943
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Canada should be able to export resources within it's own borders more easily than to foreign nations? Maybe Energy East wasn't ideal but surely there is an economical way to share our abundant resources within the country rather than importing from Saudi Arabia.
How much refining capacity does Canada have for heavy oil that is used to refine foreign oil?

My understanding is that refining capacity for light oil (Saudi oil) can't be allocated to heavy oil.

So how much of an argument is their to be made that we should replace foreign oil imports with domestic oil?

We are a net exporter by some margin, and produce more than we consume as a country.

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Old 01-24-2021, 11:23 AM   #5944
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Northern Gateway was a project planned for $100+ oil and by the time approval, looked to be something Enbridge was shelving anyway.



The conditions that were put on approval actually were binding unlike other projects the NEB overlooked. Cost was increasing. First Nations groups along the route weren't all on board. When compared to TMX, it was going cost more, move less, and didn't have the same shipping contracts after China backed away. Add all that on top of oil prices collapsing in 2014 and Northern Gateway doesn't become a big priority it seems. The drop in prices coming with giving up ownership stakes seems like it would be particularly tough on the project given it rising to almost $8B to build (and would have undoubtedly gone up) https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/is-...lved-1.2965355

This was all during a CPC government as well. The change in tone and support was noted at the time https://globalnews.ca/news/1409132/g...ortant-kenney/
Still supporting getting energy to market, but noticeably standoffish about NG in particular. We went from:


“We think it’s obviously in the vital interests of Canada, and in the vital interests of British Columbia,” said Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Northern Gateway in August 2012."

to

“No particular project is a national priority,” said Kenney in 2014. After they passed off everything to the NEB, who really didn't have anything to do but wait for Enbridge to fulfill the conditions.

But the Conservatives have put nobody forward to defend their position on Northern Gateway since the government announced its conditions for approval of the pipeline on June 17.

Kenney said the Conservative party didn’t want to put a representative forward since licensing the pipeline project is a regulatory matter overseen by the National Energy Board, not the federal government.

So even before the Liberals were elected, and long before C-48, nothing was actually going ahead with Northern Gateway, it was already paralyzed it and put it on life support with restrictive conditions and active lawsuits. The Conservatives had already chosen to not use up any of their political capital in BC to fight for the project, the courts sent the approval back to the (now Liberal) cabinet due to lack of proper consultation (one of the conditions that was part of the approval) and now the Liberals could gain political capital by officially pulling the plug. C-48 may have been the symbolic end to the project, but it was flat-lined before that ever happened.

Then when it came down to it, Trudeau and the Liberals backed TMX, which had the better economics, already had the route secured, and had better shipping contracts in place. In doing so, they gave up whatever political capital they built up in BC and then some, and they just get #### on in Alberta anyways. The Liberals had more to gain politically by stopping both Northern Gateway and TMX. But they killed the project that was pretty much dead (even before they got to power and even before the court case sent it back), and supported the one that was most likely to succeed.

There definitely seems to be a myth around Northern Gateway, and particularly the Liberals role in it not getting built. C-48 is treated like the pipeline was shovel ready and tankers were just waiting offshore ready to be filled. The pro-pipeline federal government washed their hands of the project back in 2014, and it's fate was pretty much sealed after that when the party that campaigned against it came into the fold.
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Old 01-24-2021, 03:03 PM   #5945
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How much refining capacity does Canada have for heavy oil that is used to refine foreign oil?

There is probably capacity to use more heavy oil.
Cenovus oil shipment leaves West Coast bound for eastern refineries — via Panama Canal


Quote:
Irving Oil's application included a proposal for the tankers to transport oil from a terminal in Burnaby, B.C., through the Panama Canal and on to Irving Oil's refinery in Saint John.


The company said at the beginning of May that it wanted to increase the mix of Canadian crude it uses, which at that time was in the range of 20 per cent.
Increasing the amount of Canadian oil that the refinery uses would displace the crude imports the company gets from around the world, but it wasn't clear which shipments might be affected.



An official with the refinery said at the time that it uses a "significant" amount of oil from the United States.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...anal-1.5635939
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:17 PM   #5946
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Canada should be able to export resources within it's own borders more easily than to foreign nations? Maybe Energy East wasn't ideal but surely there is an economical way to share our abundant resources within the country rather than importing from Saudi Arabia.
Eastern Canadian refineries are generally on the less complex side so they generally need a fair bit of light oil for optimal throughput when demand for oil products is high. However our light crude is generally in good demand locally so there's no real benefit in exporting it to Eastern Canada so there will be times that Eastern Canadian refineries have no choice but to import oil. Also the US is by far the largest source of oil imports in Canada.
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Old 01-25-2021, 12:02 AM   #5947
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There is probably capacity to use more heavy oil.
Cenovus oil shipment leaves West Coast bound for eastern refineries — via Panama Canal





https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...anal-1.5635939
Definitely agree there is more capacity, just curious if anyone actually knows how much.
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Old 01-25-2021, 02:17 AM   #5948
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Canada should be able to export resources within it's own borders more easily than to foreign nations? Maybe Energy East wasn't ideal but surely there is an economical way to share our abundant resources within the country rather than importing from Saudi Arabia.
Why wasn't it ideal? Despite have the 3rd most oil reserves on the planet we buy up to 70% of our oil from foreign country's(some of them deplorable) Energy East not only would remove the need to import oil we could sell a bunch more to western Europe.

Canada should be self-sufficient and an oil power. This is total failure
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Old 01-25-2021, 11:23 AM   #5949
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Why wasn't it ideal?

Was far and away the most expensive pipeline project, and was planned when oil was $100+. There was a time when TMX, KXL, and Line 3 were all 'a go' which meant those factors combined with a surge in pipeline capacity, making the economics of the project even worse.



KXL was the far more economic line for TC, so walking away from Energy East was the logical choice at the time.
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Old 01-25-2021, 03:26 PM   #5950
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Small oil producers reach "net negative" emissions.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bak...eith-1.5884107

Carbon offsets are a bit of a shell game IMO, but it's nice to see some innovation happening here. It's going to be pretty lucrative if you can sell offsets like this assuming the carbon tax hits $170 a ton.
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Old 01-25-2021, 04:32 PM   #5951
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How much refining capacity does Canada have for heavy oil that is used to refine foreign oil?

My understanding is that refining capacity for light oil (Saudi oil) can't be allocated to heavy oil.

So how much of an argument is their to be made that we should replace foreign oil imports with domestic oil?

We are a net exporter by some margin, and produce more than we consume as a country.
You’re right, eastern refineries are tooled for light oil and not sour heavy like WCS is. So the Saint John component of energy east would have been to export that heavy to markets that do need it, namely the us gulf coast.

That’s not to say we couldn’t completely supply eastern Canada’s light requirements tho, we could. The product that comes from most oil sands mines is synthetic crude oil, which is upgraded heavy bitumen. This blend has all the same properties as the light WTI that these refineries import now. So while the conversation around pipelines tends to center on heavy crude because of the differential we have no shortage of light volumes that could completely supplant current east coast imports.
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Old 01-25-2021, 04:55 PM   #5952
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You’re right, eastern refineries are tooled for light oil and not sour heavy like WCS is. So the Saint John component of energy east would have been to export that heavy to markets that do need it, namely the us gulf coast.

That’s not to say we couldn’t completely supply eastern Canada’s light requirements tho, we could. The product that comes from most oil sands mines is synthetic crude oil, which is upgraded heavy bitumen. This blend has all the same properties as the light WTI that these refineries import now. So while the conversation around pipelines tends to center on heavy crude because of the differential we have no shortage of light volumes that could completely supplant current east coast imports.
Plus if we had a piped outlet to a premium priced light oil market, it would likely justify either construction or expansion of upgrading capacity here in Alberta. Which is high value, highly paid manufacturing.
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Old 01-25-2021, 05:23 PM   #5953
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You’re right, eastern refineries are tooled for light oil and not sour heavy like WCS is. So the Saint John component of energy east would have been to export that heavy to markets that do need it, namely the us gulf coast.

That’s not to say we couldn’t completely supply eastern Canada’s light requirements tho, we could. The product that comes from most oil sands mines is synthetic crude oil, which is upgraded heavy bitumen. This blend has all the same properties as the light WTI that these refineries import now. So while the conversation around pipelines tends to center on heavy crude because of the differential we have no shortage of light volumes that could completely supplant current east coast imports.
The East isn't a captive market so they're going to want something cheap and synthetic crude isn't cheap.
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Old 01-25-2021, 05:31 PM   #5954
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Plus if we had a piped outlet to a premium priced light oil market, it would likely justify either construction or expansion of upgrading capacity here in Alberta. Which is high value, highly paid manufacturing.
Yeah it’s a good point. I know suncor, syncrude, cnrl, and shells old mine upgrade but not sure about kearl or the others.

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The East isn't a captive market so they're going to want something cheap and synthetic crude isn't cheap.
Well right now they’re importing premium WTI and Brent so if they’re searching out cheap grades they’re doing a pretty crappy job.
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Old 01-25-2021, 06:09 PM   #5955
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Didn't Irving Oil also discuss building an oil sands upgrader so it could be used in Canada?
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Old 01-25-2021, 06:11 PM   #5956
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The East isn't a captive market so they're going to want something cheap and synthetic crude isn't cheap.
Current pricing is roughly $49 for synthetic and $56 for Brent, which is what Atlantic seabourne crude prices off.

Any place you can dock a ship is a premium market compared to Alberta.
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Old 01-25-2021, 06:31 PM   #5957
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Current pricing is roughly $49 for synthetic and $56 for Brent, which is what Atlantic seabourne crude prices off.

Any place you can dock a ship is a premium market compared to Alberta.
A $7 differential isn't going to make up the difference between pipeline/rail vs tanker.
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Old 01-25-2021, 09:09 PM   #5958
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But the producer takes the hit on the differential. Refiners like to be on the end of pipelines because it means producers have to sell to them. Right now the east has to compete with every other waterside refinery complex in the world for seaborne shipments. With a pipeline from the west they dont have to compete with anyone, it'd would be much cheaper for them to buy from us, no question.
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Old 01-26-2021, 01:15 PM   #5959
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Lol. The Onion

https://www.theonion.com/tearful-jus...ine-1846111163
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Old 01-28-2021, 09:47 PM   #5960
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