Summer 2015 Prospect Ranking - Round 3

[Journey17]

I picked Ferland on the basis of being very likely to at least be an NHL player and high potential of a middle of lineup player who every team needs in the playoffs. I still can't decide between Gilles and Ortio. Likely leaning towards Gilles next time if I have that option.

[Hanna Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

For those voting Ortio over Gillies, out of curiosity, let's say Ortio was another teams prospect. Would you trade Gillies to that team right now to acquire Ortio?

How about I think Ortio should be our No.1 Goalie for now and the future and given the choice of the two occupying the net at the same time ($$). I would trade Gillies in a heartbeat

So would I trade for Ortio, yes very easily

[GGG]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

For those voting Ortio over Gillies, out of curiosity, let's say Ortio was another teams prospect. Would you trade Gillies to that team right now to acquire Ortio?

Would you trade the other way? If I only had one of them in my system I would keep the one I had because I would know them better.

I'm not sure what Gilles has done to separate himself from other college prospects. He played on a highly defensive low scoring team that probably inflated his numbers.

I think in one year we will see much more clearly who is the better prospect is. Ortio will have a year as nhl backup and Gilles a year of AHL starter.

I would argue upside for each is the same. Ortio is closer to achieving that upside and has lower floor.

[BruceCody]

according to plan

Originally Posted by BruceCody

1) Bennett
2) Poirier
3) Gillies
4) Ferland
5) Wotherspoon

P.S. 6) Granlund

[Lanny_McDonald]

Gillies has future starter written all over him and has future star potential.

[Red Menace]

I find it weird that those who say they are voting based on highest potential are not voting for Kylington.
Not to say that is the way that everyone should be making their decision, or even that I am making my pick based on that....but if you are then how can you not take Kylington right after Bennett?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I find it weird that those who say they are voting based on highest potential are not voting for Kylington.
Not to say that is the way that everyone should be making their decision, or even that I am making my pick based on that....but if you are then how can you not take Kylington right after Bennett?

Well I think most, perhaps all, also factor in likelihood of the player reaching that potential. Kylington is far from a sure thing.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I find it weird that those who say they are voting based on highest potential are not voting for Kylington.
Not to say that is the way that everyone should be making their decision, or even that I am making my pick based on that....but if you are then how can you not take Kylington right after Bennett?

Tough when you are comparing positions. How do you compare a guy with #1 starter potential (Gillies) with a dman? Both have high ceilings.

[N-E-B]

Usually go with higher ceiling but with goalies they're so hard to predict so I usually go with who looks like more of a guarantee to pan out, which to me is Ortio.

[mile]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I find it weird that those who say they are voting based on highest potential are not voting for Kylington.
Not to say that is the way that everyone should be making their decision, or even that I am making my pick based on that....but if you are then how can you not take Kylington right after Bennett?

That is assuming Kylington's potential is that of a top pairing defenseman. I'm not so sure I see it that way. I think if he hits his ceiling he will more likely be a #3/4 guy. And like others have said, likelihood to reach that potential is a factor too.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

For those voting Ortio over Gillies, out of curiosity, let's say Ortio was another teams prospect. Would you trade Gillies to that team right now to acquire Ortio?

Yes.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by New Era

Gillies has future starter written all over him and has future star potential.

He does?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

He does?

yes

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I figured this one would be debated heavily, as it should be. There are several "very good" prospects and little difference between them. I know nobody cares, but here's my thought process to ranking these players:

-The breakdown for me is 50% potential since that's the most important aspect of any prospect. Without potential you simply have a bunch of warm bodies, or "plugs" as they are affectionately referred to, and can't hope to build a better team.

-The next 20% is likelihood to translate to the NHL. This is hard to predict, but you can see certain subjective qualities that help prospects make it to the big show. Things like hockey IQ, work ethic, resilience, positive outlook, consistency etc. I have to admit that this is the one that varies a lot between these names since I know a lot about some guys and very little about others.

-10% is positional importance. I rank positions as such: starting goaltenders highest, top pairing defensemen, top 2 line centers, top 6 wingers, 2nd pairing defensemen, bottom 2 line centers, backup goaltender, bottom pairing defenders, and finally bottom 6 wingers.

-Another 10% comes from progression. This is important to see as a prospect matures, fills the holes in his game, and responds appropriately to higher levels of competition. If a prospect fails to progress adequately I rank them lowest against their comparables.

-The final 10% is the sample of play at the professional level. For me, the AHL is a small drop off from the NHL, as all top prospects go to play there for a little while. It's the proving ground to show you actually belong in the NHL. If there happens to be a significant sample at the NHL level, I take it even more into account.

So even though Ferland and Granlund have showed something at the NHL level, it's mostly in a lower positional importance compared to goaltending or defensemen. Culkin has 2nd pairing upside and has progressed steadily every year, with a decent sample in the AHL too, and without any major setbacks along the way. Ortio has shown more in the AHL and NHL, but it's been a long road for him and he's struggled with consistency at times, and he projects to be more of a backup in the NHL than a starter (IMO anyway).

Gillies has elite starter potential, and has been very consistent except for one stretch (that unfortunately happened at the WJC and shortly after). He's got the mental makeup to be a good pro, but I don't know everything about that aspect yet. Once I see how he plays at the pro level I'll have a better handle on him, but everything about Gillies makes me think he's destined to be the next franchise goaltender for the Flames, possibly being in the same conversation as Vernon and Kiprusoff.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by mile

That is assuming Kylington's potential is that of a top pairing defenseman. I'm not so sure I see it that way. I think if he hits his ceiling he will more likely be a #3/4 guy. And like others have said, likelihood to reach that potential is a factor too.

That isn't his ceiling at all. The general view is that his ceiling is Eric Karlsson.

The problem with voting for Kylington at this point, is the likelihood of him hitting his ceiling (or close to it), which is lass than 20% right now.

Conversely, Wotherspoon's ceiling is no where near that, but his likelihood of becoming a solid NHLer is substantially higher.

IMO, prospect ranking should consider several things:

1) how good are they right now?
2) what is their ceiling?
3) what is the likelihood of hitting their ceiling (or at least becoming a player)?
4) how close are they now?

THis is why HF Futures will rank a guy 8.0D as opposed to 8.0

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by enoch root

yes

ok.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Really hard choice already.

I think Gillies, Ortio, Granlund, Ferland, Hickey, Kylington, Andersson and McDonald are all defensible picks. Personally I think Hickey is way ahead of Kylington right now but I can see why some believe Kylington wins the ceiling part of the equation. Hickey just had such a strong year in college, I believe he should shoot up our rankings this year and go in the next few picks.

All the goalies look to have #1 potential but I hate putting goalies super high given how long they take to develop and how many don't pan out. And which one goes first? I kind of view them as being fairly close.

Should I rate Ferland the highest given my love of power forwards and my belief they are quite rare? He is very likely to make the NHL and does have a big upside. I guess that's how I have to vote here.

[dammage79]

Hickey for sure should be top 5 IMO. But I do have Kylington right at the top with Bennett.
I'm really looking forward to seeing him in the prospect camp.

I'm also expecting that once the Flames see what they have in Kylington at this camp they'll get him over to NA if he is willing.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

as for the poll, is it based on potential upside or NHL ready/career?

because Kylington probably has the biggest upside...but he might not play a game in the NHL, whereas an Ortio may be a career backup, but he should be on an NHL for a long time?

just curious how others are framing "best prospect"

Blend of both upside and likelihood I would say. How much you want to weigh one vs the other is up to you

[Enoch Root]

I love Kylington's potential and was thrilled we got him.

But for me, Hickey is way ahead of him right now.

Hopefully Kylington makes a case for himself quickly (this year). And like you, Dammage79, I would like to see him in NA.