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Old 01-21-2021, 01:49 PM   #9941
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BC actually lifted restrictions on pools/gyms very early on. When slightly tighter restrictions were reinstated in November, they did not place any additional restrictions on pools/gyms.
And as we have seen you can't use that as a gauge because all the provinces are doing things differently.
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:15 PM   #9942
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So, did I miss the announcement about the current restrictions and for how much longer they are being extended?
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:28 PM   #9943
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So, did I miss the announcement about the current restrictions and for how much longer they are being extended?
Current restrictions will remain in place "a little while longer." No changes today, no timeline.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/no-chang...ules-1.5276671
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Old 01-22-2021, 08:05 AM   #9944
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Current restrictions will remain in place "a little while longer." No changes today, no timeline.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/no-chang...ules-1.5276671
I see why. We're finally down to October numbers, where we all knew poop was going to hit the fan at that point. If things were relaxed too much now, I bet we'd go right back up.

but damn I feel bad for businesses owners and their employees.
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Old 01-22-2021, 08:12 AM   #9945
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I know it sucks but I would like to see restrictions continue at least another big shipment of vaccines arrive.

At least that way, people are being vaccinated to try and keep the hospital numbers stable.

So, another 2 weeks?
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Old 01-22-2021, 08:18 AM   #9946
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Keep it this way until the end of February. It's manageable for most people now that they've allowed a bit of outdoor human contact. And give proper support to people who own and work in industries that need to remain closed, like restaurants, the arts, etc.
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Old 01-22-2021, 10:04 AM   #9947
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Keep it this way until the end of February. It's manageable for most people now that they've allowed a bit of outdoor human contact. And give proper support to people who own and work in industries that need to remain closed, like restaurants, the arts, etc.
I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that this will just crush a lot of these businesses. I look at a business like a restaurant over the past year. They've been closed for say 4 months at this point, and with that it would be about 6 months of closures. They could sell online for pick-ups, but really for a lot of these businesses that is barely enough to keep the lights on. Then the times they were open they were at restricted capacity. Let's call that 50%, although it was less at some of the time, and they probably aren't always full.

So, for a restaurant in Calgary, you're saying that they'd somehow survive on half capacity for what amounts to half the year (and let's not forget that part of the missing half was the run up to Christmas, which is their best time). That's a nightmare scenario. Not many businesses are coming out the other side of that.

And yes, I know that you're saying that we'd give proper supports, but that's an astronomical amount of money. And in all honestly, it can't be a loan in my eyes, because the debt load for those businesses has to be overwhelming as it is.
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Old 01-22-2021, 10:27 AM   #9948
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I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that this will just crush a lot of these businesses. I look at a business like a restaurant over the past year. They've been closed for say 4 months at this point, and with that it would be about 6 months of closures. They could sell online for pick-ups, but really for a lot of these businesses that is barely enough to keep the lights on. Then the times they were open they were at restricted capacity. Let's call that 50%, although it was less at some of the time, and they probably aren't always full.

So, for a restaurant in Calgary, you're saying that they'd somehow survive on half capacity for what amounts to half the year (and let's not forget that part of the missing half was the run up to Christmas, which is their best time). That's a nightmare scenario. Not many businesses are coming out the other side of that.

And yes, I know that you're saying that we'd give proper supports, but that's an astronomical amount of money. And in all honestly, it can't be a loan in my eyes, because the debt load for those businesses has to be overwhelming as it is.
Said it before and I'll say it again, it drives me nuts that the hardest hit are the small family owned businesses and the large multinational corps have seen profits skyrocket during this time period.

Even in industries where overall sales are probably down (food service), it'll only help the big chains in the long run. When things come back, they'll have no local competition left.

But you're right, we're so deep into this, I don't see any way the government can continue to support small business any longer.
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Old 01-22-2021, 10:48 AM   #9949
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I admittedly don't keep up to date with this thread as I need a break from the 'Rona now and then, so I apologize if this has been shared previously.

Reinfections More Likely With New Coronavirus Variants, Evidence Suggests
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Old 01-22-2021, 12:49 PM   #9950
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I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that this will just crush a lot of these businesses. I look at a business like a restaurant over the past year. They've been closed for say 4 months at this point, and with that it would be about 6 months of closures. They could sell online for pick-ups, but really for a lot of these businesses that is barely enough to keep the lights on. Then the times they were open they were at restricted capacity. Let's call that 50%, although it was less at some of the time, and they probably aren't always full.

So, for a restaurant in Calgary, you're saying that they'd somehow survive on half capacity for what amounts to half the year (and let's not forget that part of the missing half was the run up to Christmas, which is their best time). That's a nightmare scenario. Not many businesses are coming out the other side of that.

And yes, I know that you're saying that we'd give proper supports, but that's an astronomical amount of money. And in all honestly, it can't be a loan in my eyes, because the debt load for those businesses has to be overwhelming as it is.
How do you get around that? Open up restaurants at full capacity, cases will skyrocket, no one will go there anyway, and they still fail.
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Old 01-22-2021, 12:55 PM   #9951
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I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that this will just crush a lot of these businesses. I look at a business like a restaurant over the past year. They've been closed for say 4 months at this point, and with that it would be about 6 months of closures. They could sell online for pick-ups, but really for a lot of these businesses that is barely enough to keep the lights on. Then the times they were open they were at restricted capacity. Let's call that 50%, although it was less at some of the time, and they probably aren't always full.

So, for a restaurant in Calgary, you're saying that they'd somehow survive on half capacity for what amounts to half the year (and let's not forget that part of the missing half was the run up to Christmas, which is their best time). That's a nightmare scenario. Not many businesses are coming out the other side of that.

And yes, I know that you're saying that we'd give proper supports, but that's an astronomical amount of money. And in all honestly, it can't be a loan in my eyes, because the debt load for those businesses has to be overwhelming as it is.
Cannot believe the silence from Kenny regarding the business closures. What is the end game? There're so few details regarding any return to business for restaurants, bars, gyms etc... At one time they said >7% infection rate, then they gave dates, now the wording is "until further notice". But c'mon, we have to assume it revolves around hospitalizations and ICU numbers but what is that threshold? Is there some other metric they are going by? Does the UCP even know? What was once two weeks has now been well over two months for some and hitting the two month mark for others. Just crushing for so many businesses and their employees.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:09 PM   #9952
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Cannot believe the silence from Kenny regarding the business closures. What is the end game? There're so few details regarding any return to business for restaurants, bars, gyms etc... At one time they said >7% infection rate, then they gave dates, now the wording is "until further notice". But c'mon, we have to assume it revolves around hospitalizations and ICU numbers but what is that threshold? Is there some other metric they are going by? Does the UCP even know? What was once two weeks has now been well over two months for some and hitting the two month mark for others. Just crushing for so many businesses and their employees.
To end up at the same number of cases you need equal weeks of closure to weeks of opening assumin RT is as much over 1 open as it is under 1 closed. So if itís takes until end of June to have vaccinations affect transmission then we have 20 weeks to go. We have been locked down for about 8 weeks so far so about 6 to go. This would assume that hitting June with 1000-1500 cases would be acceptable.

The government should be coming out with thresholds and being honest with people about what it takes to get to summer. Can you reopen some businesses? Probably once you understand the school impacts. Indoor social gatherings need to be extended until end of Feb.

The who recommended a threshold of 5% positive for opening schools. From an ICU standpoint I think there were 90 or so dedicated Covid ICU beds so we arenít there yet. Have other Hospitals services been restored yet? Until the hospitals are fully functional again and out of Covid triage mode I think you keep extended restrictions.

Fully agree with you that the government needs to have public targets. But keep in mind that at 400-600 cases per day that is 4-6 weeks of runway before we are back to where we were before

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Old 01-22-2021, 01:22 PM   #9953
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this morning I caught a bit of Hinshaw from yesterday.
She said there are as many people in the hospital right now as there was in early December.

we're still deep in it.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:30 PM   #9954
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Yeah I'm starting to feel like our best case scenario is a slow decline until we can follow last years trajectory. In other words, still locked down by March with a May easing.

Hope I'm wrong.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:30 PM   #9955
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this morning I caught a bit of Hinshaw from yesterday.
She said there are as many people in the hospital right now as there was in early December.

we're still deep in it.
I looked at the graphs on the Covid website and the major urban areas, Calgary and Edmonton, currently have hospitalization rates at the same level as mid to late November. What I found interesting though is that throughout the lockdown period rates of hospitalization in the rural areas, North and South specifically, have actually seen an increase. It seems like people in urban areas are being pretty responsible and reasonable in terms of following guidelines but rural Albertans don't give a ####.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:36 PM   #9956
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I looked at the graphs on the Covid website and the major urban areas, Calgary and Edmonton, currently have hospitalization rates at the same level as mid to late November. What I found interesting though is that throughout the lockdown period rates of hospitalization in the rural areas, North and South specifically, have actually seen an increase. It seems like people in urban areas are being pretty responsible and reasonable in terms of following guidelines but rural Albertans don't give a ####.
This is their first wave. It just wasnít really an issue in May relative to Calgary so they havenít experienced the same levels of deaths to have a personal connection to the consequences.
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:36 PM   #9957
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I looked at the graphs on the Covid website and the major urban areas, Calgary and Edmonton, currently have hospitalization rates at the same level as mid to late November. What I found interesting though is that throughout the lockdown period rates of hospitalization in the rural areas, North and South specifically, have actually seen an increase. It seems like people in urban areas are being pretty responsible and reasonable in terms of following guidelines but rural Albertans don't give a ####.
this is a tricky area. you heard several questions yesterday to Hinshaw about opening up by zone (with the implication that non-CGY/EDM zones are raring to go- Med Hat specifically mentioned)...and the truth is its probably patchy- some towns low covid, some towns high covid but this is clearly not a CGY/EDM versus the rest problem any more


R value is higher in "rest of Alberta" than either CGY or EDM (not very granular I admit)
test positive rates last I saw were highest in North, then Central Zone
and the sickest patients (sometimes) end up in one of the two largest cities, so their hospital numbers are not just their catchment


so Hinshaw is right in saying this is a provincial issue right now- not saying rural is the problem to be clear , but they aren't in the clear either


in Manitoba for example their latest measures actually freed up the city (their measures were pretty tight before though) but have kept a clamp on the North
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:58 PM   #9958
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How do you get around that? Open up restaurants at full capacity, cases will skyrocket, no one will go there anyway, and they still fail.
I wish I knew. I'm not just being difficult when I say that keeping everyone shutdown is not a viable solution, but then neither is opening everything up. We can't just open the doors and have this spread like wildfire, and at the same time some people are paying severe consequences with their businesses effectively moth-balled. It's grim.

My thought is that the government doesn't know what metrics to go by for re-opening, and I don't see that as a failure. It's not like we have an easy model to follow because we've just never done things like this before! As a result they're being ambiguous and basically just not committing to specific targets.

If I were the government and in charge today, I'd be approaching Johnson and Johnson with a deal for first access to their vaccine in exchange for a tax break. Send us ~35 million doses ASAP and we'll pay you for that easy access.

I'd do that deal with J&J for a few reasons:

A) it's a one dose vaccine, which makes a lot of this much easier
B) it doesn't require the -75 freezers, making it useful in outlying areas and not causing the logistics issues we see with Pfizer/BioNtech
c) we know they're nearing the end of their trials and this will be released shortly, while we're delayed with Pfizer anyway.

To me, this seems like an absolute game-changer, and one that I can only hope the government is working toward behind the scenes. But...the big disclaimer is that I have no expertise in this field and am an amateur epidemiologist like everyone has become over the past 10 months!
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Old 01-22-2021, 02:29 PM   #9959
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I wish I knew. I'm not just being difficult when I say that keeping everyone shutdown is not a viable solution, but then neither is opening everything up. We can't just open the doors and have this spread like wildfire, and at the same time some people are paying severe consequences with their businesses effectively moth-balled. It's grim.
I agree that there aren't any easy answers. My thoughts are based mostly on the idea that social interaction among humans is a necessity. It's one of our basic biological instincts, so to limit it the way we have been is very damaging. Whereas, no one needs to eat at a restaurant or work out at a gym, for example. We need food and we need exercise, but the form that takes can vary.

However, at the same time, I realize that the people who work in these areas are suffering tremendous mental, emotional, financial, and probably physical pain as well. I feel guilty even suggesting it, when I am fortunate to have not been financially affected by the pandemic. I have a lot of friends who work in the arts though and most of them haven't had work, other than maybe a rare gig or two this past summer and a bit of online stuff, since March. Their lives have been torn apart and careers they worked years to build devastated.

But I don't know what a good option is, that doesn't involve Covid magically going away. If the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is successful and we could get enough doses for our entire population in a few months, that would be amazing. I haven't heard anything about its efficacy. With Pfizer and Moderna being so successful, I hate the thought of having to "settle" for a vaccine that is a lot less effective. But maybe we do that for the time being, and then look at a better booster down the road, when we can take a little more time?
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Old 01-22-2021, 02:37 PM   #9960
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Cannot believe the silence from Kenny regarding the business closures. What is the end game? There're so few details regarding any return to business for restaurants, bars, gyms etc... At one time they said >7% infection rate, then they gave dates, now the wording is "until further notice". But c'mon, we have to assume it revolves around hospitalizations and ICU numbers but what is that threshold? Is there some other metric they are going by? Does the UCP even know? What was once two weeks has now been well over two months for some and hitting the two month mark for others. Just crushing for so many businesses and their employees.
The UCP #### the bed on contract tracing. I still think that is key to re-opening and keeping places open.

Having a good useful app and contact tracers would allow the isolation of those affected.
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