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Old 02-07-2019, 11:50 AM   #41
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Vegas would be most likely to offer sheet somebody IMO
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:52 AM   #42
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Tkachuk is in the same tier as Laine and probably Point.
How do you figure?

Laine is established as probably the best pure goal scorer in the group, other than, arguably, Matthews. In his first two seasons he's scored at a 41 and 44 goal pace respectively. If not for his recent slump he's probably up there near the top tier at the 11+M price point, if slightly below it on account of being a winger. Even with that slump he's still on pace for 39, but will mostly be paid based on his body of work over 3 years rather than this season.

Point scored 30+ goals and 60+ points last year despite starting the year as a depth player and ultimately supplanting Johnson. Now he's the best non-Kucherov player on the best offensive team in the league, and is on pace for 49 goals and 104 points. The only thing holding him back from 10+M (probably) is that he didn't have the pedigree of the top guys coming out of junior, which for some reason still matters.

Tkachuk has had two seasons scoring at a 52 and 59 point pace, and is now on pace for 37 goals and 88 points. He doesn't have the track record of production that either of the two guys above have, nor is he on pace to be a top 10 scorer (goals or points) in the NHL this year like Point. At the start of the year, I'd have put him below guys like Connor and Boeser, who both had 30 goal seasons coming in. Obviously this season has elevated Tkachuk above those guys, which is saying a lot, because they're still good... but he can't jump up with the elite just based on one season's performance.
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:55 AM   #43
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I think the quality of the flames team right now would lessen any worry for him if it came to a holdout.
He'd know that the team is good enough to hold the fort until he signed.
he wouldn't have to worry about his absence putting the team in a hole...
I don't think players are built like that. Much more likely, he will agonize about missing games with his best friends. He will miss out on road trips and team building. He—like all players—sees himself as an integral part of the team's success, and if they are playing well I think it considerably more probable that he will want to be part of it than to sit on the sidelines.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:04 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post
How do you figure?

Laine is established as probably the best pure goal scorer in the group, other than, arguably, Matthews. In his first two seasons he's scored at a 41 and 44 goal pace respectively. If not for his recent slump he's probably up there near the top tier at the 11+M price point, if slightly below it on account of being a winger. Even with that slump he's still on pace for 39, but will mostly be paid based on his body of work over 3 years rather than this season.

Point scored 30+ goals and 60+ points last year despite starting the year as a depth player and ultimately supplanting Johnson. Now he's the best non-Kucherov player on the best offensive team in the league, and is on pace for 49 goals and 104 points. The only thing holding him back from 10+M (probably) is that he didn't have the pedigree of the top guys coming out of junior, which for some reason still matters.

Tkachuk has had two seasons scoring at a 52 and 59 point pace, and is now on pace for 37 goals and 88 points. He doesn't have the track record of production that either of the two guys above have, nor is he on pace to be a top 10 scorer (goals or points) in the NHL this year like Point. At the start of the year, I'd have put him below guys like Connor and Boeser, who both had 30 goal seasons coming in. Obviously this season has elevated Tkachuk above those guys, which is saying a lot, because they're still good... but he can't jump up with the elite just based on one season's performance.
You are focused far to much on just goals/points.


Laine is also mostly one-dimensional albeit elite at that one thing. And yes, those guys get paid.

Tkachuk is a swiss army knife and although elite at nothing (other than pissing off every guy he goes up against), he is above average at almost every aspect of the game.

Tkachuk is miles ahead as far as being a complete player while Laine is miles ahead as a pure goal scorer.

I dont think their deals will look all that different.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:05 PM   #45
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Laine has cost himself millions this year with his inconsistency to the point where it might actually HELP Jets long term by driving down his AAV.


Tkachuk has done the opposite
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:06 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post
How do you figure?

Laine is established as probably the best pure goal scorer in the group, other than, arguably, Matthews. In his first two seasons he's scored at a 41 and 44 goal pace respectively. If not for his recent slump he's probably up there near the top tier at the 11+M price point, if slightly below it on account of being a winger. Even with that slump he's still on pace for 39, but will mostly be paid based on his body of work over 3 years rather than this season.
Goal-scoring is the only thing that Laine does better than Tkachuk. He is already one of the best in the League, but doesn't really do much else anywhere close to the same level. A counter argument could be made that where Laine looks like he could be levelling out after exploding into the NHL, Tkachuk continues to get better and better. Tkachuk presently has scored one-less goal than Laine this season, and he leads him by 22 points.

Quote:
Point scored 30+ goals and 60+ points last year despite starting the year as a depth player and ultimately supplanting Johnson.
Tkachuk would most likely have gotten close to those numbers last year had he played the full season.

Quote:
Now he's the best non-Kucherov player on the best offensive team in the league, and is on pace for 49 goals and 104 points. The only thing holding him back from 10+M (probably) is that he didn't have the pedigree of the top guys coming out of junior, which for some reason still matters.

Tkachuk has had two seasons scoring at a 52 and 59 point pace, and is now on pace for 37 goals and 88 points. He doesn't have the track record of production that either of the two guys above have, nor is he on pace to be a top 10 scorer (goals or points) in the NHL this year like Point. At the start of the year, I'd have put him below guys like Connor and Boeser, who both had 30 goal seasons coming in. Obviously this season has elevated Tkachuk above those guys, which is saying a lot, because they're still good... but he can't jump up with the elite just based on one season's performance.
Which is why I hedged on Point—I said "possibly," and because Point is a really good player. I will say, though, that as good as Point is, Tkachuk is almost two-years younger, and could have more room to grow. He was not far off from Point's production last year, all the while playing predominantly on the second line. Why could he not continue to take steps closer now and in the future?
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:07 PM   #47
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I love tkatchuk but i don't see him as a strong offer sheet risk.

I also would be fine going 5 or 6 years if that gets his number down during the prime of our core. Who knows where the team will at 7 years from now with Gaudreau, Monahan deals being up.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:08 PM   #48
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...Tkachuk is a swiss army knife and although elite at nothing (other than pissing off every guy he goes up against), he is above average at almost every aspect of the game...
Tkachuk is an elite-level passer, and probably has elite vision.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:16 PM   #49
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I'd give up that for him, but at those numbers, the flames would match in a heartbeat.

so what team has the assets to give up two firsts, a second, and a third, plus take on a $10 million contract?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the offer sheet is for more than 5 years, they still divide by 5 to establish the compensation range. For example, an 8x8 offer sheet would still be four 1sts because 8x$8M/5=$12.8M.

So the list of teams that could still hit the top ranges is quite large.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:19 PM   #50
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If that tire fire offers you 4 1st's for Tkachuk you take it and laugh all the way to the draft
Four first-round picks does not guarantee you a 6'2", 21-year-old, penalty-drawing, point-per-game future Captain.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:20 PM   #51
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Tkachuk is an elite-level passer, and probably has elite vision.
You want to call his passing elite, I wouldn't argue but I don't go there. I reserve that title for guys like Kucherov/Wheeler/McDavid/Gaudreau/Crosby types.


As I said though, he is very good at all aspects of the game other than skating where he is OK.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:21 PM   #52
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I would be a little more concerned about this if a guy like Dubas was the GM but Treliving has proven to be a very good negotiator. I'm sure he will get something done that will be good value for the Flames.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:22 PM   #53
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Four first-round picks does not guarantee you a 6'2", 21-year-old, penalty-drawing, point-per-game future Captain.
I still think Monahan will be the next captain of the Flames. He's been groomed to take the "C" since his rookie season.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:24 PM   #54
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You want to call his passing elite, I wouldn't argue but I don't go there. I reserve that title for guys like Kucherov/Wheeler/McDavid/Gaudreau/Crosby types.


As I said though, he is very good at all aspects of the game other than skating where he is OK.
I would say he has:

Elite IQ
Elite agitating (drawing penalties)
Top-line passing
Top-line shooting
Top-line checking (stick and body)
Top-six skating
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:24 PM   #55
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Or Chucky, OR, Gaudreau, Monahan and Lindholm set the bar. You're a team player aren't you.

Leafs and Oilers are both poorly managed and can't negotiate worth a damn. Nothing more.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:26 PM   #56
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I still think Monahan will be the next captain of the Flames. He's been groomed to take the "C" since his rookie season.
Absolutely I agree that Monahan is the next Flames Captain, but Tkachuk is still 100% Captain material.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:27 PM   #57
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Matt is right. Matthews has set the bar. Now Matt has to appreciate he is no Auston Matthews. Let's keep it real Matt. Let's also keep our eye on the prize, and that's making a fair salary while having a chance to win. That is a bar McDavid set that you want no part of.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:38 PM   #58
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I'm still going with my original 7x7.5
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:40 PM   #59
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Colorado as well.
They have their hands full with Rantanen and other RFAs. I doubt they are looking at offer sheeting Tkachuk.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:40 PM   #60
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A poll on this might be interesting to look back on when the deal is done.

Keep it simple....something like what will the total value of his next deal be

18-25M (covers a bridge deal)
35-60M
60+

Maybe not specific enough?
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