The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

When the Flames were terrible, yes, as Iginla went so did the flames. But when the Flames were viable contenders, there was more than one guy. When they added Kipper, the team went from a non playoff team with a 50 goal scorer, to a playoff team with a 50 goal scorer. And when Iginla struggled, the Flames had a backstop. During both of their tenures, Kipper was arguably as important than Iginla.

The team makeup is different than when Iginla was here, but Tkachuk is the second best offensive player on the roster. The Flames are absolutely dependent on him to be in contention...

I still think that is debatable. At worst, it's completely false. Tkachuk is probably the second or third best offensive player on the team with Monahan, but that is just one aspect of how the game is played and won. You set a lot of emphasis on Kiprusoff’s importance to Iginla’s Flames as an appropriate analogue for gauging Tkachuk’s value, but I think this is disingenuous, because Kiprusoff had NOTHING to do with offense. Giordano is a better player than Tkachuk, and he is much more important to the team. Monahan is the Flames’s top-line centre, and easily more important to the team. Lindholm is a more well rounded player than Tkachuk, and is arguably just as important to the team. Tkachuk might be the second best offensive player for the Flames, but he is NOT the second best player, nor is he the second most important player on the roster.

If you subtract his 77 points last year or his 30+ goals, where is the team at in the standings? You just don't replace that offensive output with hardwork and backchecking.

They probably don’t win the Division, but I don’t think there is any doubt that the Flames would still be a playoff team. In Tkachuk’s absence his total production does not completely disappear. It is reduced by whatever is lost in his replacement: Backlund turned Joe Colborne into a 20-goal scorer, and helped Bennett to a career-high of 0.5 pts/GP in his rookie season. I am fairly confident that whomever is playing in his spots will produce. Of course Tkachuk will be missed, but not nearly as much as you suggest.

There's a reason a team with prime monahan and Gaudreau and backlund and Giordano struggled to make the playoffs: alone, they aren't enough.

Yes, and it was not a problem that Tkachuk resolved on his own. There were additional player acquisitions (Lindholm, Hanifin, Ryan, Hamonic, Andersson, Smith, Rittich) and behind the bench changes which culminated in what happened last year.

Nylander is what, the 5th best offensive player on his team? It's not even close to the same thing about who needs who more. The Flames NEED Tkachuk.

Behind Matthews, Marner and Tavares. Who else? Since Tkachuk’s importance to the team is limited by other factors than mere offense, then yes, it is in fact closer to missing Nylander than it is to missing Iginla. Subtracting Tkachuk is not nearly as devastating as subtracting Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, or possibly even Lindholm or Backlund.


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[GordonBlue]

so I took a quick look and Gaudreau signed his deal on October 10.
so still some time.

[DeluxeMoustache]

When does Valimaki’s cap hit come off? Is it once the season starts?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

When does Valimaki’s cap hit come off? Is it once the season starts?

It comes off when the cap is exceeded IIRC. And only to extent of the excess (and his salary).

[DeluxeMoustache]

I still think Tre should stand firm and it makes sense for Tkachuk as well

2 yr deal at 6.3.

Team which is a contender stays intact and doesn’t subtract a key asset, Tkachuk gets to play now, and he can try to cash in when the TV deal results in a step change in the cap

Maybe he is waiting for a few extra dollars to come available from the Valimaki contract?

But if he wants bigger dollars shorter term he can wait for them.

[Flash Walken]

Tkachuk is not going to take 12 million over 2 years after Marner just cashed a single cheque for 11 or whatever it is.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Subtracting Tkachuk is not nearly as devastating as subtracting Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, or possibly even Lindholm or Backlund.


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If he misses significant time, you will be eating crow on this one. There were many, many games last season that Tkachuk dragged the Flames into battle when they needed a boost. Make no mistake, this guy is now part of the lifeblood of the Flames and is one of the few players who brings it physically and emotionally nearly every time he suits up.

Aside from Gio, Backlund, Hamonic and possibly Bennett, there is nobody else who comes consistently close to his level of compete on the roster. There's certainly nobody else who can come close to replacing his production at this time either.

It's a brutal situation for the team and player. No sense in minimizing it.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Tkachuk is not going to take 12 million over 2 years after Marner just cashed a single cheque for 11 or whatever it is.

We will see. Tkachuk has every right to sit out as long as he wants

[getbak]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

so I took a quick look and Gaudreau signed his deal on October 10.
so still some time.

That was the World Cup year and the season started later. He signed after the final preseason game, 2 days before the season opener. The equivalent this year would be October 1.

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

When does Valimaki’s cap hit come off? Is it once the season starts?

They need to be over the cap first before they can use LTIR space -- which isn't a problem until/unless Tkachuk signs.

I believe they need to have a cap-compliant 23 player roster on October 1 (not sure on the date, I may be off by a day either way). Once that happens, they can make the necessary moves to become cap-compliant with LTIR space. Both Dube and Kylington are waiver-exempt, so they could be "sent down" for cap-compliance and then instantly recalled once Valimaki's LTIR space is available.

There can be some fancy math required to make sure a team can maximize its available LTIR space, which means there are often moves made that seem confusing on the surface.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If he misses significant time, you will be eating crow on this one. There were many, many games last season that Tkachuk dragged the Flames into battle when they needed a boost. Make no mistake, this guy is now part of the lifeblood of the Flames and is one of the few players who brings it physically and emotionally nearly every time he suits up.

Aside from Gio, Backlund, Hamonic and possibly Bennett, there is nobody else who comes consistently close to his level of compete on the roster. There's certainly nobody else who can come close to replacing his production at this time either.

It's a brutal situation for the team and player. No sense in minimizing it.

There is no sense in exaggerating it either. Simply put: Matthew Tkachuk is not one of the two most important players on the team.

I already said he would be missed—of course he will be, because he is a fantastic player. However, the Flames are good enough that even without him they will still be a playoff team.


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[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If he misses significant time, you will be eating crow on this one. There were many, many games last season that Tkachuk dragged the Flames into battle when they needed a boost. Make no mistake, this guy is now part of the lifeblood of the Flames and is one of the few players who brings it physically and emotionally nearly every time he suits up.

Aside from Gio, Backlund, Hamonic and possibly Bennett, there is nobody else who comes consistently close to his level of compete on the roster. There's certainly nobody else who can come close to replacing his production at this time either.

It's a brutal situation for the team and player. No sense in minimizing it.

Well guess who is slotting in to Tkachuk’s spot right now.

The guy who played well with Backlund and Frolik as a rookie but got deployed in bottom 6 by Gulutzan

Look at the Flames first PP unit. 5 guys all with over 20 PP points . Tkachuk wasn’t the primary focus or lifeblood of the PP, he was one of those 5 that all got points

Do you think that if they slot Bennett on the PP1 in his spot that all of the other guys get their 20 plus points but Bennett doesn’t?

We all like Tkachuk. But deployment of players does affect their production

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I still think Tre should stand firm and it makes sense for Tkachuk as well

2 yr deal at 6.3.

Team which is a contender stays intact and doesn’t subtract a key asset, Tkachuk gets to play now, and he can try to cash in when the TV deal results in a step change in the cap

Maybe he is waiting for a few extra dollars to come available from the Valimaki contract?

But if he wants bigger dollars shorter term he can wait for them.

There's no reason for him to give up a 4,5,6,7 year deal and the financial security that comes with it to roll the dice on cashing in down the road. He's likely not going to improve his production drastically over the next few years so there isn't much to gain beyond salary inflation. I know I wouldn't give up a shot at an 8 year 8.5AAV or 5 year mega deal for 2 years at 6.3. It just makes no sense.

The only way I see this happening is if he caves or panics with the season approaching.....given he has family and friends that have been through this exact same scenario, I don't see that happening and he likely already would have (I would love to be wrong though).

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

There's no reason for him to give up a 4,5,6,7 year deal and the financial security that comes with it to roll the dice on cashing in down the road. He's likely not going to improve his production drastically over the next few years so there isn't much to gain beyond salary inflation. I know I wouldn't give up a shot at an 8 year 8.5AAV or 5 year mega deal for 2 years at 6.3. It just makes no sense.

The only way I see this happening is if he caves or panics with the season approaching.....given he has family and friends that have been through this exact same scenario, I don't see that happening and he likely already would have (I would love to be wrong though).

Financial security. Haha.

Yeah a guy guaranteed over 12 million over 2 years is really going to be living hand to mouth

Simply put, Tre has to decide if Dubas sets the market for him. Dubas added a couple of outlying data points.

Like I say, the Flames have 6.3 in cap now. If Tre can’t find satisfactory moves to accommodate Tkachuk’s demands, the potential consequence is that Tkachuk can sit. It’s a possible outcome of the negotiation.

He can stamp his feet and demand any number. But the only one he gets is the one the team agrees to

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Well guess who is slotting in to Tkachuk’s spot right now.

The guy who played well with Backlund and Frolik as a rookie but got deployed in bottom 6 by Gulutzan

Look at the Flames first PP unit. 5 guys all with over 20 PP points . Tkachuk wasn’t the primary focus or lifeblood of the PP, he was one of those 5 that all got points

Do you think that if they slot Bennett on the PP1 in his spot that all of the other guys get their 20 plus points but Bennett doesn’t?

We all like Tkachuk. But deployment of players does affect their production

If you're pinning significant offensive replacement on Bennett you should probably re-evaluate. He might bring the intensity, but he has certainly shown no ability to finish anywhere near the level of a top 6 player or first unit PP guy, let alone a star like Tkachuk and it has nothing to do with deployment.

I like what Bennett has become under Peters, but let's not kid ourselves, he's a long way off from being a mainstay on the Flames PP1. Tkachuk has produced in a variety of capacities and also away from our team's top offensive players and his success as a Flame certainly not simply a result of his deployment on PP1 last year.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

If you're pinning significant offensive replacement on Bennett you should probably re-evaluate. He might bring the intensity, but he has certainly shown no ability to finish anywhere near the level of a top 6 player or first unit PP guy, let alone a star like Tkachuk and it has nothing to do with deployment.

Bennett finished at roughly the same rate as Backlund and Frolik last year, actually. Even with one massive blip of a year in 2017-18 his career shooting percentage isn't too far behind Gaudreau either. Obviously less ice time will result in less shots, of course, but per minute his shot rates have typically aligned with Gaudreau as well at ES.

Now first unit PP, maybe he's not a direct fill-in for Tkachuk's designated role. Maybe you need to rotate Lindholm or Monahan down there as the deflection/rebound guy, a smart PP coach should be flexible enough and able to figure out whose skillsets are suited for which roles. As a LHS, Tkachuk is not the rarest commodity on our PP, Lindholm is (but even there, Ryan, Andersson, and Czarnik are very skilled options). Tkachuk is an extremely important piece but it would take a Gulutzian effort for him to singlehandedly tank our PP by not showing up.

He's not Stamkos but he's not a stonehands either.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

There's no reason for him to give up a 4,5,6,7 year deal and the financial security that comes with it to roll the dice on cashing in down the road. He's likely not going to improve his production drastically over the next few years so there isn't much to gain beyond salary inflation. I know I wouldn't give up a shot at an 8 year 8.5AAV or 5 year mega deal for 2 years at 6.3. It just makes no sense.

Actually, many of the RFA's have done just that. They've signed 2-3 year deals because they want to maximize their earnings over their entire careers. So, they want to have the leverage of being UFA's as soon as possible.

They think differently than you. They know they will make millions regardless. They are willing to gamble that they will make lots more than signing the 8 year deal at $8M or so. If Tkachuk puts up 80 points for 2 seasons, he's likely looking at an 8-year deal at $11M in 2 years.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Financial security. Haha.

Yeah a guy guaranteed over 12 million over 2 years is really going to be living hand to mouth

Simply put, Tre has to decide if Dubas sets the market for him. Dubas added a couple of outlying data points.

Like I say, the Flames have 6.3 in cap now. If Tre can’t find satisfactory moves to accommodate Tkachuk’s demands, the potential consequence is that Tkachuk can sit. It’s a possible outcome of the negotiation.

He can stamp his feet and demand any number. But the only one he gets is the one the team agrees to

There is no way someone passes up possibly $50-60M guaranteed for a 2 year deal unless they completely panic at this point. There is just way too much that could go wrong in terms of injury, performance or even CBA hindrances down the road. Any number of things could result in a player never being able to recoup those potential earnings back.

Tre isn't simply going to let Tkachuk rot for a year and significantly limit his team. It's not that simple at all. Something will get done eventually. It's his ass on the line as well if the team takes a step back because he couldn't get a deal done as much as it is on Tkachuk.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

When the Flames were terrible, yes, as Iginla went so did the flames. But when the Flames were viable contenders, there was more than one guy. When they added Kipper, the team went from a non playoff team with a 50 goal scorer, to a playoff team with a 50 goal scorer. And when Iginla struggled, the Flames had a backstop. During both of their tenures, Kipper was arguably as important as Iginla.

The team makeup is different than when Iginla was here, but Tkachuk is the second best offensive player on the roster. The Flames are absolutely dependent on him to be in contention. If you subtract his 77 points last year or his 30+ goals, where is the team at in the standings? You just don't replace that offensive output with hardwork and backchecking. There's a reason a team with prime monahan and Gaudreau and backlund and Giordano struggled to make the playoffs: alone, they aren't enough.

Nylander is what, the 5th best offensive player on his team? It's not even close to the same thing about who needs who more. The Flames NEED Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is the third best offensive player on the flames by statistical metrics.

Sean Monahan had a higher p/60 while having more defensive zone starts in less games than Matty last season.

Mony always getting slept on round here!!

I also disagree with the bolded- Monahan, Gaudreau, and Backlund are superior players to back then. One could also argue that Gio is playing much better now than he was then.

I don't think we need Tkachuk. He definitely makes us a much harder club to play against. But we don't need him to win games. IT has to make sense for us $ wise, otherwise you let him think about how much money he is losing.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bennett finished at roughly the same rate as Backlund and Frolik last year, actually. Other than one blip of a year his career shooting percentage isn't too far behind Gaudreau either. Obviously less ice time will result in less shots, of course.

Now first unit PP, maybe he's not a direct fill-in for Tkachuk's designated role. Maybe you need to rotate Lindholm or Monahan down there as the deflection/rebound guy, a smart PP coach should be flexible enough and able to figure out whose skillsets are suited for which roles. As a LHS, Tkachuk is not the rarest commodity on our PP, Lindholm is (but even there, Ryan, Andersson, and Czarnik are very skilled options). Tkachuk is an extremely important piece but it would take a Gulutzian effort for him to singlehandedly tank our PP by not showing up.

Let's just not start the whole Bennett debate again....

[868904]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Simply put, Tre has to decide if Dubas sets the market for him. Dubas added a couple of outlying data points.

I really don't think the Marner contract has any relevance.

Aho is the best comparable at 5 years $8.5 million. Aho has the premium position but Tkachuk brings more to the table other than scoring. The advanced stats all suggest they are similar.

Tkachuk camp asking $9.5, Flames countering at $7.5. Pretty easy to see where the contract should be.

Just go in the middle and be done with it. This drags on into the season and the first year is wasted.

Flames need to move up here. The market is the market. At some point, you are just being stubborn. If you have to move some players to get it done, you do it. There are players on the fringe who could be moved to make the cap space: Frolik, Czarnik, Jankowski.