Coronavirus All-Purpose Thread: The Second Wave

[Slava]

Lol, gym opens this week after they flip-flop again. This government is hilariously spineless.

[Torture]

Said the quiet part out loud...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1366907393993400321

[corporatejay]

It's almost like the province is trying to get on with life but there's a very vocal minority who want to shut us down forever so they are engaging in theatre.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Torture

Said the quiet part out loud...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1366907393993400321

Is to just me or is that tie like absolutely gigantic. Like Fred Flintstone style tie.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

It's almost like the province is trying to get on with life but there's a very vocal minority who want to shut us down forever so they are engaging in theatre.

Or there is a group of epidemiologists doing math and telling the government what needs to be done. Then the government is undermining them decreasing compliance.

4 more weeks is all it would have taken to be done with Covid. Now we are going to race hospitalizations vs vaccinations until summer. In 6 weeks we will see 1500-2000 cases a day agin and need to shut down.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

It's almost like the province is trying to get on with life but there's a very vocal minority who want to shut us down forever so they are engaging in theatre.

Yeah all those people who are trying to listen to actual experts, are engaging in theatre. The ones saying things like "they want us shut down forever" definitely aren't engaging in theatre.

Or you know, people are trying to take the advice of actual experts, instead of bros that don't think this is serious anymore, cuz squats are life.

We're literally at the finish line, let's not blow it. This government is a joke. Decide what you're going to do, and put the rules in place. This is weak. Alberta hasn't had a real shutdown, so lets stop pretending that's the case.

[Street Pharmacist]

While I don't think opening up is the right move at this time, with over 75 getting vaccinated the mortality asked morbidity is markedly decreased. Case numbers will still be important but less so. High case numbers will still affect the economy, negatively and cause morbidity in the young, but will not be the catastrophe is was earlier. Does that change our calculations?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

While I don't think opening up is the right move at this time, with over 75 getting vaccinated the mortality asked morbidity is markedly decreased. Case numbers will still be important but less so. High case numbers will still affect the economy, negatively and cause morbidity in the young, but will not be the catastrophe is was earlier. Does that change our calculations?

If you are concerned about overwhelming hospitals not really.

In Alberta out of 6000 Hospitalizations 2500 were 70+. So after 75+ we have gotten rid of 1/3 - 5/12 of hospitalizations. So Dec 12 we put in the second set of restrictions at 1500 cases and grew to 2000 and were essentially over full on ICU and Hospitals and were seeing delays in routine hospital services.

So if 1500 is when you need to shutdown with zero vaccines then with 7/12 the hospitalizations you could sustain up to 2500 cases or 2.5 doubling periods from today

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Is to just me or is that tie like absolutely gigantic. Like Fred Flintstone style tie.

This post deserves more thanks because I totally missed it but yes that is a very Fred Flinstoney tie. Purchased from the Bedrock Tie Hut.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

It's almost like the province is trying to get on with life but there's a very vocal minority who want to shut us down forever so they are engaging in theatre.

It's prob because of you and your buddies engaging at the Landmark Country Hills that put us in this situation.

[GGG]

I should add that my post above assumes that hospitalization duration is independent of age which is probably not true either. I am not sure if older patients die faster or take longer to recover but either way would have an impact in the number of cases we could handle without overwhelming hospitals.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by GGG

I should add that my post above assumes that hospitalization duration is independent of age which is probably not true either. I am not sure if older patients die faster or take longer to recover but either way would have an impact in the number of cases we could handle without overwhelming hospitals.

Plus if you factor in more people getting vaccinated during the two double up period before hospitals are maxed out you have even more time.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

It's almost like the province is trying to get on with life but there's a very vocal minority who want to shut us down forever so they are engaging in theatre.

Do you genuinely think anybody wants this? We just want the most efficient way back to normalcy without this open/close/open/close ad infinitum.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Do you genuinely think anybody wants this? We just want the most efficient way back to normalcy without this open/close/open/close ad infinitum.

I think there are people who want effectively zero death, yes and want us shut down until there is a vaccine distributed to the entire population. The goal posts have moved constantly from "flatten the curve" to COVID Zero.

I would be fine opening up fully, right now, with a mask mandate and letting whatever happens, happen.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I think there are people who want effectively zero death, yes and want us shut down until there is a vaccine distributed to the entire population. The goal posts have moved constantly from "flatten the curve" to COVID Zero.

I would be fine opening up fully, right now, with a mask mandate and letting whatever happens, happen.

At what level of hospitalizations would you lock down again?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I think there are people who want effectively zero death, yes and want us shut down until there is a vaccine distributed to the entire population. The goal posts have moved constantly from "flatten the curve" to COVID Zero.

I would be fine opening up fully, right now, with a mask mandate and letting whatever happens, happen.

We flattened the curve, and then when we tried to open up again, it became a sudden crap show. The vaccine is here and by some accounts it looks like timelines are improving for people to get it. I think we’re almost at he finish line here, so why change tack and risk screwing it up. Who wants to die of Covid now that the vaccine is here and it’s just a matter of time before we are all able to get it.

[opendoor]

Anyone thinking that relaxing government restrictions and letting the virus spread widely is a panacea to economic problems isn't looking at the evidence. Opening up and letting a bunch of people get infected doesn't necessarily mean the economy improves much at all, so you end up trading lives for very little in return. Take Florida for instance. They've basically been open since last summer. Yet their traffic to restaurants has been essentially identical to BC's in that span (FL down 38% and BC down 40% from normal). And their unemployment rate curve is the exact same as places that have had stricter measures but far fewer deaths (BC, Washington, Oregon, etc.).

The fact is, if you let the virus run rampant, a large section of the population just stays home. And the amount of people staying home is enough to cause serious economic harm on its own. However, at the same time the amount of people mixing with one another is enough to infect a significant portion of the population.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I think there are people who want effectively zero death, yes and want us shut down until there is a vaccine distributed to the entire population. The goal posts have moved constantly from "flatten the curve" to COVID Zero.

I would be fine opening up fully, right now, with a mask mandate and letting whatever happens, happen.

You think that there are people who want to wait until covid doesn't exist anymore? Is that the vocal minority your where speaking of?

Have you seen what happens when you just let everything go? It's a mess.

Have you seen what's happening in Manaus Brazil? Their thoughts of herd immunity have been shattered and currently people who have been sick already are getting re-infected.

This is why we have variants and this is how we completely blow it.

What happens to the economy if our cases skyrocket with a new variant? I can promise you that all the businesses that are hurting now will be hurting way more.

The answer to the economic issue is to get cases down to a level where we can easily control outbreaks, trace and allow businesses to be more open. Not only because the government says we can but so people feel comfortable going to those businesses.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

Ontario government is running a new commercial, I just saw it yesterday and was frankly taken aback.

The commercial ends with the following message:

"Until we all get the Vaccine, stay home, save lives"

Is this common new messaging on COVID? Stay home until EVERYONE has received the vaccine? Thats not going to be until well into 2022, none of these vaccines are even approved for kids yet.

So I should stay at home for another year? Even after all the high risk people have been vaccinated? Thats absurd.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ontario-co...154811525.html

[Slava]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

You think that there are people who want to wait until covid doesn't exist anymore? Is that the vocal minority your where speaking of?

Have you seen what happens when you just let everything go? It's a mess.

Have you seen what's happening in Manaus Brazil? Their thoughts of herd immunity have been shattered and currently people who have been sick already are getting re-infected.

This is why we have variants and this is how we completely blow it.

What happens to the economy if our cases skyrocket with a new variant? I can promise you that all the businesses that are hurting now will be hurting way more.

The answer to the economic issue is to get cases down to a level where we can easily control outbreaks, trace and allow businesses to be more open. Not only because the government says we can but so people feel comfortable going to those businesses.

You say this, and yet you’ve thanked this on the same page.

Originally Posted by GGG

Or there is a group of epidemiologists doing math and telling the government what needs to be done. Then the government is undermining them decreasing compliance.

4 more weeks is all it would have taken to be done with Covid. Now we are going to race hospitalizations vs vaccinations until summer. In 6 weeks we will see 1500-2000 cases a day agin and need to shut down.

I’m not in favour of opening everything and just letting the virus run rampant, but I do favour a middle of the road approach. We have crossed the line from concerns about our healthcare system and are moving towards case counts and trying to stem the spread entirely. As the vaccine is more widely spread, the case count matters less and less. If we have 100 new cases today and it’s all people under 40, it’s far less of a concern than what we saw earlier. We know that, and it’s not a stretch to suggest that.

I would also add that we have a pretty good idea of where new cases are these days. To the surprise of no one, it’s meat packing facilities, correctional facilities and congregated living. Of course there are other places, but that’s the vast majority. Has there been a documented of someone in a library contracted the virus? I highly doubt it, but we still had to have these closed for months. Would a retail store that has masking and distancing measures in place be cause for concern if they could have a more normal number of people inside? Almost surely. Instead we’re glossing over common sense and people line up outside. (What in the world people need so badly at IKEA is a whole other discussion, but I digress)

Anyway, I’m fine with the masking, social distancing and all of those precautions. I follow all of this religiously. But, that doesn’t mean I agree with the continued hammering of small businesses and insufficient supports for them while that happens.