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Old 06-01-2020, 04:10 PM   #21141
agulati
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Originally Posted by looooob View Post
the number of active cases dropped by quite a bit though, both in the Calgary zone (309) and province wide (400- lowest since 25 March)
Definitely very good on that front. Also that the outbreaks that have happened seem to be tackled and controlled before going out of control lately.

The case increase is a sign of the reaction of Phase 1 openings though.

Dr. Hinshaw emphasized
1. Social distancing
2. Avoiding sharing food/utensils/drinks
3. Keeping meetings/gatherings to outdoors as much as possible
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:17 PM   #21142
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Originally Posted by agulati View Post

The case increase is a sign of the reaction of Phase 1 openings though.

Dr. Hinshaw emphasized
1. Social distancing
2. Avoiding sharing food/utensils/drinks
3. Keeping meetings/gatherings to outdoors as much as possible
I don't disagree with the point above (and didn't hear her talk today so maybe it was specifically addressed) but I suppose there are direct and indirect consequences of Phase 1 opening (meaning- are these latest bump in numbers - although on the heels of good weekend numbers- specifically linked to venues that opened up (restaurants, hair, malls etc) or is it a combination of the opening, shutdown fatigue, good general numbers etc- that have just allowed a bit of (for lack of a better word- not sure its quite what I mean) complaceny set in?


for sure I'm going to keep to the outdoors as much as possible and remain hopeful that things such as kids sports outside can be liberalized as summer moves along
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:22 PM   #21143
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Seems the obvious answer is Alberta has been doing the most testing and is getting more minor and asymptomatic cases. Less testing gives a higher death rate (statistically, but not true death rate).



There's also the part that in Alberta, anyone can get a test symptoms or not. So more testing leads to more people knowing they have it even if symptoms are mild and then being able to avoid people.



That's a big part of why South Korea did well, test test test, isolate.



I found it baffling early on when people were saying getting tested didn't matter, if you have symptoms stay home. No, getting tested absolutely matters.
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:35 PM   #21144
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True - one thing that baffles me a bit is the death rate among confirmed cases.

For instance:

Alberta has had 7010 cases, only 143 deaths (2%)
BC has had 2573 cases, and 164 deaths (6.4%)
Ontario has had 28,264 cases, and 2,276 deaths (8%)
Quebec has had 51,354 cases, and 4661 deaths (9%)


So why is one 3-4 more likely to die in the other provinces than Alberta? Either the population is much less healthy, totally different (older) cohorts are getting it, or they are not catching nearly as many total cases that are less severe than here. Which is it?
Alberta is younger on average than the other provinces.

Alberta is likely out testing the other provinces and therefore getting a higher total than would be expected if the four provinces were testing at the same rate.
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:37 PM   #21145
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Anybody else’s offices or workplaces reopening yet?
Phased reopening for us with limited staff starting June 15.
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:44 PM   #21146
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Originally Posted by Bunk View Post
True - one thing that baffles me a bit is the death rate among confirmed cases.

For instance:

Alberta has had 7010 cases, only 143 deaths (2%)
BC has had 2573 cases, and 164 deaths (6.4%)
Ontario has had 28,264 cases, and 2,276 deaths (8%)
Quebec has had 51,354 cases, and 4661 deaths (9%)


So why is one 3-4 more likely to die in the other provinces than Alberta? Either the population is much less healthy, totally different (older) cohorts are getting it, or they are not catching nearly as many total cases that are less severe than here. Which is it?
Number of cases has more to do with amount of testing. Alberta does a lot more testing per capita than other places, so they have more reported cases:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid...ions-1.5520812

BC likely has more deaths/infection as the care homes got hit very hard early on, and almost all deaths in BC were residents of care homes.
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Old 06-01-2020, 05:34 PM   #21147
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I think it goes back to infection levels being on a knife edge. You go one way, and you look roses, a hair the other direction and it blows up pretty quick. Quebec just had those extra little factors that pushed them over the edge. They do look to have dropping numbers early May, so that's encouraging. But re-opening could be trouble.
It also comes down to starting conditions. If they had 10 times the initial cases as a result of travel than the entire curve will be 10 times higher even if identical containment measures are used.
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Old 06-01-2020, 07:06 PM   #21148
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It also comes down to starting conditions. If they had 10 times the initial cases as a result of travel than the entire curve will be 10 times higher even if identical containment measures are used.
Ya, it looks like they both had very few, then a 10 fold increase overnight. But Quebec had 4x as many.


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Last edited by Fuzz; 06-01-2020 at 07:09 PM.
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Old 06-01-2020, 08:02 PM   #21149
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well.. after the protests today, I assume the second wave is inevitable.
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