American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Envitro]

So Captain Sockboy conceded on KXL so that the Americans would allow for Canadian exemptions in the "buy american" plan, but here we are and Canada gets the shaft again...

Good job sparky!

[CaptainCrunch]

Biden never said that he would allow exceptions if I read the phone call right, he said he would consult with the GOC. That basically means he's going to warn Justin that he's going ahead with the provisions.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Envitro

So Captain Sockboy conceded on KXL so that the Americans would allow for Canadian exemptions in the "buy american" plan, but here we are and Canada gets the shaft again...

Good job sparky!

Just so you are clear on this, all levels of government have rules in place on procurement, where the local market is the primary source, the state level is the secondary source, and the national level is the tertiary source. Going to an international provider usually requires substantial proof that an American interest cannot provide the product or service. This is nothing new and would not impact anything in any way. This is just an executive order to restate the obvious based on rules that exist everywhere and not intended to shaft anyone.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by New Era

Please stop. You really don't have a clue what you are talking about. Disinformation like this is very dangerous.

Care to point out what I said that was incorrect?

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by Envitro

So Captain Sockboy conceded on KXL so that the Americans would allow for Canadian exemptions in the "buy american" plan, but here we are and Canada gets the shaft again...

Good job sparky!

Captain Sockboy?

[ResAlien]

We’re all out of American politics outrage so we’re piping in Canadian made outrage instead. Sounds like Biden isn’t doing the america first thing right.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I look at distributing the vaccine like boarding an airplane.

There's the statically fastest way to board a place.

There's the zone method where high priority passengers get to board first (need help, small children, high paying aka business & frequent flyer passengers).

Then there's the most efficient SouthWest way, line up and every seat is open method.

Is SouthWest's model the fastest? No.
Does SouthWest's model make everyone happy? The stress of not knowing your seat until you sit down? No.
Does SouthWest have the quickest boarding times in the industry? Yes.

Do that.

Set up drive-thrus. Pull up, get jabbed, move on with your day. Don't worry about DYKWIAs. Don't worry about who is rich and who is poor. Don't worry about who is high risk and who isn't. Don't worry about who had COVID and who hasn't.

Give it to everyone as quick as possible.

Jab, Jab, Jab, voila!

to me this works if vaccine availability isn't the rate limiting step ( possibly thus in parts of the US), if there is limited vaccine I think you need to ensure better bang for buck (but not at the point of micromanaging such that vaccinations aren't happening)

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by looooob

to me this works if vaccine availability isn't the rate limiting step ( possibly thus in parts of the US), if there is limited vaccine I think you need to ensure better bang for buck (but not at the point of micromanaging such that vaccinations aren't happening)

Yeah, by the end of February the US will likely still only have enough doses of currently approved vaccines for about 15% of the population. You can't just give those to a bunch of low-risk people in the name of efficiency if you're hoping the maximize the number of lives saved.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Care to point out what I said that was incorrect?

Certainly.

Almost nowhere with regular deliveries is holding back 2nd shots.

This is disinformation because regular deliveries are not happening. If regular deliveries were happening there would be no need to delay second shots. You've repeatedly stated there are no logistical issues with the distribution of vaccine nor the amount of vaccine available, which is not just demonstrably wrong but irresponsible to suggest.

It makes no sense to keep half your doses in a freezer doing nothing when you're just going to get more the next week.

The vaccine is not arriving in a week. That is the point. The demand for the vaccine greatly exceeds the amount available. The Trump admin ####ed up and didn't order enough. They had the right to have their orders placed and filled first, but they under-ordered by tens to hundreds of millions. As a result orders from elsewhere are in the queue and causing delays in delivery and then distribution.

And in the event of a supply disruption (like Canada is seeing starting this week), you just delay the 2nd dose. The UK is delaying up to 12 weeks in order to cover more people.

Delaying or skipping the second dose is not a good idea, in any shape or form. The idea behind the second shot is to boost the immunity response and develop anti-bodies to fight off the virus. Scientists fear that delaying or skipping the second shot could work against the efficacy of the vaccine as it would allow for the virus to potentially build resistance to the vaccine or mutate like we are seeing in the UK. Funny how those concerns appear to be playing out with a more virulent mutation establishing itself in the UK where they have adopted the delay tactic. What does your doctor tell you when you get a prescription? Follow the damn instructions and take the medication as prescribed to its completion, even if you are feeling better!

And the US likely has the most stable supply in the world, so states holding back 2nd doses is asinine.

This is highly debatable if not just flat out inaccurate. The US is struggling with having enough vaccine and getting it into people's arms. This is the reality that every state is reporting. The logistics of this distribution are immense and many states are struggling with it. Those that have put a plan in place and have had success in distribution are running out of vaccine and demanding more, which is not being delivered.

The 21/28 day intervals for Pfizer/Moderna weren't determined through rigorous experimentation; the companies just went with the shortest intervals that they thought would work in order to speed up the trials and provide protection in the shortest time frame.

Yes and no. All of the trial testing has been on that cycle. That is why they have been able to claim a 95% success rate in the efficacy of the vaccine, because they administered it in a consistent and controlled way. They have no idea what the impact would be because they did not test in other intervals. They are hoping a delay would not have much impact, but scientists have warned of the potential for negative outcomes... like those in the UK where they are not following the recommended vaccine protocol and delaying the second shot. Again, scientists warned about the risks associated with delays in treatment, and those warnings are proving accurate based on the outcomes in the UK.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Itse

We've had sort of a similar phenomenon in Finland, with a new right wing anti-immigrant conservative party Perussuomalaiset exploding into one of the largest parties in the country, and they clearly moved the Overton window in Finnish politics quite a bit to a more conservative-right position. (Fiscally they're kind of right wing, but mostly just uninterested, so in that sense the change hasn't been significant.)

That said, the GOP as is really can't move much more right without outright digging out the swastikas. I think a party split right now would leave the rest of the GOP in a much more moderate position. History doesn't always repeat itself.

It also seems to me that the attack on Capitol has sent some shockwaves through the right, with a lot of people suddenly realizing they have to differentiate themselves from the actual extremists and sideline the fascists from positions of power, if not for any other reason than to prevent their own ideas to be completely drowned out among the waves of extremism.

The attack on Capitol could even mark somewhat of a turning tide globally. For example it seems to me that the Finnish media has suddenly realized they need to be a lot more critical of our local right wing populists, and our other major right wing party has suddenly been a lot less eager to side with Perussuomalaiset. (Both are currently in the opposition.)

(I think this is a temporary situation though, my personal expectation is that things have to get a lot worse before they start getting better.)

I've no doubt that the Capitol riot and the Trump presidency as a whole have sent shockwaves through the West, and the rest of the world as well. I don't believe the tide is turning on sentiment though. The tide has been turning for some time based on demographic, economic and technological trends. Populism and nationalism are responses to the structural changes those trends are driving. Those trends also march at their own pace and are difficult to change without major policy actions sustained over long periods of time. The pendulum will continue to swing back and forth within a range, but I think the range in which it will swing has shifted in ways that are going to be persistently tumultuous for Western political contexts relative to what it was in the preceding several decades.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by New Era

Certainly.

Almost nowhere with regular deliveries is holding back 2nd shots.

This is disinformation because regular deliveries are not happening. If regular deliveries were happening there would be no need to delay second shots. You've repeatedly stated there are no logistical issues with the distribution of vaccine nor the amount of vaccine available, which is not just demonstrably wrong but irresponsible to suggest.

Of course regular deliveries are happening. States are receiving allocations and deliveries of both vaccines every single week:

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/CO...uris/saz5-9hgg

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/CO...b7pe-5nws/data

And jurisdictions with far less regular or secure deliveries than the US are not holding back 2nd shots, so what I said was totally correct.

It makes no sense to keep half your doses in a freezer doing nothing when you're just going to get more the next week.

The vaccine is not arriving in a week. That is the point. The demand for the vaccine greatly exceeds the amount available. The Trump admin ####ed up and didn't order enough. They had the right to have their orders placed and filled first, but they under-ordered by tens to hundreds of millions. As a result orders from elsewhere are in the queue and causing delays in delivery and then distribution.

At this point US production is 100% destined for the US. There are no delays while doses are shipped to other countries. The US is seeing very consistent deliveries right now and in the last 5 weeks the US has received 9.4M, 8.4M, 8.3M, 8.6M, and 8.6M doses respectively. If you can point to specific evidence of states seeing large, 1+ week gaps in deliveries I'm all ears; but I've seen no evidence of that.

And in the event of a supply disruption (like Canada is seeing starting this week), you just delay the 2nd dose. The UK is delaying up to 12 weeks in order to cover more people.

Delaying or skipping the second dose is not a good idea, in any shape or form. The idea behind the second shot is to boost the immunity response and develop anti-bodies to fight off the virus. Scientists fear that delaying or skipping the second shot could work against the efficacy of the vaccine as it would allow for the virus to potentially build resistance to the vaccine or mutate like we are seeing in the UK. Funny how those concerns appear to be playing out with a more virulent mutation establishing itself in the UK where they have adopted the delay tactic. What does your doctor tell you when you get a prescription? Follow the damn instructions and take the medication as prescribed to its completion, even if you are feeling better!

No one is advocating skipping the 2nd dose. However delaying a booster shot (within a reasonable time frame) has virtually no effect on long term efficacy. And for some vaccines (AstraZeneca's and some others) it has shown to be more effective than a shorter interval. Also, the CDC recommendation allows the 2nd dose up to 6 weeks later for both vaccines.

And the US likely has the most stable supply in the world, so states holding back 2nd doses is asinine.

This is highly debatable if not just flat out inaccurate. The US is struggling with having enough vaccine and getting it into people's arms. This is the reality that every state is reporting. The logistics of this distribution are immense and many states are struggling with it. Those that have put a plan in place and have had success in distribution are running out of vaccine and demanding more, which is not being delivered.

As the links above show, the US is seeing remarkably consistent deliveries from both companies. Of course they're running out of doses, everywhere is because they're getting it into peoples' arms. That's a good thing. The idea that better distribution or coordination is going to create more doses out of thin air is flatly incorrect. The bottleneck right now is manufacturing, as it is everywhere.

The 21/28 day intervals for Pfizer/Moderna weren't determined through rigorous experimentation; the companies just went with the shortest intervals that they thought would work in order to speed up the trials and provide protection in the shortest time frame.

Yes and no. All of the trial testing has been on that cycle. That is why they have been able to claim a 95% success rate in the efficacy of the vaccine, because they administered it in a consistent and controlled way. They have no idea what the impact would be because they did not test in other intervals. They are hoping a delay would not have much impact, but scientists have warned of the potential for negative outcomes... like those in the UK where they are not following the recommended vaccine protocol and delaying the second shot. Again, scientists warned about the risks associated with delays in treatment, and those warnings are proving accurate based on the outcomes in the UK.

The Pfizer trial protocol was 19-42 days, so some participants received their 2nd dose up to 6 weeks after the first with no detected difference in efficacy between those who received their booster shot earlier or later. That's why most jurisdictions are comfortable going up to about 6 weeks for a 2nd dose where necessary. The UK is an outlier in that, but they are now primarily using the AstraZeneca vaccine where a 12-week interval proved to be more effective in the clinical trials than the protocol of 4-weeks between doses.

And speaking of dangerous disinformation... the B.1.1.7 variant was identified in September, long before vaccinations started. Trying to imply that the UK delaying their 2nd doses has something to do with that variant (as you did twice in this one post) is completely false and misleading. You might want to get a better handle on this stuff before talking down to people, telling them they don't have a clue what they're talking about, and accusing them of spreading dangerous disinformation.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I'll just leave this here.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-1...97792?mod=e2tw

[Fuzz]

LOL. New Era, Opendoor has provided a wealth of good, accurate information in the vaccine and covid threads, and we are lucky to have him doing that. Your claim of disinformation is incorrect, and your last link irrelevant to the US. You may want to just move on before you embarrass yourself.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

yeah if opendoor is spreading disinformation then I'm screwed because they are the best source of vaccine info on CP right now. Making them my #1 source of vaccine info.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Of course regular deliveries are happening. States are receiving allocations and deliveries of both vaccines every single week:

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/CO...uris/saz5-9hgg

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/CO...b7pe-5nws/data

And jurisdictions with far less regular or secure deliveries than the US are not holding back 2nd shots, so what I said was totally correct.

Not even remotely close to being accurate. Arizona is out of vaccine right now. Not even scheduling 1st responders because there is no vaccine available and no deliveries on the horizon. If there were shipments of vaccines headed this way scheduling would continue. But scheduling is disrupted, because why? No vaccine available. Same problem exists across the country. People are lining up for their scheduled appointments then left sitting in their cars because sites are out of vaccine.

At this point US production is 100% destined for the US. There are no delays while doses are shipped to other countries. The US is seeing very consistent deliveries right now and in the last 5 weeks the US has received 9.4M, 8.4M, 8.3M, 8.6M, and 8.6M doses respectively. If you can point to specific evidence of states seeing large, 1+ week gaps in deliveries I'm all ears; but I've seen no evidence of that.

Jesus Christ man, I laid out a dozen links from across the nation that shows how dire the situation is and just how bad it is. My municipality has the infrastructure to deliver, but no vaccine is available. None. We are being told that we may not see our 1st responders vaccinated for another six to eight weeks. That is already a month behind schedule, and it is all because vaccine is not available. If you're in phase three, you're now looking at fall before you can hope for a vaccine, because there isn't any available!

No one is advocating skipping the 2nd dose. However delaying a booster shot (within a reasonable time frame) has virtually no effect on long term efficacy. And for some vaccines (AstraZeneca's and some others) it has shown to be more effective than a shorter interval. Also, the CDC recommendation allows the 2nd dose up to 6 weeks later for both vaccines.

Really? The Trump administration had instructed states to use all vaccine available, with no guarantee of delivery of future doses. That is irresponsible and not a proper plan to solving the problem. Let me guess, if you're on chemo its okay to skip a treatment here or there or delay your treatment? This is beyond stupid now.

As the links above show, the US is seeing remarkably consistent deliveries from both companies. Of course they're running out of doses, everywhere is because they're getting it into peoples' arms. That's a good thing. The idea that better distribution or coordination is going to create more doses out of thin air is flatly incorrect. The bottleneck right now is manufacturing, as it is everywhere.

The "US" might be receiving doses, which according to the feds they are not, but those are not being made available to the states, who are administering the vaccination program. If the vaccine is being received by the feds, they aren't sharing that information. If they are shipping it out, is isn't making it to the states.

The Pfizer trial protocol was 19-42 days, so some participants received their 2nd dose up to 6 weeks after the first with no detected difference in efficacy between those who received their booster shot earlier or later. That's why most jurisdictions are comfortable going up to about 6 weeks for a 2nd dose where necessary. The UK is an outlier in that, but they are now primarily using the AstraZeneca vaccine where a 12-week interval proved to be more effective in the clinical trials than the protocol of 4-weeks between doses.

Yeah, don't try and apply the interval from AstraZeneca to Pfizer or Moderna. The difference between the two is 42 days, which is twice the longest period for the clinical on the two vaccines in use in the US. People should be getting that booster in the three to four week span like directed, otherwise they put their vaccination at risk.

And speaking of dangerous disinformation... the B.1.1.7 variant was identified in September, long before vaccinations started. Trying to imply that the UK delaying their 2nd doses has something to do with that variant (as you did twice in this one post) is completely false and misleading. You might want to get a better handle on this stuff before talking down to people, telling them they don't have a clue what they're talking about, and accusing them of spreading dangerous disinformation.

A minor correction to your claim. The variant was identified on December 14th, a week after vaccinations began, and they estimate the mutation began sometime in September. The scientists trying to solve this problem identified the risk of delaying the booster and predicted possible mutation, like the one in the UK (not the mutation itself but a similar outcome). They made those predictions based on what they saw in trials, and the UK mutation is exactly what they predicted but unrelated. The variance in vaccine makes this issue that much harder to track and control.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

LOL. New Era, Opendoor has provided a wealth of good, accurate information in the vaccine and covid threads, and we are lucky to have him doing that. Your claim of disinformation is incorrect, and your last link irrelevant to the US. You may want to just move on before you embarrass yourself.

The last link was to show this is a consistent problem all over. I agree with opendoor on vaccine production challenges, but the logistical challenges facing the states is a different challenge. The states are not receiving vaccine. This is no different from when Trump was saying there were no shortages of PPE, yet every state was crying for supplies. The feds may have it (they claim they don't) but they sure as hell aren't distributing it to the states in need. Opendoor may be providing good information as to what is happing in Canada, but he's wrong as hell about the US. It's his claim in reading a CDC report (are they credible at the moment?) versus the actual boots on the ground dealing with the problem. Again, the Biden team has admitted that they are starting almost from scratch and that is consistent with what the states are saying as well. The logistic support for this has been a massive failure.

[CaptainCrunch]

Looks like waivers used in the past to buy foreign goods under national security etc won't be used.


Domestic products on automobiles which used to be 50% will now be 75%.


Biden wants to have raw materials made in the states, was specific about steel. Wants more manufacturing in the states especially automotives


Government will buy all electrical vehicles, they can only be made domestically.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Domestic products on automobiles which used to be 50% will now be 75%.

Is that even possible?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by New Era

Is that even possible?

If they start manufacturing a lot more components in the States it probably is.


He wants a million manufacturing jobs. Building domestically can make it happen.


Also and I missed part of it, the formula for the components which used to be built around the value of components (use a lot of cheap components to get to the 50%) is being changed.


The Liberals should be really concerned around the statements concerning Steel and other raw components. For example he specifically named steel in infrastructure must be american steel

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I look at distributing the vaccine like boarding an airplane.

There's the statically fastest way to board a place.

There's the zone method where high priority passengers get to board first (need help, small children, high paying aka business & frequent flyer passengers).

Then there's the most efficient SouthWest way, line up and every seat is open method.

Is SouthWest's model the fastest? No.
Does SouthWest's model make everyone happy? The stress of not knowing your seat until you sit down? No.
Does SouthWest have the quickest boarding times in the industry? Yes.

Do that.

Set up drive-thrus. Pull up, get jabbed, move on with your day. Don't worry about DYKWIAs. Don't worry about who is rich and who is poor. Don't worry about who is high risk and who isn't. Don't worry about who had COVID and who hasn't.

Give it to everyone as quick as possible.

Jab, Jab, Jab, voila!

If you had enough vaccine everywhere that would make sense but they dont, think southwest airlines but only 1/10th of the passengers get a seat and of the rest that have to stay behind many will die waiting for the next plane