Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure I get what you mean. Not about laziness. You’re kind of assuming Tre is actively shopping Neal and Lucic is only option left.

Whereas one reasonable possibility is that Holland is shopping Lucic like crazy and Tre is only one listening. This is maybe people’s belief that sweetener could have been better.

Seems out of character for Treliving to entertain Holland but not check elsewhere as well. If Holland calls him, wanting to trade for Neal, I'd imagine Tre either starts seeing what other deals are there, or he already has a strong feel for what the market is.

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure I get what you mean. Not about laziness. You’re kind of assuming Tre is actively shopping Neal and Lucic is only option left.

Whereas one reasonable possibility is that Holland is shopping Lucic like crazy and Tre is only one listening. This is maybe people’s belief that sweetener could have been better.

I suspect both GM's shopped their guy like crazy and when they called around the league they were told "There's another team in Alberta that's probably your only option."

[agulati]

Tre has always been rumored to be extremely active on the phone lines, so I am sure this was the only option available for trade. He probably did all the due diligence.

[dino7c]

I'm sure Tre called around but the trade was made mid July...what was the ####ing rush??

Oilers would have done this deal any time, should have held out for more.

I know we are putting a positive spin on things but with 90% of the hockey world thinks its a bad deal for the Flames it probably is. It may not turn out as bad as some think but Flames are assuming all the risk for some reason when it was the Oilers who had the worse contract.

[Sylvanfan]

How many goals does Neal have to score to avoid being bought out eventually?
Say they do play him on the top line and he scores 22 goals. That means someone like Chiasson drops down a line and he would be lucky to put up the 15 goals that Kassian was allowed to do in that role and so forth. If he scores 22 this year, and than goes down to 18 the next year, and goal scoring is his game, is it enough to keep him?

Go back to the after the Allstar game in 2018, than all of last year. He has 10 goals in 86 regular season games. The signs of a decline are clearly there, and he will be 32 when the season starts. When the Flames signed him I figured they would be lucky to get 100 goals from Neal in 5 years, and that was contingent on him getting 25 or so in the first year. So really would 75 goals in the next 4 years be enough...probably not.

That all said, the Flames will be lucky to get 40 from Lucic.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I'm sure Tre called around but the trade was made mid July...what was the ####ing rush??

Oilers would have done this deal any time

Maybe not? There were rumors of Eriksson being thrown in the talks as well. Maybe it was either trade away Neal, or lose the only team who was partially interested?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I'm sure Tre called around but the trade was made mid July...what was the ####ing rush??

Oilers would have done this deal any time, should have held out for more.

I know we are putting a positive spin on things but with 90% of the hockey world thinks its a bad deal for the Flames it probably is. It may not turn out as bad as some think but Flames are assuming all the risk for some reason when it was the Oilers who had the worse contract.

There is a value, to the coaches, the players, and the GM, of knowing who is in the lineup at an earlier stage. I'm not sure how much value, but its not nothing. And I'm thinking Treliving just weighed those kind of factors against what could be squeezed in addition (or the possibility it all falls apart and he's stuck with Neal).

[Toonage]

Conversely its 6 weeks or so until training camp.

Why not now if you have a deal?

Wait for teams to start getting rosters together or signing free agents, PTOs?

You want Neal gone, the opportunity is there, its only going to get tougher to make a deal. Ultimately, as I voted, I'm in different. Now, later, doesn't matter. But may as well get it done when you have the chance and know its not going to get any better.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I know we are putting a positive spin on things but with 90% of the hockey world thinks its a bad deal for the Flames it probably is. It may not turn out as bad as some think but Flames are assuming all the risk for some reason when it was the Oilers who had the worse contract.

As a disclaimer, I am on the fence about this trade. I would have preferred to give Neal a second chance or traded him with a pick for Turris, but 90% of the hockey world was ready to anoint the Oilers a potential dynasty a few years back too. A great chunk of the Hockey world saw Lightning win the Stanley Cup last year. Hockey media appears to follow herd mentality at times (though they might be right on the point of us losing the trade)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by agulati

Maybe not? There were rumors of Eriksson being thrown in the talks as well. Maybe it was either trade away Neal, or lose the only team who was partially interested?

I would have taken my chances on Lucic still being there in October or whenever

[agulati]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I would have taken my chances on Lucic still being there in October or whenever

Fair enough. I don't see this debate in general being resolved any time soon though. I hope Lucic is able to provide the physicality and toughness we need. I also hope he is able to rejuvenate his career the same way some other ex-oilers have done. Oilers, historically, appear to have had a toxic environment.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by agulati

As a disclaimer, I am on the fence about this trade. I would have preferred to give Neal a second chance or traded him with a pick for Turris, but 90% of the hockey world was ready to anoint the Oilers a potential dynasty a few years back too. A great chunk of the Hockey world saw Lightning win the Stanley Cup last year. Hockey media appears to follow herd mentality at times (though they might be right on the point of us losing the trade)

Flames could luck out and this breaks their way...I doubt it though

Both guys continue to suck (most likely)=Oilers win

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Conversely its 6 weeks or so until training camp.

Why not now if you have a deal?

Wait for teams to start getting rosters together or signing free agents, PTOs?

You want Neal gone, the opportunity is there, its only going to get tougher to make a deal. Ultimately, as I voted, I'm in different. Now, later, doesn't matter. But may as well get it done when you have the chance and know its not going to get any better.

Because its a bad deal lol...Oilers were in the desperate situation

Like I said the Oilers would have bought out Lucic for 1.9M in a heartbeat...thanks to the Flames they can give Neal a shot and if it doesn't work out they are still in a spot they would take today.

Why the #### did we help them out?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure I get what you mean. Not about laziness. You’re kind of assuming Tre is actively shopping Neal and Lucic is only option left.

Whereas one reasonable possibility is that Holland is shopping Lucic like crazy and Tre is only one listening. This is maybe people’s belief that sweetener could have been better.

Yeah I don't have a clue.

But that's the beautiful thing about assumptions, right? If I'm right this was their only course of action.

So are the assumptions extreme or wrong?

1. Wanting Neal gone seems like a safe one, but I don't have the inside knowledge of the room. However there are two scenarios here. One, is the guy is poison and had to go. The less extreme reason for wanting him gone is knowing you won't be giving him the top six minutes needed to turn it around. Either way you want him out.

2. The ownership was against a long term buy out. Don't know this one either, but Treliving's comments to Haynes that he summarized sure points to this as likely. If true, it's easier to move the player for a player harder to buy out since you're not giving up the option if you never planned on using it anyway.

So from there I'm guessing neither guy could find a deal (Holland/Treliving) that didn't come with getting an ugly asset back. But once again an assumption.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by agulati

Maybe not? There were rumors of Eriksson being thrown in the talks as well. Maybe it was either trade away Neal, or lose the only team who was partially interested?

I have mentioned it before, but I think the reason it got done is because this was probably the only scenario in which Flames could move Neal without adding assets, in fact actually got in the deal (cap space and potential 3rd). If the Eriksson Lucic thing went through, there aren't any chairs left where you can move Neal without giving something significant.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Because its a bad deal lol...Oilers were in the desperate situation

Like I said the Oilers would have bought out Lucic for 1.9M in a heartbeat...thanks to the Flames they can give Neal a shot and if it doesn't work out they are still in a spot they would take today.

Why the #### did we help them out?

Oilers aren't in a position to buy out Neal. They have too much on the books already. I can't see them eating at least 6.5M cap space over the majority of McDavid's contract.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Oilers aren't in a position to buy out Neal. They have too much on the books already. I can't see them eating at least 6.5M cap space over the majority of McDavid's contract.

Irrelevant

Buying Neal out costs less cap space than keeping him...if he is useless they will buy him out


And if Vancouver traded for Lucic we would have a long thread making fun of them...don't kid yourself. Anyway I will be cheering for Lucic, just seems like one of those deals we will look back on and think WTF was Brad doing.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah I don't have a clue.



But that's the beautiful thing about assumptions, right? If I'm right this was their only course of action.



So are the assumptions extreme or wrong?



1. Wanting Neal gone seems like a safe one, but I don't have the inside knowledge of the room. However there are two scenarios here. One, is the guy is poison and had to go. The less extreme reason for wanting him gone is knowing you won't be giving him the top six minutes needed to turn it around. Either way you want him out.



2. The ownership was against a long term buy out. Don't know this one either, but Treliving's comments to Haynes that he summarized sure points to this as likely. If true, it's easier to move the player for a player harder to buy out since you're not giving up the option if you never planned on using it anyway.



So from there I'm guessing neither guy could find a deal (Holland/Treliving) that didn't come with getting an ugly asset back. But once again an assumption.

If we follow this line of reasoning, then both teams were motivated (or needed) to move their respective players. Why then is it unreasonable for people to be upset that there was not more coming the Flames’ way for taking on the much riskier and more problematic contract?

A conditional 3rd is a joke and only comes into effect if the trade goes really sideways for the Flames. That’s problem one. Then you have the fact that there was nothing received to compensate for the fact that Lucic’s contract is basically not removable in any way whereas Neal can be bought out, traded, or demoted no problem.

It’s a double whammy that goes beyond “crap in, crap out.” The Flames took on a bigger risk and didn’t get anything for doing so, outside of some relief for Murray Edwards’ pocketbook.

I’d be fine with this if there were more of a sweetener involved. The fact there wasn’t tells me Treliving got desperate or was given marching orders from a cheapskate owner.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Because its a bad deal lol...Oilers were in the desperate situation

Like I said the Oilers would have bought out Lucic for 1.9M in a heartbeat...thanks to the Flames they can give Neal a shot and if it doesn't work out they are still in a spot they would take today.

Why the #### did we help them out?

Once again I think we can assume the Flames were equally as interested in getting rid of Neal and knew this was the only deal they would get.

Treliving isn't a "rush" guy.

He has to make a call about the market. Is it going your way? Against you? Is this the only option? Is Holland likely to soften or harden with time? Once a GM asks himself these questions he acts accordingly.

I think it silly to assume he didn't ponder any of that and just acted because ... why not.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

If we follow this line of reasoning, then both teams were motivated (or needed) to move their respective players. Why then is it unreasonable for people to be upset that there was not more coming the Flames’ way for taking on the much riskier and more problematic contract?

A conditional 3rd is a joke and only comes into effect if the trade goes really sideways for the Flames. That’s problem one. Then you have the fact that there was nothing received to compensate for the fact that Lucic’s contract is basically not removable in any way whereas Neal can be bought out, traded, or demoted no problem.

It’s a double whammy that goes beyond “crap in, crap out.” The Flames took on a bigger risk and didn’t get anything for doing so, outside of some relief for Murray Edwards’ pocketbook.

It's not unreasonable at all.

And I'm guessing Treliving tried to extract more as well. Are you of the opinion that he could have done better but chose not to? That would be odd wouldn't it?

Your next issue. Do you think they didn't ponder which contract was worse? Didn't ponder the NMC? Didn't ponder if they could move Lucic if they needed to?

If true, they should be fired.

I'll assume though that they think there are cap floor takers down the road that they can move him too, and the ownership is happier with the actual savings on the books, not to mention a lower cap hit for a player that they see fitting better.